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12/17 Messy Mix

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I meant I think the qpf also trends south . Meaning less up north 

Whatever it takes to get snow  in your backyard, that’s what you go with.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Are the models starting to feel the effects of the NAO dipping ? This can be the reason why the models are trending colder.

Indices don't cause weather or modeling changes.  Forecasted indices themselves are models.  We might be seeing a trend.  But then synoptic guidance will shift in tandem with climate indices.

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2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Indices don't cause weather or modeling changes.  Forecasted indices themselves are models.  We might be seeing a trend.  But then synoptic guidance will shift in tandem with climate indices.

Indicies are a means of measuring hemispheric height and pressure patterns, which modulate our sensible weather. Any decent guidance will reflect this.

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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I like the look up here. Some mid level fingers of fronto possible with higher ratios.  

Great mid level magic on that Euro run at 12z...

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If we had a better front end, would be warning. It’s been slowly getting better, but the dynamics aren’t there. Best bet is to root for south ticks.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

If we had a better front end, would be warning. It’s been slowly getting better, but the dynamics aren’t there. Best bet is to root for south ticks.

The front end thump on this thing is pretty weak sauce. That's what you get with a sheared shortwave out in Detroit-STL corridor when the best WAA precip hits. 

I agree the best thing to root for at this point is just another tick or two colder so we stay mostly snow in the weak commahead this thing has. The overall orientation of the vortmax doesn't seem to be changing that much so I think we're probably gonna keep the really sheared look. 

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The front end thump on this thing is pretty weak sauce. That's what you get with a sheared shortwave out in Detroit-STL corridor when the best WAA precip hits. 

I agree the best thing to root for at this point is just another tick or two colder so we stay mostly snow in the weak commahead this thing has. The overall orientation of the vortmax doesn't seem to be changing that much so I think we're probably gonna keep the really sheared look. 

Yea...this is what I was getting at speaking with Kev. Surface can trend as cold as it wants, but that won't compensate for the sheared dynamics.

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For mon night into tue snow 4- 8 inches for inland ct and sne then ice storm for inland sne area. some other weather people agree with me on the amount .

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2 minutes ago, blizzard24 said:

For mon night into tue snow 4- 8 inches for inland ct and sne then ice storm for inland sne area.

Where are you getting all of the QPF? :weenie:

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2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:
7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:
from pwm?  I would think so.....the inbound is in mon.

Yes from pwm. I thought sn starts just after midnight Mon night

PWM is the worst for that early morning departure  (or at least it was when I lived up there 2005-2008).  The line tor security would loop around the entire terminal--lots of folks missing their flights.

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6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:
11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:
from pwm?  I would think so.....the inbound is in mon.

Yes from pwm. I thought sn starts just after midnight Mon night

Not even snowing here at 12z Tuesday

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