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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I'm not expecting much. Strictly anecdotal, but good winters ( well, most would consider this a "good" winter so far, due to mild temps ) in my experience usually show an early signal with a cold, icy or snowy Dec. Likewise, dud winters usually follow snowless or mild Dec. But we can still sneak in a good storm, like Jan 2016. That said, I have been following PB's analysis and I give him great weight, so hope he is right.

All we can say is the pattern looks to improve after the 20th. I get it, you can’t shovel potential! We very could score a nice storm or continue the bad luck. For us to get a storm we need a better pattern so we have that.

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16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. 
 

Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases.

Time will tell - now you have committed to 7-8-1-2 - lets see how long it takes to find a reliable plot that shows that - lets see how long it takes for the models to come around and start showing a more suppressed storm track in the medium range after day 5  - NAO is still showing no signs of going negative anytime soon -same with the AO

nao.sprd2.gifao.sprd2.gif

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This was the 6th year that Newark made it to 70 degrees in January. It was the 4th time since 1998.

 

A62C7653-9D6A-4716-9DA6-D4000CA91AFA.png.5e8d3043aa8032b3a08b697dfe66c8c5.png

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1950 74 0
2 2007 72 0
3 2002 70 0
- 1998 70 0
- 1932 70 0
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13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Time will tell - now you have committed to 7-8-1-2 - lets see how long it takes to find a reliable plot that shows that - lets see how long it takes for the models to come around and start showing a more suppressed storm track in the medium range after day 5  - NAO is still showing no signs of going negative anytime soon -same with the AO

nao.sprd2.gifao.sprd2.gif

I have provided proof with the roundy plots which you fail to acknowledge. I also have the ensembles all agreeing on a pattern change. Those plots you posted are off the GEFS and only going out to jan 16. So if the pattern is supposed to flip after the 20th what do they prove? 

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54 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. 
 

Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases.

MJO has also been correcting longer and stronger into 7 and now 8....Interesting piece on the bias to the COD at the end of the run I never knew that

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

A cool 60 out here with the January sea breeze. Wish I was in the city and NJ in the 70s

I'm in NJ and it has gotten cloudy and quite windy, not really a nice day just warm....people outside doing stuff but it's just to get a break. It was sunny briefly but that's gone. 

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

I'm in NJ and it has gotten cloudy and quite windy, not really a nice day just warm....people outside doing stuff but it's just to get a break. It was sunny briefly but that's gone. 

Really? Was sunny here for much of the day. 

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4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Gotta love Long Island. 55 and cloudy

 

was perfect bringing the Christmas stuff in 

 

If it wasn’t for the wind I’d  fire up the grill

North shore was in the 60s today

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The 68 at POU is only 2 off their all-time January high of 70 in 2007.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kpou

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2007 70 0
2 1932 69 2
3 1950 68 0
4 1937 67 0
5 2016 65 0

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. 
 

Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases.

Euro has been playing catchup  with the mjo

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Amen, we've only had an inch at a time this winter so a few inches would be like a HECS.  LOL.    Currently partly sunny here and 62.   We've had colder days in April!

Actually, we have had colder days in August, twice in Central Park history has a daily August maximum failed to reach 60 degrees.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Really? Was sunny here for much of the day. 

Mostly cloudy today just ESE of you, had about 2-2.5 hours of sun. Maxed out at 59.

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28 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Actually, we have had colder days in August, twice in Central Park history has a daily August maximum failed to reach 60 degrees.

Good to see you posting here again 

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5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

9:41

 

60 here.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

34 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Actually, we have had colder days in August, twice in Central Park history has a daily August maximum failed to reach 60 degrees.

Great to see both of you here! Hope all is well 

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As of 3 pm, daily record high temperatures include:

Albany: 66° (old record: 57°, 1975)
Allentown: 67° (old record: 66°, 1975)
Atlantic City: 63° (old record: 62°, 2018)
Boston: 69° (old record: 62°, 1975)
Bridgeport: 57° (old record: 56°, 1975)
Concord: 61° (old record: 58°, 1980)
Dayton, OH: 67° (old record: 59°, 2013, 2017, and 2018)
Erie, PA: 68° (old record: 66°, 1890)
Hartford: 68° (old record: 60°, 1983)
Lexington, KY: 75° (old record: 66°, 2018)
Louisville: 70° (old record: 69°, 1890)
New York City-LGA: 66° (old record: 62°, 1975)
New York City-NYC: 68° (old record: 63°, 1975)
Newark: 70° (old record: 66°, 1975)
Poughkeepsie: 68° (old record: 63°, 1975)
Portland: 60° (old record: 54°, 1983 and 2017)
Providence: 65° (old record: 61°, 1975)
White Plains: 65° (old record: 57°, 1975)

In addition, daily rainfall records were set in parts of the Great Lakes region. Daily records through 3 pm include:

Detroit: 1.86" (old daily record: 0.96", 1905; old January daily record: 1.76", January 12, 1908)
Indianapolis: 1.32" (old daily record: 1.16", 2005)
South Bend, IN: 2.31" (old daily record: 0.70", 1895)
Toledo: 1.08" (old daily record: 0.76", 2013)

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53 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Actually, we have had colder days in August, twice in Central Park history has a daily August maximum failed to reach 60 degrees.

Yeah, the 70 at Newark was warmer than 8-29-17.

2017-08-29 69
 
 

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