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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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Looking at the WRF.

Virginia Beach south to extreme northern Outer Banks may see some Ocean Effect  snow showers/flurries tomorrow.

The column is below freezing.  Moisture is limited.  But very possible for some low top streamers coming off the Atlantic.  Winds in the lowest 6k feet coming in out the NE.

Doesn't happen much. So it would be a rarity for them. 

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I’m asking one more time for everyone to keep the one liners and whining in the banter thread. Also, as asked repeatedly, do not mention any other board or you will also find yourself on the outside looking in. I’ve honestly had it with the trolling of the NWS, Mets and others that know more than most people here. I don’t care if you’ve been here 20 years like I have or a newbie of 20 minutes. You will find yourself gone. This place has standards and it’s time you all up your game. If anyone has any issues, message me. Otherwise step it up. 
That is all....now back to actual weather discussions. 

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

N shift, temps an issue now! 12z, so many ways to lose.

:rolleyes: bl temps 2 days ago showed too warm. You don’t have any thermal profiles to show why you’re saying this. I’m not playing with you. Up your game or go sit in the banter thread 

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4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

:rolleyes: bl temps 2 days ago showed too warm. You don’t have any thermal profiles to show why you’re saying this. I’m not playing with you. Up your game or go sit in the banter thread 

I was just looking at the model run, verbatim. Can’t get pics to post. It’s all rain, and 540 line is N of any precip 

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

I was just looking at the model run, verbatim. Can’t get pics to post. It’s all rain, and 540 line is N of any precip 

You know exactly how you’re posting and it isn’t to explain what you are looking at. I’m not replying any further, nor am I going to warn you verbally any longer. 

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Temps are not an issue, there just isn't any precip falling through the cold upper level air to help drive the boundary temps down. Suppression is still the issue, with the NS moving through too fast. Mid level winds turn WNW by 7 AM Thursday and shutoff moisture transport. 

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3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Well it was fun while it lasted.

Why?  Another one liner without any reasoning. Come on. You absolutely know better. The GFS actually took a small step towards what it once had and yet you still post this.....sigh. Belongs in banter. Step up your game too. 

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5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Why?  Another one liner without any reasoning. Come on. You absolutely know better. The GFS actually took a small step towards what it once had and yet you still post this.....sigh. Belongs in banter. Step up your game too. 

To be fair to eyewall, the CMC took a step toward even more suppression. The CMC has been more accurate than the GFS lately. Could things change? Sure, but right now, it is like being down 30 points at half time in a college basketball game. This winter has not shown the ability to make a comeback in a game like that. All the models are suppressed and seem to be fixating on that rather than bouncing back and forth. They are locked in.

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Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

To be fair to eyewall, the CMC took a step toward even more suppression. The CMC has been more accurate than the GFS lately. Could things change? Sure, but right now, it is like being down 30 points at half time in a college basketball game. This winter has not shown a chance to make a comeback in a game like that. All the models are suppressed and seem to be fixating on that rather than bouncing back and forth. They are locked in.

He knows how to word throwing in the towel for himself much better than a one line whining post. You didn’t have any issues wording your explanation. Nobody else should either. I’m not asking for much. 

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10 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Why?  Another one liner without any reasoning. Come on. You absolutely know better. The GFS actually took a small step towards what it once had and yet you still post this.....sigh. Belongs in banter. Step up your game too. 

I know I am just expressing frustration. Anyway if you want a little more it is obviously a very suppressed run with the strong high nosing south and confluence in the upper levels. There just isn't the amplification to unleash a power house low nor the strong shortwave energy. Your looking at some weak disturbances feeding off strong out vorticity to the south of the confluence that would result in a weak "southern slider". That is what this run shows. Is it a hair better, I suppose, but nowhere close to anything substantial on 12z op run.

Additional note: There is a better looking vort max that tries to makes it way into the picture on Fri but it would spawn a low too far off to the east well off shore.

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Just now, eyewall said:

I know I am just expressing frustration. Anyway if you want a little more it is obviously a very suppressed run with the strong high nosing south and confluence in the upper levels. There just isn't the amplification to unleash a power house low nor the strong shortwave energy. Your looking at some weak disturbances feeding off strong out vorticity to the south of the confluence that would result in a weak "southern slider". That is what this run shows. Is it a hair better, I suppose, but nowhere close to anything substantial on 12z op run.

Agreed and thank you. Explanations help those that are here to learn. That’s why this board was formed. 

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Unfortunately with the energy that is being held back in the southwest- It will likely eject after it warms up and be a big rain maker. Last night's OP euro showed it. 

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4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

To be fair to eyewall, the CMC took a step toward even more suppression. The CMC has been more accurate than the GFS lately. Could things change? Sure, but right now, it is like being down 30 points at half time in a college basketball game. This winter has not shown the ability to make a comeback in a game like that. All the models are suppressed and seem to be fixating on that rather than bouncing back and forth. They are locked in.

This is all a huge stretch. We're 120hrs out from the event starting. A small adjustment in modeling would lead to a widespread snow for lots of people on this board.  Take a look at the snow from last week, when no global models were showing any snowfall just 72hrs out.  I think that qualifies as a "comeback in the game" if you will.  This storm has much better odds of turning out in our favor than that one did, 120 hrs out.

It may not work out, but it's far from a "down 30 points at halftime" game.  

 

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Unfortunately with the energy that is being held back in the southwest- It will likely eject after it warms up and be a big rain maker. Last night's OP euro showed it. 

Yep basically back to square one at that point.

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7 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

This is all a huge stretch. We're 120hrs out from the event starting. A small adjustment in modeling would lead to a widespread snow for lots of people on this board.  Take a look at the snow from last week, when no global models were showing any snowfall just 72hrs out.  I think that qualifies as a "comeback in the game" if you will.  This storm has much better odds of turning out in our favor than that one did, 120 hrs out.

It may not work out, but it's far from a "down 30 points at halftime" game.  

 

Yea... I don’t get it. Thermal profiles still look okay (enough to continue watching) for sc and ga at this range. I mean it’s 120 hours away. The pattern is super progressive and the pig ridge never really goes away, no matter how many times it disappears on the models, so it leaves the possibility of moisture further north than what it shows currently. It will continue to change each run. It’s a progressive pattern, so many flying pieces to grasp. Will it be snow or rain? At this point there’s still enough uncertainty to keep watching. After all....that’s why we’re here isn’t it? 

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