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Dr. Dews

January 2020 Discussion

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Just now, dryslot said:

2?

Pete is alive and pretty well, Coming off torn bicep surgery.

Is that SkiMRG? Last post of his I remember was him sledding in two feet of fresh pow after October '11.

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Just now, Hoth said:

Is that SkiMRG? Last post of his I remember was him sledding in two feet of fresh pow after October '11.

Yes

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1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Talk of 92 has me treading carefully here. Trying not to revive the painful memories.   

Ok,  so my not being impressed in Amherst means it must’ve been a valley fail. 

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Just now, CTValleySnowMan said:

Talk of 92 has me treading carefully here. Trying not to revive the painful memories.   

This is a classic downslope look for the valley so I'd keep the skeptical glasses on for now...but things can change. Even a little bit of a difference in the flow or some PVA can spark midlevel stuff that could produce....but for now, I'd stay skeptical. I'm even staying skeptical in interior MA on east side of hills....I think I'd feel pretty good right now if I was in New Ipswich NH or something. 

But there's still quite a long ways to go that even they could get skunked. This thing could morph into some grotesque piece of garbage that tries to track into Poughkeepsie or something. 

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5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Your posts give me second thoughts.     Even inland?

I would feel better where you are, Inland areas well away from the coast would be ok, I just don't like the lat where H5 wants to track, Then the slide ENE at the surface, I've seen this movie before.

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16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Ok,  so my not being impressed in Amherst means it must’ve been a valley fail. 

I got 6 inches of mashed potatoes and slush in the Sixteen Acres section of Springfield at that time living at about 220 feet elevation.   Looking up in the sky I could see it dumping 500 feet higher and on the horizon on hilltops just east and west of the valley the whole storm where it was 2-4 feet.  

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is a classic downslope look for the valley so I'd keep the skeptical glasses on for now...but things can change. Even a little bit of a difference in the flow or some PVA can spark midlevel stuff that could produce....but for now, I'd stay skeptical. I'm even staying skeptical in interior MA on east side of hills....I think I'd feel pretty good right now if I was in New Ipswich NH or something. 

But there's still quite a long ways to go that even they could get skunked. This thing could morph into some grotesque piece of garbage that tries to track into Poughkeepsie or something. 

Not with that block. No chance of a cut 

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14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would feel better where you are, Inland areas well away from the coast would be ok, I just don't like the lat where H5 wants to track, Then the slide ENE at the surface, I've seen this movie before.

Dec 92 it was over DC.

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9 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I got 6 inches of mashed potatoes and slush in the Sixteen Acres section of Springfield at that time living at about 220 feet elevation.   Looking up in the sky I could see it dumping 500 feet higher and on the horizon on hilltops just east and west of the valley the whole storm where it was 2-4 feet.  

I don't think anyone had it worse than I did.  I was living in Somers at the time and where I was I had about 3" of snow but within a mile or two from my house there (by JMH) there was well over a foot.

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8 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I don't think anyone had it worse than I did.  I was living in Somers at the time and where I was I had about 3" of snow but within a mile or two from my house there (by JMH) there was well over a foot.

6 may be generous but more than 3" I believe.  I was younger and not perfectly detailed with the measurements.  Regardless, it was tough to watch.  Especially looking straight up and watching it pounding above you for hours.  

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27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't like this one at all.

I do.  Despite what the models are showing right now, I'm feeling this one.  I think in a day or so we will see positions reversed on some of those high fiving tonight and some of those singing the blues.  I don't envision a tuck on this.  The 18z EPS may be giving the first hints of the block to the north hanging tough and forcing this further east.  We need to see a few more runs though to confirm.

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13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I do.  Despite what the models are showing right now, I'm feeling this one.  I think in a day or so we will see positions reversed on some of those high fiving tonight and some of those singing the blues.  I don't envision a tuck on this.  The 18z EPS may be giving the first hints of the block to the north hanging tough and forcing this further east.  We need to see a few more runs though to confirm.

I should have been more clear, I'm talking about this area up here.

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I’d like to see the high keep trending in a more westward/favorable position. Need all the cold air available even if the h5 tracks S of LI. We have a shot though, and that’s good enough.

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56 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would feel better where you are, Inland areas well away from the coast would be ok, I just don't like the lat where H5 wants to track, Then the slide ENE at the surface, I've seen this movie before.

I had to re-read your post a couple times as I’m catching up

bc I respect your opinion and knowledge

I see you think areas in SVT SNH and Rte 2  mass elevated and inland look good?

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I had to re-read your post a couple times as I’m catching up

bc I respect your opinion and knowledge

I see you think areas in SVT SNH and Rte 2  mass elevated and inland look good?

Thanks, Right now, Yes, That would be my pick of an area i would favor, The biggest issue is the air mass for coastal areas, Maybe with a better HP position some of that can be overcome.

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I'm liking the 1992 analog more and more actually ...

From my spacial relationship observations the 500 mb wobbling around down to 528 dm looks a tad deeper as a mid-lvl system, then '92, but taking into account climo that's probably proportional.   They also both taking tracks not demonstratively different to be all that distracting, while being quasi cut-off.   There is also some simlarities in the mass of the +PP/orientation over eastern Ontario - at least > 50% likeness.  

This is in totality enough similar in my mind not to toss the notion - I mean ...not that anyone is, just sayn'

But jesus christ what a run of that model...  That sucker had three blockbusters... talking a lot of people going quite far toward ...shall we say, adjusting their seasonal snow fall deficits.  Heh.

Re the first this weekend...I'm more comfortable giving NW RI to the western subburbs of Boston as the real rain cat-paw -vs- snow transition axis when factoring for GFS bl thermal handling, and perhaps the last 6 hours then collapses SE to clock interior SE zones with CCB as it pivots out.  Probably too detailed? But, I'm using basing that on this one run. I'm sure correction needs vary depending on which cycle we see.

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13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’d like to see the high keep trending in a more westward/favorable position. Need all the cold air available even if the h5 tracks S of LI. We have a shot though, and that’s good enough.

 Yeah, you do not want to rely on needing a wound up bomb dynamically cooling you.   If it’s going to be a more robust high you will have a better idea by 12z Wednesday runs. 

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