Ji Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Cmc with 2 to 4" for North and West. To bad the CMC is a shiit model.All the Models since 6z have trended towards colder and wintrier solutions. This was a snowstorm on the models 10 days ago lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Seems like models are beginning to converge on the northern and western parts of the sub. Seeing flakes. With as warm as its been and the system being weak and moisture starved its hard to imagine this being anymore than a coating to maybe an inch. But any snow is good snow and begggers cant be choosers lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It snowed last January...lol But prime climo is pushed to mid/late January, though--I never expect anything before then. (This year it's shaping up to be February at the rate we're going) Prime window runs from mid Jan to mid Feb historically. Some of our bigger snows have occurred mid to late Feb, and once in a while early March. Lately March has become more of a winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I guess it's no missing that rainstorm next weekend, huh? Smh Bad timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I guess it's no missing that rainstorm next weekend, huh? Smh Bad timing Hopefully it speeds up a little and rain tapers towards gametime Saturday night but in my experience cutters typically are slower than advertised if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Hopefully it speeds up a little and rain tapers towards gametime Saturday night but in my experience cutters typically are slower than advertised if anything Oh yeah? Shoot...(and the 12z GFS does have the yellow right over us near gametime, too, smh Home field advantage...go figure) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh yeah? Shoot...(and the 12z GFS does have the yellow right over us near gametime, too, smh Home field advantage...go figure) Yeah, I would certainly rather it be dry, since the only way I think we lose is if we turn the ball over and turnovers are more likely in bad weather but we just need to run the ball and play our game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Ens have been moving the wrong direction down the line. Seeing consensus on a continuation of a nasty -pna without enough from the Atl side to offset anymore. Is what it is but my confidence of getting out of this mess in Jan is declining. Pac NW weenies will be running naked through the streets for at least a couple weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Yeah, I would certainly rather it be dry, since the only way I think we lose is if we turn the ball over and turnovers are more likely in bad weather but we just need to run the ball and play our game Good news is we've had plenty of wet football practice this year...so there is that, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: Ens have been moving the wrong direction down the line. Seeing consensus on a continuation of a nasty -pna without enough from the Atl side to offset anymore. Is what it is but my confidence of getting out of this mess in Jan is declining. Pac NW weenies will be running naked through the streets for at least a couple weeks They've been making out like fat rats since last winter, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ens have been moving the wrong direction down the line. Seeing consensus on a continuation of a nasty -pna without enough from the Atl side to offset anymore. Is what it is but my confidence of getting out of this mess in Jan is declining. Pac NW weenies will be running naked through the streets for at least a couple weeks I'm not giving up until PSU tells me 47 times 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 12z GEFS continues to have a modest signal for something frozen between the 16th and 18th with a cold front that temporarily knocks down the SE ridge. We can track this until it disappears lol. Otherwise it's wall to wall SE ridge and mild, and still hints of higher h5 heights building towards GL from Scand at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Ens have been moving the wrong direction down the line. Seeing consensus on a continuation of a nasty -pna without enough from the Atl side to offset anymore. Is what it is but my confidence of getting out of this mess in Jan is declining. Pac NW weenies will be running naked through the streets for at least a couple weeksThis is workable lol..at least se ridge is flatter ...workable for maybe what it could turn into in feb lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Seems like we are only a few days away from probably cancelling almost all of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Latest EURO WB 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: Latest EURO WB I know where I live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 WB Snow totals.....I know. Ground too warm to stick, blah, blah, blah....But it is better than trying to figure out when the PNA is going to flip in our favor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Seeing strong consensus for the first time next week. Soundings along and west of 95 (close burbs) look good in the mids but the surface to 925mb temps are sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I know where I live One of you NW of the fall line people should start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Shave a few degrees off low levels and add a tenth or 2 of qpf and a widespread 1-4" would happen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Somebody start a thread. Title it “Worse pattern since 1990 snow event” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Somebody start a thread. Title it “Worse pattern since 1990 snow event” Done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Savor this next threat window. Ens keep kicking any Atl help or Pac ridge breakdown farther and farther down the line. I guess this is the type of season we look for a window here or there to maybe drop a couple inches of slush. But we all know 2nd half Feb and March are the new Jan and early Feb of old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 58 minutes ago, Ji said: This is workable lol..at least se ridge is flatter ...workable for maybe what it could turn into in feb lol Hard to see no progress over 2 full weeks... I'd have to look at some composites but this Jan seems awfully similar Jan 2002 going off memory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 The setup for Tues actually isn't far from being a stronger storm then currently depicted. Right now the shortwave in the NS is lagging behind the southern SW. But a quicker, deeper drop with this NS shortwave puts it in a prime position for dropping down the back side of the southern for a phase. Only problem with seeing that occur though is that the low is struggling to stay south of us as it is. Stronger system and we are tempting fate on seeing the system run to our west. So the question is, do we fell lucky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 From Isotherm over in the NYC forum.... find his point about MJO phase 8 = pattern change very interesting, while he replied to this comment from a member that stated the MJO is looking better at the end of the month. I certainly agree with Tom, many things are at play and a pattern change will need enough overall push/amplitude ,etc., to counter the well established issues so far this month and looking down the road as well. 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: What's with all the doom? Mjo looks pretty good at the end of this month from Isotherm : Keep in mind, the phase 7-MJO response is still a warm one for the E US, although cold-air transport into the Plains increases. One would need continued propagation into phase 8 at amplitude for potential/putative pattern amelioration [and as discussed yesterday by Bluewave and I, propagation into 8 is not necessarily a guarantee of a significant pattern change, either -- many factors involved]. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The setup for Tues actually isn't far from being a stronger storm then currently depicted. Right now the shortwave in the NS is lagging behind the southern SW. But a quicker, deeper drop with this NS shortwave puts it in a prime position for dropping down the back side of the southern for a phase. Only problem with seeing that occur though is that the low is struggling to stay south of us as it is. Stronger system and we are tempting fate on seeing the system run to our west. So the question is, do we fell lucky? If we're extremely lucky? The Farmer's Almanac will be correct, lol (they said 4"-8" inches in the "Northeast" for this date range. Of course, the 4" may be closer to our max...but who knows? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I know this is beating a dead horse but wow. Looping the GEFS thru the entirety there is absolutely nothing helping to breakdown any of the key puke features. The PAC ridge just continues to grow as it gets reenergized over and over, the PV is like a top just spinning away but not wobbling very much, the W Coast trof is about as stationary a continental US trof as I have ever seen. There is no sugarcoating things as this takes us thru MLK Day. Then, even if things start to shift around favorably we are what another 10 days to 2 weeks out from seeing any effect? I, like many here, am trying to hold out hope but it is getting closer and closer to tossing Jan time. Like PSU said, give it till the 15th. If we dont see any favorable changes showing on the ens at that time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hard to see no progress over 2 full weeks... I'd have to look at some composites but this Jan seems awfully similar Jan 2002 going off memory i thought the 10 day euro looked more encouraging with some push into the NAO domain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: i thought the 10 day euro looked more encouraging with some push into the NAO domain Agree, and 12z eps is actually a sig improvement d10+ in the Atl. Better than the gefs now... Overall the Pac is stable and overwhelming through d15. We need that ridge/trough alignment to change here at some point. Any meaningful change there is getting pushed out in time every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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