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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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Holy schmoley that GEFS- 3.7" here? I doubt it but that increases the odds of at least a bit of accumulation in the ATL area. In any even I plan to drive to the NW somewhere even if we get not that much in my backyard.

EDIT:SREF is also on the at least some accumulation bandwagon. This is for the airport.

Screen Shot 2020-12-22 at 3.39.47 PM.png

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If things truly play out the way the models insist on right now, I have to question how much the  NAO even means to us. EPO feels far more important at the moment. Maybe the MJO can force it to flip by early/mid January.

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We can see snow and snowy patterns when the indices are bad so I imagine we can definitely see bad patterns when the indices are good. 

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3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

The Pacific is screwing everything up 

Not a fan of it either...think we can still see something with a bit of luck though.  Hopefully the -AO/-NAO hang on in Jan (along with a boost from a legit SSW), and the Pac improves in due time

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Not a fan of it either...think we can still see something with a bit of luck though.  Hopefully the -AO/-NAO hang on in Jan (along with a boost from a legit SSW), and the Pac improves in due time

Well we knew that we were likely to have Pacific problems going in to this year.  Without the Atlantic/HL help we would probably be looking at at another tropical Christmas, so I look on the bright side of that.

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5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Well we knew that we were likely to have Pacific problems going in to this year.  Without the Atlantic/HL help we would probably be looking at at another tropical Christmas, so I look on the bright side of that.

I'm in the prefer warm and dry camp if we don't get snow. 60s and winter fishing sounds much better than 40s and rain or 20s and wind. 

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1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

If things truly play out the way the models insist on right now, I have to question how much the  NAO even means to us. EPO feels far more important at the moment. Maybe the MJO can force it to flip by early/mid January.

The big -AO/-NAO winters/periods are kind of legendary, so that's what elevates interest I'd say.  Dec-Jan 2010-2011, Winter 2009-2010, Dec-Jan 1995-1996, Jan-Feb 1987, Dec-Jan 1981-1982, Winter 1978-1979, Winter 1976-1977, Winter 1969-1970, Winter 1968-1969, Jan 1966, Jan-Mar 1960, Winter 1939-1940, Winter 1935-1936

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12 minutes ago, griteater said:

Not a fan of it either...think we can still see something with a bit of luck though.  Hopefully the -AO/-NAO hang on in Jan (along with a boost from a legit SSW), and the Pac improves in due time

Thirded. 

Thankfully with the strat taking a beating it "seems" like the blocking regime will hang around. I read too that a December -AO regime usually lasts deep into winter. With everyone expecting +PNA first of January timeframe we could be right on the edge of a really great pattern first week of the year. Without it though anything we see until then will likely not be cold enough IMO. All eyes on January. 

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6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm in the prefer warm and dry camp if we don't get snow. 60s and winter fishing sounds much better than 40s and rain or 20s and wind. 

To each their own.  I despise warm weather in the winter.

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26 minutes ago, griteater said:

The big -AO/-NAO winters/periods are kind of legendary, so that's what elevates interest I'd say.  Dec-Jan 2010-2011, Winter 2009-2010, Dec-Jan 1995-1996, Jan-Feb 1987, Dec-Jan 1981-1982, Winter 1978-1979, Winter 1976-1977, Winter 1969-1970, Winter 1968-1969, Jan 1966, Jan-Mar 1960, Winter 1939-1940, Winter 1935-1936

Winter 1976-1977 was the best of my life. I was teaching in Floyd County, VA.  We went to school 1 day in January. 

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4 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Ugh, accidentally sent the mean twice, here are the individual ensembles4ebb9c5e435efe85e9b6e0be1b37c0be.jpg

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

So what's with the "banding" look to all of these members?  3-4 distinct ares of enhancement of anafrontal snowfall.  Is it weak distinct disturbances riding up the front, or temp driven with time of day?  Weird look. 

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19 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

So what's with the "banding" look to all of these members?  3-4 distinct ares of enhancement of anafrontal snowfall.  Is it weak distinct disturbances riding up the front, or temp driven with time of day?  Weird look. 

Pretty much.  Or the lack of consolidation of the main trough 

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In 2010/2011 the big events happened just before each spell of blocking temporarily broke down. If that holds true this year I’d look for a storm 10-15 days from now. 

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So what's with the "banding" look to all of these members?  3-4 distinct ares of enhancement of anafrontal snowfall.  Is it weak distinct disturbances riding up the front, or temp driven with time of day?  Weird look. 
Here is 18z924d018fc69984c61ba2649f9b081191.jpg

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

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To me the absolutely insane thing is how 72 hours out the Euro is alone by itself, most of the other models ensembles show flakes but King Euro doesn't. Do we bet against it?

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

To me the absolutely insane thing is how 72 hours out the Euro is alone by itself, most of the other models ensembles show flakes but King Euro doesn't. Do we bet against it?

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

The Euro hasn't been king for quite a while. 

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6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

To me the absolutely insane thing is how 72 hours out the Euro is alone by itself, most of the other models ensembles show flakes but King Euro doesn't. Do we bet against it?

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

I think they call it Dr no in the mid Atlantic forum for a reason..??

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I’m trying to understand what you guys are getting excited about? There may be some snow flurries/showers in nw ga. Outside of that I don’t see anything other than mountain upslope snow. I’ll go on record saying no snow will fall for anyone outside of the mountains from the frontal band before the dry slot hits. Anything else is relying on upper level evergy and wnw surface flow...aka... flurries for nw ga and some snow for the mountains and that’s it. 

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Quite frankly I think the Nam has it pretty much figured out.

If that's the case.. we go from 80 Thursday to not out of the 40s Friday. 

Edit. 

Nam shows no possibility of flakes outside the mountains.  But a long squall line instead. 

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