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Hoosier

December 2019 Discussion

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59 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Looking like there may be an inch or two of snow on Tuesday.

 

Hoping it does cool down the week of the 6th. The Weather Network's winter forecast looks to be in trouble - they've been calling for an exceptionally cold winter for Ontario, Quebec and the eastern Prairies.

These wraparound snows don't always workout, so it'll probably be an inch with heavy flurries most likely. 

Interestingly enough, depending how much snow and sleet Ottawa receives over the next few days, we could either surpass them or be closely tied with them for December. Don't think thats ever happened before. 

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ORD is now officially in the hole for snow to date for the first time this fall/winter... 8.8" with 9.0" being average.  The minor snow tomorrow into Tuesday could perhaps get it back to average or some tenths above but pretty much inevitable that the deficit will build again after that.
Looks decent for 1-2" north of I-80 tomorrow night. Winds may be up near advisory criteria too.

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This is a shame.  If you told me there'd be a bombing low on this track in December, I'd take it every day of the week.  Unfortunately it's just not going to work out as a significant snow maker this far south.  I think the initial low farther west is the problem in this case.  If that didn't exist and were replaced by a high, would likely get a much quicker change to snow.
18Z-20191229_HRRRMW_prec_ptype-1-24-100-100.gif.6bd5dc238d6d130112d1f9095acd8a87.gif
On the other hand, would've been tough to get a sling shot north track of the secondary surface low without the presence of the parent ULL causing strongly meridional steering flow. Interesting/complex setup. Can't say I recall an evolution like this since I've been out here. Sure would've been nice to have a more winter-like air mass in place, that would've done wonders.

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3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

On the other hand, would've been tough to get a sling shot north track of the secondary surface low without the presence of the parent ULL causing strongly meridional steering flow. Interesting/complex setup. Can't say I recall an evolution like this since I've been out here. Sure would've been nice to have a more winter-like air mass in place, that would've done wonders.

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Trust me, I've been playing the "what if" scenarios in my head, lol. Even if this was coming into a more typical late December air mass but this is more like early November. Still, if it delivers measurable snow from Monroe in the far SE corner of the Mitt to Copper Harbor and Ironwood, it will be unique for that fact alone. I cannot recall a storm doing that at any time of year. Covering the entire state like this has a shot at doing. Jan '78 is only possible candidate that comes to mind. 

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13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Most of the global/non NAM and HRRR guidance had less than 0.75" at ORD with round one, so higher models definitely were better.  Round 2 would really have to underperform to prevent 2nd place.

Underperform incoming.  Not sure it will even be close enough to 2nd place for wraparound precip to save it.

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18 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like a period of strong winds in parts of IN/OH/MI overnight/Monday as the surface low rapidly deepens.  Could even have a brief period of high wind warning criteria gusts imo.  Will be curious to see if the NWS offices start to hit this harder.

Great call Hoosier. Lots of 60+ MPH gusts reported overnight with some 70+ sprinkled in too. It was so loud, the house was rattling and woke me up. ILN reacted late with an Advisory and then a Warning a few hours ago. ~100K without power across Ohio. Mine went out 1x overnight but was back on within no time. 

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Underperform incoming.  Not sure it will even be close enough to 2nd place for wraparound precip to save it.

Sad

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9 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Trust me, I've been playing the "what if" scenarios in my head, lol. Even if this was coming into a more typical late December air mass but this is more like early November. Still, if it delivers measurable snow from Monroe in the far SE corner of the Mitt to Copper Harbor and Ironwood, it will be unique for that fact alone. I cannot recall a storm doing that at any time of year. Covering the entire state like this has a shot at doing. Jan '78 is only possible candidate that comes to mind. 

It's happened plenty of times, although I can't name the storms off the top of my head.

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A couple of times today have had that strange mixture of snow, drizzle and sleet/graupel all happening at the same time. So strange when the phase transition happens to be close to the surface.

 

I vote to bring back the 60's of yesterday.

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7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Sad

November and December really screwed it up.  Average precip in those 2 months would've put ORD at 51.52", which would've broken the record.  Instead, won't even get to 50" and will finish 3rd.

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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

November and December really screwed it up.  Average precip in those 2 months would've put ORD at 51.52", which would've broken the record.  Instead, won't even get to 50" and will finish 3rd.

Hopefully, we've saved the precip for when it actually has a chance to be other than rain. At least that'd be nice payback for missing your wettest year goal. 

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50 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Even a DAB gonna be a tall order with this wrap around 

 

23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

All I wanna know is if Joe is on board with a DAB.

Already had 0.1" here from the morning activity. But yea...A DAB will likely be it for tonight for most areas.

Most recent guidance has been backing off from the earlier overdone 2-4" projections. DAB-1.5" looks good, with highest obviously near the IL/WI border.

Should point out that the GFS is going to end up handling this better than any other guidance. All but two runs had a DAB to ~1.5" across N. Illinois.

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Snowing heavy here in Hancock,mi. I can't even see Houghton or even the houses down the the street from me. Glad I get the next two days off for News Years. The city hasn't plowed the street around my house all day. They usually will plow a path in the street but they aren't doing crap. 

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1 hour ago, wishforsnow said:

Snowing heavy here in Hancock,mi. I can't even see Houghton or even the houses down the the street from me. Glad I get the next two days off for News Years. The city hasn't plowed the street around my house all day. They usually will plow a path in the street but they aren't doing crap. 

We're all jealous of your plowing issues.  Poor guy.   

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