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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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Just now, Ji said:

This looks just like the near miss storm from last mid December 

We generally score 1 out of 4 legit chances so we're getting a few misses out of the way quickly. 

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1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

The one from the like 9-10th? I’ll take one of those again!

No there was a massive storm a few days later. Great upper low pass but it was all rain. I think it was also on a Saturday

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42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Strong/organized storm = bad. No way around that except remarkable luck with every.single.feature

Oddly, the EPS shows the best chance for snow shortly after the front goes through next week. Didn't look into how they got there but around 25% of the eps members drop snow thurs/fri. Could be anafrontal or could be the trailing southern shortwave. Not sure. EPS doesn't like the followup event. Mostly rainers. 

 

Latest Gefs has lots of anafrontal hits overall ranging from southeast forum hits , a couple flush central Md hits and a few west of Frederick maulers Mainly for Wed into Thursday am looking at members . The threat is alive and well ...good tracking ahead

 

Ninjd ..

I'm a slow typer lol

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest Gefs has lots of anafrontal hits overall ranging from southeast forum hits , a couple flush central Md hits and a few west of Frederick maulers Mainly for Wed into Thursday am looking at members . The threat is alive and well ...good tracking ahead

 

Ninjd ..

I'm a slow typer lol

Maybe we're looking too far down the road? Very complicated flow coming up starting middle next week. I'm expecting lots of twist and turns. Just don't have a feel if the turns will be good or not... 

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Can anyone recall when we got snow, particularly significant snow, from an anafrontal? I feel like these are always huge teases and never work out. 

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Can anyone recall when we got snow, particularly significant snow, from an anafrontal? I feel like these are always huge teases and never work out. 

When we actually get snow from these, it's not really anafrontal. The nomenclature gets a bit muddled.  It's really a weak wave along the front.  And from those, we get snow fairly often.  A wave along the front is what we're really looking for.  

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

When we actually get snow from these, it's not really anafrontal. The nomenclature gets a bit muddled.  It's really a weak wave along the front.  And from those, we get snow fairly often.  A wave along the front is what we're really looking for.  

Yep...your right and usually all that's needed is a lil blip of a wave not much at all and definitely hard for globals to pin down past 72 hrs . Many in the past have been short range little surprises we back into.  Usually good for 1-3 2-4.  I believe 2013 we had a couple 

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep...your right and usually all that's needed is a lil blip of a wave not much at all and definitely hard for globals to pin down past 72 hrs . Many in the past have been short range little surprises we back into.  Usually good for 1-3 2-4.  I believe 2013 we had a couple 

13/14 had like 6 or even more. It was remarkable how many worked out. We started expecting them and we can literally go multiple years without getting hit like that. Southern stream is active now. You can see the connection all the way west of Baja with the front.

gfs_ir_us_20.png

 

I'll have to look at ens members and see what's different with the frontal wave solutions that snow but my guess is the front stretches more E-W instead of vertical. You can see that alignment on the gefs member snow maps. 

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

@Bob Chill .....Remember when Nam scored a big coup on that 1 from 2013/14 . It sniffed it from 84 hr lol

 

Ukmet at 144 looks like a possible hit to me ..limited maps but its post frontal 

ukm2.2019121112.144.lant.troplant.prp.fc

 

We can work with this spread. Couple look just like the ukie. Becoming more interested in this...

f138.gif

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Very long range, one feature to maybe keep an eye on is the poleward oriented ridge over the Urals that Eps and GEFS show well established by D10. GEFS retrogrades it toward Scandinavia by the end of the run. This might be what HM is cryptically referring to as the next -NAO precursor.

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

You can see a little bit why here at h5 . Ukmet ejects more of the sw energy quickly east on the heels of the front passage and Euro holds back a good bit 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

GZ_PN_120_0000.gif

Here are the precip panels and temp panels from the Ukie.  Seems like it still has some work to do.

 

 

AD3677E0-2B55-4E15-A633-B561ACDB3381.png

BC553923-C8A1-4D69-8D1A-A1EDDBEBBA4D.png

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10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


Does the temperature map only go out to 132? Just curious, because maps don’t line up based on hour.

 

I’m a moron.

 

372914F0-54E2-4430-8B82-958947729793.png

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL, yeah I wondered why you would post a rain picture. Trouble with me is I’m not smart enough to even look at the time stamp.

Lol, trouble is I did and still messed it up.  Unfortunately with the limited Ukie maps it’s hard to tell if there is much follow up after 144.  

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

I hope the "weaklies" are wrong. 

What, they are so spectacular that should that pattern ever materialize, we will all become so spoiled that nothing less than a BECS will satisfy?

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4 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Can anyone recall when we got snow, particularly significant snow, from an anafrontal? I feel like these are always huge teases and never work out. 

March 1995, and previous to that Dec 1778

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53 minutes ago, frd said:

I hope the "weaklies" are wrong. 

More about AAM. I had that data from earlier filed away from a few years back when there was another debate wrt AAM and snowfall. But I wanted to look this up on a hunch. Low AAM is usually associated with a Nina and high AAM with a nino. So yes they do skew somewhat the way you would expect. But there may be some wag the dog going on there. If we take out Nina’s and cold neutral following Nina’s and only look at years similar to this one, neutral or weak warm enso following neutral or warm enso years...what would the results be for -AAM?

Well there have been 8 such years with a -AAM. 1960-61, 1961-62, 1962-63, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1981-82, 1993-94, 2013-14. 

 6/8 had above avg snowfall. And get this, the 2 that didn’t were 1962 and 1994. Both were barely below normal at DCA but above for most west of 95 and both were memorable winters for various reasons. None of the 8 were “bad”. 

Finally im not even sure how - the AAM is going to be. It was running historically low in the fall but has been on the rise and is near neutral now.

7A18F89E-907B-4538-91E6-0B1FB5A8A2E0.thumb.png.17e59f5ffed9df626281b985dd4bceb1.png

It’s also hard to predict. So using it as a predictor past 10-15 days is risky. 

Putting all that data together, I’m just not sure that one factor is worth much concern.  I see nothing to indicate a -AAM enso neutral NOT following a Nina year would be a bad thing wrt snowfall.  On the contrary the historical data says it’s good for snowfall.  Furthermore, I’m not even 100% sold the AAM stays low all winter.  

 

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