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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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27 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Shouldn’t be. For the Triad, our average lowest temperature in September is 46° for our area. Some areas sometimes touch the 30s in September. 

What Triad would that be? Certainly not the one I live in. 

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1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point. Dude, where do you live? That’s basic climatology.

No ill will my friend, but basic statistics say otherwise.

The first month of the autumn, September, is still a warm month in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, with average temperature varying between 59.5°F (15.3°C) and 81.3°F (27.4°C).

Temperature

In Winston-Salem, the average high-temperature is practically the same as in August - a warm 81.3°F (27.4°C). The average low-temperature, in Winston-Salem, is 59.5°F (15.3°C).

Or to be clear, are you saying the average historical monthly low temp is 46°?  

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4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Let Meteorologist Tim Buckley explain:

 

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Ok, that makes sense.  I would also wager that average monthly low temp is captured predominantly from the last 5 days of Sept.  But even that 46° is a bit surprising to me for the Triad.

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15 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point. Dude, where do you live? That’s basic climatology.

It’s 70 miles from Sandy Ridge to Seagrove.  We’ve seen significant temperature differences in the same day between northern Stokes and southern Randolph.

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18 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Shouldn’t be. For the Triad, our average lowest temperature in September is 46° for our area. Some areas sometimes touch the 30s in September. 

 

16 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point. Dude, where do you live? That’s basic climatology.

I misread your post.  I missed the “est” on low.  Our average low for September is 61which is what I was referring to. I’m not sure how an extreme is necessarily basic climatology but if you think so more power to you. I tend to base my climate expectations on averages and then enjoy or hate when an extreme comes my way.

 

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17 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Allan Huffman: 12z ECMWF shows lows in the 40s for many in NC, next Sunday/Monday.

I was just looking at our extended forecast and it shows low 70's for highs and around 60 for lows from next Saturday till Tuesday. That would be awesome for us if it verifies.

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17 hours ago, The Alchemist said:


Looks like more than a week of drying out... I think we are all looking forward to both


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Yep, looks dry for the next 10 days at least unless a surprised tropical system comes along.

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The pundits tell us that this La Niña doesn’t bode well for a good winter in the southeast, but don’t forget 2017-18 while we were smack in the middle of the last one.  We managed several good storms then.  February was pretty quite, but January and February gave us some nice snows.  So bring on the La Niña.  We’ll manage.

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OK- I need y’alls help today! My wedding is OUTSIDE this Saturday in Louisburg NC. Moisture from Beta will be a factor, but models seem to have trended to a faster passage before a front comes through Sunday. In fact, everything I see seems dry for Saturday afternoon (weddings at 5). My dilemma is I have to let the tenting company know by today if we need a tent for the ceremony. It would be a major eyesore in the front yard of the house and is costly (about 5k). I only want the tent if we need it. What do you all think about the forecast for Saturday afternoon for Louisburg? Currently, I’m leaning towards not having it. Thoughts?

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4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

OK- I need y’alls help today! My wedding is OUTSIDE this Saturday in Louisburg NC. Moisture from Beta will be a factor, but models seem to have trended to a faster passage before a front comes through Sunday. In fact, everything I see seems dry for Saturday afternoon (weddings at 5). My dilemma is I have to let the tenting company know by today if we need a tent for the ceremony. It would be a major eyesore in the front yard of the house and is costly (about 5k). I only want the tent if we need it. What do you all think about the forecast for Saturday afternoon for Louisburg? Currently, I’m leaning towards not having it. Thoughts?

Get the tent. You don’t want to stress about little things the day before/day of. And congratulations! 

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I agree with BooneWX.  You will appreciate not stressing and enjoying your day.  View it as insurance.

 

And Congratulations!

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