Hoosier

Here comes winter -- October 28-November 1 Snowstorm Potential

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Given how the upper air pattern is trending, any snow from both systems will likely be limited to IA/WI/MI.

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4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

UKMET took same path (roughly) as today's storm. While I'd love that personally, it's bucking the current trends..

Full sending this one. We'll see what happens, it's not too late!

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5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Runs have been seemingly trending more and more that the back end might thump Lower Michigan decently

I love RN>>SN thumpers and I'm feeling pretty good that we will have a legit shot. 

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Narrow area of snow in IL on Wednesday before WAA flips to rain?

Would add that areas near the lake may have precip type problems due to onshore flow (albeit fairly light).  But this one may be able to snow a little bit farther south than the 28th-29th wave.

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7 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

It is unexpectedly silent in here considering the casually optimistic eastern trends in some of the models this last run...

 

For this time of the year, I’m not getting wrapped up with each model run. I’ve got all winter to stay awake awaiting model runs. I will call this a major win for mby if I see some rn/sn mix 

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10 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

It is unexpectedly silent in here considering the casually optimistic eastern trends in some of the models this last run...

 

"Yeah lol, that CMC run gives me like 5 inches"

Fighting climo here so it's hard to get too excited. IF the system ends up east, we still fight the warmth shadow of the GLs wrt thermals as seen in the 0z GEM run. It's almost a no win situation this time of year save for the rarity of a N-S mega trough we had with the 11-2/3-1966 storm. Been a couple early birds during Oct (10-19-89 and 10-26-97) that somehow managed to beat climo but the odds are really long.  

27/6z GEFS illustrates this well. Look at that GLs shadow around the Mitt! 

 

20191027 6z GEFS h132 SNdepth.png

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12z GFS east and weaker.  Caved in to the Euro.  Also colder temps for Eastern Iowa during the second snowstorm, although the GFS still dumps over 6 inches here.

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14 minutes ago, Natester said:

12z GFS east and weaker.  Caved in to the Euro.  Also colder temps for Eastern Iowa during the second snowstorm, although the GFS still dumps over 6 inches here.

Wave 1 only? 2-wave combo on TT is much more. Map includes sleet tho fwiw. I like the bombing low portrayed but still amounts to non-accum's here. Just a couple weeks early for this area to go big.

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Just now, RogueWaves said:

Wave 1 only? 2-wave combo on TT is much more. Map includes sleet tho fwiw. I like the bombing low portrayed but still amounts to non-accum's here. Just a couple weeks early for this area to go big.

I'm referring to the second storm.  No change on the first snow system.

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

"Yeah lol, that CMC run gives me like 5 inches"

Fighting climo here so it's hard to get too excited. IF the system ends up east, we still fight the warmth shadow of the GLs wrt thermals as seen in the 0z GEM run. It's almost a no win situation this time of year save for the rarity of a N-S mega trough we had with the 11-2/3-1966 storm. Been a couple early birds during Oct (10-19-89 and 10-26-97) that somehow managed to beat climo but the odds are really long.  

27/6z GEFS illustrates this well. Look at that GLs shadow around the Mitt! 

 

20191027 6z GEFS h132 SNdepth.png

Yeah, the lake is the bully you have to fight at this time of year before it tends to become more friendly lol.  I think a situation that would work for southern Michigan to keep the warm shadow more limited would be if we had a positively tilted trough and weak surface low scooting by to the south, which would keep the low level flow on the weak side even after it backed onshore.  But it doesn't appear to be the case with this setup.

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12z Euro looks decent for CID-MSN-GRB.

It's sort of easy to forget in light of the previous runs but even a 3-6" type deal for that corridor would be pretty noteworthy at this time of year.  

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2" or so seems like a solid bet at this juncture out here in Omaha, looking forward to some better totals & better pictures towards the Great Lakes.

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So the last time that Chicago had 0.5" of snow in the month of October?  Have to go back to 1989, which had 6.3".  Only 3 Octobers since then have produced any measurable snow -- 1992 (0.3"), 2006 (0.3"), 2014 (0.1")

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39 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So the last time that Chicago had 0.5" of snow in the month of October?  Have to go back to 1989, which had 6.3".  Only 3 Octobers since then have produced any measurable snow -- 1992 (0.3"), 2006 (0.3"), 2014 (0.1")

Also... in case this bleeds over into November 1.  From 1990 onward, only 2 Novembers have produced measurable snow in the first 7 days of the month... 1993 (0.1"), 1997 (0.3").

So to summarize... from 1990 onward, there have been 5 different years with measurable snow at ORD between October 1 and November 7.  1992, 1993, 1997, 2006, 2014.  But only 3 years when restricting to October -- 1992, 2006, 2014.

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Models don't have Cedar Rapids getting above freezing on Thursday, which is a good thing because when temps are at 32F or above, the snow will cake on trees (especially with trees that still have their leaves) and cause tree damage, leading to power outages.  Anyways, significant snow looks quite likely for Cedar Rapids on Thursday, first time since October 26, 1997, at least it won't be a very wet snow.  Can't say the same for the onset of tomorrow's snow, though.

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looking good for a couple inches tomorrow night in Madison, will be interesting to see how efficient the accumulation is on pavement.  Should make for an interesting tuesday morning commute

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1 hour ago, madwx said:

looking good for a couple inches tomorrow night in Madison, will be interesting to see how efficient the accumulation is on pavement.  Should make for an interesting tuesday morning commute

I was thinking, didn't the area around Madison have accumulating snow on April 27 or 28?  If so, you could be talking about going barely 6 months between legit accumulating snows.  It is pretty impressive to have that short of a gap between measurable snows of any amount let alone more significant snow.

Edit:  went back and checked and it looks like the heavier amounts were more toward the IL/WI border.

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Evening of April 27. Morning of April 28.

We were expecting more snow than what fell on April 14, and had the sleds ready to go again, but things didn't quite work out.5c84013d6d617c3757c6aed044c88546.jpg962f5375939f7903c6eb52b617fdc4c1.jpg

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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