Hoosier Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 This thread is for systems showing up in the medium-long range. Have already been talking about it a bit in the seasonal thread, but the extended looks to have some unusually cold air to tap into with even some model/ensemble suggestion of a wintry system or two. Nothing set in stone of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Weird looking at GEFS member snow accumulations this early in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 The ridge over the NE Pacific is progged to be robust and will send cold south (first into the west but it will swing east and may have staying power given the -NAO)...Canada and the northern Rockies have been building snow pack which will help. That energy ejecting out of the SW the last couple days of the month could conceivably do something if it ejects right...the SE ridge fighting back probably favors parts of the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes over the Ohio Valley. After that it stays chilly into early November. As nice as the EPS is, its warm bias in the extended has almost been as obnoxious as the GEFS cold bias...the EPS is up and down (probably slightly cool for say Chicago and slightly mild for Ohio overall) through the 29th/30th then quite chilly, so it’s not warm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 For better or worse, we'll be dealing with the gulf of alsaka ridge all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: For better or worse, we'll be dealing with the gulf of alsaka ridge all winter It can be good if it centers near the coast. Too far east and it's cold and dry. Further west and the storm track goes through the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 The Blob... In the past has produced, fingers crossed for this winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 12z GFS with first sticking snow day before Halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2019 Author Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said: 12z GFS with first sticking snow day before Halloween Pretty good consensus on a storm in that timeframe... at least for now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 I see blue in that band. A mangled flake watch may become necessary in some areas if trends warrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I see blue in that band. A mangled flake watch may become necessary in some areas if trends warrant. Yep. 1st flake icon of the new season in my grid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 The 00z GFS is really close to being a Halloween freakshow. As is, it's an impressively deepening storm. But if the northern energy drops in a little sooner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 Anyone remember the last time the 516 dm height contour was modeled that far south in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: The 00z GFS is really close to being a Halloween freakshow. As is, it's an impressively deepening storm. But if the northern energy drops in a little sooner... Argh. Deepens way too far to the east of us compared to the 06Z 10/20 run. Just raw crappiness, no fun weather for the north-central Midwest (WI/N. IL/E. IA/E. MN). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: Anyone remember the last time the 516 dm height contour was modeled that far south in October? '92? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 this is my year folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 I think this is a great year for the midwest and western Great Lakes. We should squeeze out an above average year here too based on Neutral/Weak Enso conditions which are our best winter snow years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: this is our year folks Maybe this puts 13-14 to shame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: this is my year folks Hittin' it on a Tuesday morning, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 just decided to check in and see what the pre winter banter was. Good things seem to be happening. carry on.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 50 minutes ago, Baum said: just decided to check in and see what the pre winter banter was. Good things seem to be happening. carry on.............. Checked medium/long range, instantly thought the same... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Euro crushes parts of IA/MN with a blizzard before Halloween and probably severe with upper 60 dews getting into srn IL and north of the OH River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 51 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Euro crushes parts of IA/MN with a blizzard before Halloween and probably severe with upper 60 dews getting into srn IL and north of the OH River. This is the kind of winter I love, more of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said: Euro crushes parts of IA/MN with a blizzard before Halloween and probably severe with upper 60 dews getting into srn IL and north of the OH River. yes, definitely no wx zzzzz's around Halloween . From high of 70 on the 31st to low of 30 on the 1st. Lots of rain across the OV over the next 10 days too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 16 hours ago, Stebo said: Maybe this puts 13-14 to shame? Impossible lol. But i can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Impossible lol. But i can dream. I didn't think 65" in 24 hours was possible here. Detroit can definitely break 100" in a year given their location. Just need the right setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 flakes before Halloween looking like a decent bet at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 00z Euro continues to crush IA, MN and WI with a blizzard next week. 00z CMC has two snowstorms next week also. 06z GFS and 12z ICON shows nothing so far. If the Euro or CMC verifies, look at the potential for widespread power outages due to most of the trees still having leaves on them (think of October 26, 1997). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 10-26-97 delivered a hvy 8" in Kzoo. Tree damage was extensive! This one has low party @ A-L-E-K's place written all over it, so main concern on this side of the lake looks to be more wind and wave damage. NOT a good time to be a WMI lakeshore property owner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: flakes before Halloween looking like a decent bet at this point Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 23/12z GFS @ 500mb = eye-popping loop for next week's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.