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Hoosier

Here comes winter -- October 28-November 1 Snowstorm Potential

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18z GFS still holding on to the strong storm scenario while all the other models trended weaker.  The 18z ICON only produces a couple inches in eastern Iowa.

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31 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Could see there being a narrow band of 2-4/3-5 for the late Tuesday night-Wednesday morning round.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Was thinking the same thing.  Nice signal showing up for moderate to at times heavy precip.  Could envision a period of snowfall rates around 1" per hour on the colder surfaces.

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22 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

3k NAM looks to be taking the warm lake water into consideration

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Very noticeable.  There will be an impact for sure but don't know about the snow line being pushed 15-20 miles inland.

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28 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Lake shadow + Heat Island = IDK??

Both valid concerns.  I just find it hard to believe it would go quite as far inland as the 3km NAM.  Now certainly the best accums will be pretty far inland but I have a hard time believing the cutoff between snow/no snow will be that far from the lake in this setup.  I guess we'll see.

00z HRRR coming in better... even tries to toss me a bone. 

 

HRRRFLT2_prec_ptype_035.png.b7356e4d94bf8c6fd519b82bf9dc574d.png

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59 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Both valid concerns.  I just find it hard to believe it would go quite as far inland as the 3km NAM.  Now certainly the best accums will be pretty far inland but I have a hard time believing the cutoff between snow/no snow will be that far from the lake in this setup.  I guess we'll see.

00z HRRR coming in better... even tries to toss me a bone. 

 

HRRRFLT2_prec_ptype_035.png.b7356e4d94bf8c6fd519b82bf9dc574d.png

Nice to see the 1/2 county NW of mby teasings picking up right where they left off last winter :gun_bandana::arrowhead:

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Yeah that 00Z HRRR run was kinda nuts with a squeaker band that far south late tomorrow night early Wed.  Got a little support from the other convective models.  I get nervous seeing a couple inches of flakes fly even to my NW, this early.  This pattern has been locked in for awhile.  Like Stebo said hope it holds for another 6 weeks anyway, could get an early Dec. ball buster.

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Well if nothing else for areas that miss out on the better amounts -- roughly Chicago east -- there should be a period where it looks like winter with some wind blown snow on the back end.  Magnitude of wind will of course depend on how quickly the low deepens.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Well if nothing else for areas that miss out on the better amounts -- roughly Chicago east -- there should be a period where it looks like winter with some wind blown snow on the back end.  Magnitude of wind will of course depend on how quickly the low deepens.

And that's a pretty nice win given it's so early in the season.  

EDIT:  Forgot to mention earlier, I'll be relocating further south here in about 6 weeks.  About 4 blocks south on the south side of Erie more into the country lol.  Offer on the new house was accepted yesterday. :tomato:

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Just now, cyclone77 said:

And that's a pretty nice win given it so early in the season.  

I can count on about 2 fingers the number of times I can remember it snowing on halloween.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

I can count on about 2 fingers the number of times I can remember it snowing on halloween.

Yeah it's pretty cool how it can be like this, or have near 80 degree warmth.  Halloween is one of the biggest crap shoots there are in regards to weather compared to most holidays.

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

And that's a pretty nice win given it's so early in the season.  

EDIT:  Forgot to mention earlier, I'll be relocating further south here in about 6 weeks.  About 4 blocks south on the south side of Erie more into the country lol.  Offer on the new house was accepted yesterday. :tomato:

4 blocks huh?  Hope precip type won't be more of an issue.  :tomato:

I went to elementary school with a kid who moved across the street.  But hey, gotta do what works I guess.  :lol:

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While all other models continue to trend weaker and more progressive with the wave, the GFS doubles down, dropping over 15" in eastern Iowa. FV3 core continues to be disappointing.

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Getting some very robust snowfall here.  A solid bright green band, with a few spots of yellow, is producing a moderate to heavy rate with large flakes.  I'm sure I'm over an inch now.  We have a real shot at 2".

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Getting some very robust snowfall here.  A solid bright green band, with a few spots of yellow, is producing a moderate to heavy rate with large flakes.  I'm sure I'm over an inch now.  We have a real shot at 2".

Very nice.  Visibilities AOB a mile extend back towards Grinnell and Pella, so you should have nice snow for a decent while longer.  

Have a 50/50 mix of rain/snow here now.  Large solitary flakes raining down with the rain.  Temp has dropped from 39 to 35 in the past half hour.

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19 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah it's pretty cool how it can be like this, or have near 80 degree warmth.  Halloween is one of the biggest crap shoots there are in regards to weather compared to most holidays.

Screw the 80 degrees.  I'm just flipping out we're actually having a fall season this year, lovin every minute of it. lol.

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