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Hoosier

Here comes winter -- October 28-November 1 Snowstorm Potential

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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Nice catch. Probably the real difference is ground temps.

Farther east for sure, but I'm wondering if even the effects of ground temps in IA/NW IL may end up being somewhat minimized since the past 4-5 days prior to Wednesday would have been in the 30s/40s.
 

In other news, I also got 2.5" from this system, like many others in my area. Might be able to sneak a few more Wed/Thur, but looking like that system slides to our SE.

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Tonight is a good example of how it can snow south of the 540 dm thickness line and the importance of checking soundings.  It happens when you have relatively warmish temps aloft with a fairly deep layer hovering around/slightly below freezing.  In this case it may be snowing in places with 546 dm thicknesses and every so often it can snow with thicknesses even a tad higher than that.

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HRRR hinting at some thundersnow :wub: It would be crazy to get an accumulating snow this early here, especially after the April 15 storm barely over 6 months ago. Normally I'd complain about the cold at this time of the year but we have actually had good fall temps these past couple months (unlike 2018, the year without transition seasons)

thundersnow.thumb.png.056d24a21f377e189dce41bfd25fe1e2.png

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Sort of a minor detail but there should be a little lake enhanced precip on the western side of the lake before the flow backs around on Thursday.  

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12z Euro has 2-3" all the way to the Chicago lakefront.  Def zone is definitely the better bet to get some accumulation there as winds flip offshore.  Should be some moderate bursts in that precip shield.

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that seems to be the way to go, probably better for mby anyways

flakes falling during trick or treating looking like a good bet so that's a win

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8 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Euro is south with the initial front band but makes up for it Thursday with a nicer look at H5 that leads to a fairly long period of accumulating snow on Thursday. 

Yes

Can you post the snow map?

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My goodness, I just came back from a ten day trip to New Orleans and the MS Gulf coast to find a serious winter thread for the Midwest after basking in what will probably be my last 70 and 80 degree temps of the year.  On to winter!

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3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Now thats getting just close enough to start p#%@ng me off, better start bitching thread lol.

Yeah, same sh*tty gradient bisecting my county as with every storm last Feb. Honestly, I wanna puke when I see that

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18z RAP and HRRR differ on amounts, but the common theme is to bring snow farther south into parts of far northwest Indiana especially away from the lake.  Wonder if LOT will bite.

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z RAP and HRRR differ on amounts, but the common theme is to bring snow farther south into parts of far northwest Indiana especially away from the lake.  Wonder if LOT will bite.

I'm in the same boat with ya. GRR has been down-playing any chance with this synoptic threat to this point, but with models continuing to up the ante they may finally get on board. 

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5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I'm in the same boat with ya. GRR has been down-playing any chance with this synoptic threat to this point, but with models continuing to up the ante they may finally get on board. 

Really not sure what's going to happen here at my place on Wed morning.  You could argue anything from all rain to a sloppy couple inches or so.  I suspect neither of those outcomes will be right and that the answer lies somewhere in between.  I just still have a hard time believing that the onshore flow at that progged strength is going to be entirely successful at preventing snow from occurring once you get this distance away from the lake.  Now this is assuming heavy precip rates to assist with cooling.  If precip stays on the lighter side for some reason, then it would have a very hard time snowing. 

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18z NAM is deeper with the surface low.  Keep an eye on that to see if it's a trend... quicker deepening = more robust low level wind response = more of a problem where trees are caked in snow.  

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z NAM is deeper with the surface low.  Keep an eye on that to see if it's a trend... quicker deepening = more robust low level wind response = more of a problem where trees are caked in snow.  

Really hoping for a snow globe effect while the kids trick or treat and no appreciable accumulation for that reason alone. I don't want to be losing tree limbs or being out there knocking snow off my more sensitive landscaping. These early/late season sloppy cake jobs have been commonplace the last few years up here and are a real PITA.

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30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z NAM is deeper with the surface low.  Keep an eye on that to see if it's a trend... quicker deepening = more robust low level wind response = more of a problem where trees are caked in snow.  

Yeah that's going to cause widespread power outages.  Likely won't be a problem here since temps will be going below freezing shortly after the snow starts, although some caking of the trees is inevitable.

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34 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z NAM is deeper with the surface low.  Keep an eye on that to see if it's a trend... quicker deepening = more robust low level wind response = more of a problem where trees are caked in snow.  

Won't even need much wind, given the leaf situation as of now.

Probably will be tree damage tonight alone if there is an axis of 3-6".

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Pulling a bunch of stats right now for select cities in the area...and as modeled, this is going to be a historic/record breaking event.

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