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Hoosier

Here comes winter -- October 28-November 1 Snowstorm Potential

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00z HRRR 10:1 snow totals for tomorrow's snow looks nowhere near as impressive.  Only a few areas reach 2 inches, with the exception of the Michigan pennesola.

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31 minutes ago, Natester said:

00z HRRR 10:1 snow totals for tomorrow's snow looks nowhere near as impressive.  Only a few areas reach 2 inches, with the exception of the Michigan pennesola.

The precip total (rain and snow) across the region is very dry on this run... much less than any other model.  It has only 0.05" in Cedar Rapids.  The Euro has 0.40" and other models are 0.20 - 0.30".

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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The precip total (rain and snow) across the region is very dry on this run... much less than any other model.  It has only 0.05" in Cedar Rapids.  The Euro has 0.40" and other models are around 0.30".

Not sure how it's doing that far out this season, but last winter it wasn't too good beyond 18hrs in regards to precip amounts.  Seemed to low-ball amounts beyond the 18hr range.

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00z NAM 3k 10:1 snow accumulations has a more realistic scenario with widespread 1 to 2.5 inches of snow.

EDIT: Hour 84 of the 00z NAM 12k is just like the 12z CMC.  I highly doubt that will verify.

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4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The weaker/less phased version of the system ala what the 12z EC shows benefits the QCA.  Would mean a mostly snow scenario with just a brief period of rain Thu.  Looking forward to the first flakes of the season.

Have a feeling you might reel this one in.  And even if you don't end up in the main band, it's still very early lol

I will be in LaSalle county on Halloween... drive might be a little interesting.  

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40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Have a feeling you might reel this one in.  And even if you don't end up in the main band, it's still very early lol

I will be in LaSalle county on Halloween... drive might be a little interesting.  

Yeah some interesting trends the past day or two.  This reminds me of the late Oct 1997 storm that dropped a few inches here, and quite a bit more on Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  

Tonight's GFS dumps about a foot on the area.  Would be a hell of a mess with the trees still about 80% full of leaves.

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10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah some interesting trends the past day or two.  This reminds me of the late Oct 1997 storm that dropped a few inches here, and quite a bit more on Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  

Tonight's GFS dumps about a foot on the area.  Would be a hell of a mess with the trees still about 80% full of leaves.

I was looking up stats on October snow for MLI.  Since 1931, the combined October snowfall total at MLI is 13.3".  88 Octobers to achieve that total.  Really puts the GFS in perspective.

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On 10/26/2019 at 11:17 AM, Chicago Storm said:

Given how the upper air pattern is trending, any snow from both systems will likely be limited to IA/WI/MI.

:yikes:

 

gonna end up a 1-2 event IYBY

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11 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah some interesting trends the past day or two.  This reminds me of the late Oct 1997 storm that dropped a few inches here, and quite a bit more on Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  

Tonight's GFS dumps about a foot on the area.  Would be a hell of a mess with the trees still about 80% full of leaves.

Yeah, since the snow in your area is most likely going to be of the wet type (early in the event).  As for here, it'll be of the drier type, extremely rare for October.  Multiple models has us below freezing for much of Thursday.  The thing I was worried about concerning this upcoming winter storm is power outages, which doesn't seem likely since the winds won't be too strong and the temps will be below freezing.  The vast majority of the trees around here still have leaves on them.

 

Also, 12z ICON is faster with the system while the 00z Euro is slower.

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So the big question is how much to allow for melting given how early in the season it is.  There isn't model consensus yet on amounts which makes it difficult to figure but obviously not actually going to see everything that is modeled be on the ground.  Breaks in the precip will allow for melting.  That being said, it won't be 60 or 70 degrees the day before and temps will be dropping below freezing so I think a large portion of what is modeled may actually accumulate.  

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Just now, Thundersnow12 said:

6z Euro bumped SE again from 0z run.

Nice early weenie band with initial advection/fronto snows Wednesday morning into western Chi metro.

There's the band I was mentioning.  Some love for areas that are just a little too far south for later tonight.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

12z Canadian is still a mess.  UKMET looks a bit strung out too. 

Seems to be the new trend with guidance, as the 12z Euro is following...though not to as severe of a degree.

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Yes it's still october, but I'm still gonna reiterate how much effort it has taken to get a phased, wound up system(snow or not) in the midwest lately. Seems weak, strung out, progressive waves are the preferred outcome in the majority of cases.

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16 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

12z Euro goes to pound town across northern Illinois and Chicago metro with early intiail onset band

That band is such a tease around here.  Marginal thermal profiles in general + flow off a 50+ degree lake is no good.  Wetbulbs may get down around a couple thousand feet though early on so maybe can't rule out some wet flakes mixing in during heavier bursts early morning.  

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56 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That band is such a tease around here.  Marginal thermal profiles in general + flow off a 50+ degree lake is no good.  Wetbulbs may get down around a couple thousand feet though early on so maybe can't rule out some wet flakes mixing in during heavier bursts early morning.  

Continue to parse the data. Bottom line, the lake is not your friend w/early events

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14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Continue to parse the data. Bottom line, the lake is not your friend w/early events

True that.  The good thing is that the flow looks fairly light (maybe 5-10 mph on Wednesday morning) and I am located several miles inland... so if thermal profiles aloft can trend a little cooler then it might lead to a longer period of mix/snow... big if though.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

True that.  The good thing is that the flow looks fairly light (maybe 5-10 mph on Wednesday morning) and I am located several miles inland... so if thermal profiles aloft can trend a little cooler then it might lead to a longer period of mix/snow... big if though.

Best of luck bud. Euro track looks like perfection ORD to DTW smack-down later in winter. :sled: Patience to all..

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