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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Looks right on schedule. 

 

 

Day 9 

2058782123_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9413600JAN9DAY9.thumb.png.6745480ced537509ad96a111d0d9cc84.png

 

 

Day 10 - 15 .

 

1036742935_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-9867200JAN9DAY10-15.thumb.png.991bab0e031ac4c2f4d6fb927e02a6dd.png

 

 

Expect Barney to show up. 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The bulk of our seasonal snowfall usually comes after January 19th. Just goes to show what an extreme outlier the 10-11 winter was.

NYC snowfall 

............By January 19th......After January 19th

18-19....7.1......13.4

17-18....17.9....23.0

16-17....10.1....20.1

15-16....0.4......32.4

14-15....3.7......46.6

13-14....15.0....42.4

12-13....5.1.....21.0

11-12....2.9.....4.5

10-11...31.9....30.0

09-10....13.2...38.2

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Yeah I remember in late January 2011 JB screaming "Winter in the Eastern US is over AS WE KNOW EET!" 

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3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Yeah I remember in late January 2011 JB screaming "Winter in the Eastern US is over AS WE KNOW EET!" 

turned out it was-I think we had 3-4 inches after the pattern broke down in early February....it never reloaded, just became warm and dry which was a god send with 50 inches of snow on the ground....imagine if a bunch of cutters had set up ala Jan 96?

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17 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Looks right on schedule. 

 

 

Day 9 

2058782123_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9413600JAN9DAY9.thumb.png.6745480ced537509ad96a111d0d9cc84.png

 

 

Day 10 - 15 .

 

1036742935_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-9867200JAN9DAY10-15.thumb.png.991bab0e031ac4c2f4d6fb927e02a6dd.png

 

 

Expect Barney to show up. 

 

 

 

Eps is just insane in the mid to long range .

 

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps is just insane in the mid to long range .

 

A single control run is where a 1 off member could head.

Will stick with the ensembles this far out, but obvious there are some extremely cold members in the LR. 

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Things definitely look much more promising than a few days ago.

We're actually seeing more of a Nino atmospheric response which in typical Nino fashion results in a colder 2nd half.

Last year we saw a massive SSW event that constructively interfered with the typical modoki Nino progression, which delayed the cold till March. 

MJO Phase 7 looking likely now and it should progress into 8 eventually.

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10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Things definitely look much more promising than a few days ago.

We're actually seeing more of a Nino atmospheric response which in typical Nino fashion results in a colder 2nd half.

Last year we saw a massive SSW event that constructively interfered with the typical modoki Nino progression, which delayed the cold till March. 

MJO Phase 7 looking likely now and it should progress into 8 eventually.

With some help from the EPO and PNA, business should pick up 

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44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

turned out it was-I think we had 3-4 inches after the pattern broke down in early February....it never reloaded, just became warm and dry which was a god send with 50 inches of snow on the ground....imagine if a bunch of cutters had set up ala Jan 96?

Yeah the snow depth was insane.  It started getting dangerous as I couldn't see around street corners while driving due to the height of the snow banks, leading to a few close call traffic accidents. 

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1 minute ago, CIK62 said:

Something better happen and fast around here---or NYC will be known as Global Warming Capital.      GFSx for the next 6 days is  +17 at 49degs.  [Back to Nov. 12, in other words]    Even using day 7, which it claims will be the start of the colder period, the average T is still 47degs., or +15.

I got to 37* briefly today, at 3:30pm.     Felt like it was a 'March  style' 37 too, while strolling around.    Tomorrow at this time it will be 15degs. warmer than that.

the cool down is starting to look legit, however there will be a crazy MTD +++ departure by 1/15.   Some will obviously get erased depending on the extent of the pattern change,.

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Something better happen and fast around here---or NYC will be known as Global Warming Capital.      GFSx for the next 6 days is  +17 at 49degs.  [Back to Nov. 12, in other words]    Even using day 7, which it claims will be the start of the colder period, the average T is still 47degs., or +15.

I got to 37* briefly today, at 3:30pm.     Felt like it was a 'March  style' 37 too, while strolling around.    Tomorrow at this time it will be 15degs. warmer than that.

Getting squished.       Y or N?

814analog.off.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Use the link.    Something missing on the government website.

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14 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Something better happen and fast around here---or NYC will be known as Global Warming Capital.      GFSx for the next 6 days is  +17 at 49degs.  [Back to Nov. 12, in other words]    Even using day 7, which it claims will be the start of the colder period, the average T is still 47degs., or +15.

I got to 37* briefly today, at 3:30pm.     Felt like it was a 'March  style' 37 too, while strolling around.    Tomorrow at this time it will be 15degs. warmer than that.

Getting squished.       Y or N?

814analog.off.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Use the link.    Something missing on the government website.

We all know the next 7-10 days are going to be above normal. Whats your point? It looks to get much colder after that though. BTW today I had a low of 17 with a high of 29. Felt like January to me. 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

the cool down is starting to look legit, however there will be a crazy MTD +++ departure by 1/15.   Some will obviously get erased depending on the extent of the pattern change,.

The crazy high departures almost makes it more likely that we'll flip given the extreme climate we're in. 

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The crazy high departures almost makes it more likely that we'll flip given the extreme climate we're in. 

remember 06-07-tropical to freezer in a week and it stayed that way.

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2 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Yeah I remember in late January 2011 JB screaming "Winter in the Eastern US is over AS WE KNOW EET!" 

That AO and NAO reversal was so extreme, the models could easily see it from 11-15 days out. Newark set their record snowfall for 33 days. Winter didn’t return again until Nemo in February 2013.

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1931-02-01 to 2020-01-08
1 61.5 2011-01-27 0
2 53.6 2011-01-26 0
3 48.7 1978-02-14 0
4 45.7 1978-02-18 0
5 45.5 1961-02-16 0
6 45.2 1978-02-13 0
7 45.0 1978-02-15 0
8 44.9 1978-02-17 0
- 44.9 1978-02-16 0
10 44.8 1961-02-15 0

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3 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Yeah I remember in late January 2011 JB screaming "Winter in the Eastern US is over AS WE KNOW EET!" 

That was actually a very memorable call by JB. He was one of the lone voices saying winter was over by February at this time back in 2011. No one believed him, they kept saying the high latitude blocking was coming right back. He ended up being dead right, the Niña became very west-based, the NAM (AO, NAO) went super positive and that was all she wrote for that winter by the beginning of February, right through the end of March, goodbye snow, goodbye cold and it never came back again

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38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

remember 06-07-tropical to freezer in a week and it stayed that way.

Yes, but it was devoid of a snow storm. Couple sleet events.

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6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yes, but it was devoid of a snow storm. Couple sleet events.

We need the cold to have a chance. The air-masses we have had so far has been putrid. I’ll gladly take that cold again and roll the dice. Obviously,I would prefer snow but 2-3 inches of sleet was cool to experience 

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With low temperatures in the lower and middle 20s and highs only in the 30s, today offered a reminder that the calendar now reads "January." The reminder will be fleeting.

This afternoon, warmer air had pushed into the Chicago area. As a result, the temperature rose to 50° after a morning low temperature of 23°.

That warmer air will begin returning to the Middle Atlantic region overnight. As the warmer air comes northward, temperatures could begin to rise prior to sunrise. This weekend could be particularly warm as temperatures peak in the 60s as far north as southern New England.

This outcome is consistent with a very high amplitude MJO passage through the Maritime Continent phases. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO moved through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above accompanied by a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), as is the case this January. The mean highest temperature during the MJO's passage through the Maritime Continent for New York City for those cases was 62.5°. Three of the four cases had peak temperatures of 60° or above. 2007 was the warmest with a high temperature of 72°.

Sunday could see near record to perhaps even record warmth in parts of the region. Daily records for January 12 are:

Atlantic City: 67°, 2017
Bridgeport: 55°, 2017 and 2018
Islip: 58°, 1995 and 2017
New York City: 66°, 2017
Newark: 67°, 2017
Poughkeepsie: 62°, 2018
White Plains: 63°, 2017 

Generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through mid-month even beyond the coming weekend's exceptional warmth. However, there are growing indications of a pattern change beyond the medium-term.

Near January 20 +/- a few days, somewhat colder air could return for a period. The closing week of the month could see a sustained colder pattern develop, possibly with a shot of Arctic air.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +7.97 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.209. Through the first 40 days of meteorological winter, the AO has averaged +1.073.

The AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 17. Following some warming, the upper stratosphere will cool late in the period. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS.

On January 8, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.611 (RMM). The January 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.273.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February.

Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 82% probability of a warmer than normal January.

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Something better happen and fast around here---or NYC will be known as Global Warming Capital.      GFSx for the next 6 days is  +17 at 49degs.  [Back to Nov. 12, in other words]    Even using day 7, which it claims will be the start of the colder period, the average T is still 47degs., or +15.

I got to 37* briefly today, at 3:30pm.     Felt like it was a 'March  style' 37 too, while strolling around.    Tomorrow at this time it will be 15degs. warmer than that.

Getting squished.       Y or N?

814analog.off.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Use the link.    Something missing on the government website.

This weekend’s near record to record warmth skews the 8-day anomaly. 

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Are we really gonna trust any of these outputs?       There is a glaring 50 degree difference for Florida between the GFS/GEFS around the 24th.      GFS even has snow in Florida that day and almost nowhere else in the 48.      

Personally I want the cold and snow.     However, I may start rooting for a record warm January instead, if we start a 'dog trying to catch his own tail scenario'      Let January be Number One, it deserves it.      Then clear the slate and start off February with another all time record of -16 on the first and a 40" snowstorm that is still on the ground April 01 because it is being protected by the additional 40" that falls during the following 60 days.   lol.

SO LET IT BE WRITTEN      SO LET IT BE DONE        

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46 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Are we really gonna trust any of these outputs?       There is a glaring 50 degree difference for Florida between the GFS/GEFS around the 24th.      GFS even has snow in Florida that day and almost nowhere else in the 48.      

Personally I want the cold and snow.     However, I may start rooting for a record warm January instead, if we start a 'dog trying to catch his own tail scenario'      Let January be Number One, it deserves it.      Then clear the slate and start off February with another all time record of -16 on the first and a 40" snowstorm that is still on the ground April 01 because it is being protected by the additional 40" that falls during the following 60 days.   lol.

SO LET IT BE WRITTEN      SO LET IT BE DONE        

:facepalm:gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

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10 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

You typically don`t run " 6 straight weeks of cold " and I wouldn`t expect that either.

 

But when you total up Jan 20 - March 20 , you may likely find that was your winter. 

I can’t disagree with you here really. I think the models may be rushing it a bit and overdoing the cold and blocking at the beginning to an extent but yes, I think when we look back at this winter, the period from 2/1 - 3/20 will be a lot more memorable for winter weather than 12/1 - 1/31

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

That was actually a very memorable call by JB. He was one of the lone voices saying winter was over by February at this time back in 2011. No one believed him, they kept saying the high latitude blocking was coming right back. He ended up being dead right, the Niña became very west-based, the NAM (AO, NAO) went super positive and that was all she wrote for that winter by the beginning of February, right through the end of March, goodbye snow, goodbye cold and it never came back again

That was by far the best snow cover I saw on much of Long Island-2 feet on the ground north of Sunrise Highway with huge piles/drifts. In Long Beach we had some intrusions of maritime air that knocked our snow cover down that didn’t make it far inland. 

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16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That was by far the best snow cover I saw on much of Long Island-2 feet on the ground north of Sunrise Highway with huge piles/drifts. In Long Beach we had some intrusions of maritime air that knocked our snow cover down that didn’t make it far inland. 

Yes I do remember 

 

I have photos from December 2010

 

that must have been the winter we had snow cover for a very long time. I felt like we had snowstorm after snowstorm and there was nowhere to put the snow. 

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Back on December 26, composite date for MJO passage at high amplitude in Phase 4 and historic data associated with strong AO+ patterns in combination with a positive EPO implied that the GEFS was missing what would become a strong ridge in the East during the January 10-17 period.

GEFS1226201912z360h.jpg

Composite12262019.jpg

We now know the unfortunate ending to that chapter of Winter 2019-2020. We will feel the full consequences this weekend as the mercury approaches or sets record high temperatures in the region.

But is this the end of the story of Winter 2019-2020?

The GEFS keeps things on pause for the most part. But, just as had been the case back in December, the GEFS could be mishandling the pattern in the extended range. Certainly, if the bias-corrected GEFS forecast for the MJO is accurate, the forecast 500 mb pattern would be suspect.

GEFS0109202018z258h.jpg

The bias-corrected GEFS is suggesting that the MJO will move into Phase 7 at a super high amplitude (2.000 or above). Such an outcome typically produces a trough in the East and often a ridge in the EPO-PNA domains. Historic experience with the MJO following its reaching Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period (as occurred recently) sees the MJO progress into Phases 7 and 8 (88% cases). Both the GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS have recently adjusted to show the MJO moving into Phase 7 at high amplitude. The EPS has made some movement in that direction, as well.

Additonal evidence also suggests that something closer to the more typical 500 mb pattern for the MJO in Phase 7 at a super high amplitude than the GEFS idea is the more likely scenario:

1. The 12z EPS moved toward such a pattern following hour 270.

2. The 12z CFSv2's Week 3 forecast had a similar 500 mb pattern to that shown on the EPS, except that the ridge-trough axes were displaced somewhat to the west.

3. Historic outcomes 3-4 weeks following the MJO's reaching Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during January 5-20 were generally 10°-12° colder than the Week 1-2 anomaly. Based on the latest guidance (estimated 40.0° mean temperature for the January 8-21 period in New York City), that would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature around 28.0°-30.0° at Central Park. That would be several degrees below normal. The recent weekly CFSv2 data was even colder than that.

Key Points:

1. A preponderance of data is pointing to the return of winter in the East.

2. January could close with a sustained cold pattern that could continue into at least part of February.

3. Historic data from the past cases where the MJO entered Phase 7 at super high amplitude referenced above often saw above to much above normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions during February.

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Thank you @donsutherland1 let's see what Feb has in store.

I for one, looking SO forward to the 60s Sat/Sun

Beers and steaks for the boys before we enter the plunger again. Forget about our snow drought this weekend and enjoy the warmth.

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22 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Thank you @donsutherland1 let's see what Feb has in store.

I for one, looking SO forward to the 60s Sat/Sun

Beers and steaks for the boys before we enter the plunger again. Forget about our snow drought this weekend and enjoy the warmth.

gfs_asnow_neus_55.png

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The next 8 days are averaging 47degs., or 15degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.2[39.1].        Should be about  +10.3[42.8] by the 18th.

37* here at 6am.       55^ by 4pm.

EURO is slower with the BN air, no 'BN Days' or Snow for at least 10 days.     CMC goes BN late 10-Day and snow is possible.     GFS goes BN with the 17th and has snow on the 19th and 22nd.     It is -6 for the 9 days (17th---25th).     This would make the MTD +4.3 by the 26th.     We will see.

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