NNE Cold Season Thread

[backedgeapproaching]

Holding to meager "pack" at home..especially compared to most of town.

 

[#NoPoles]

Merry Christmas to all you snow loving weenies!

[J.Spin]

On 12/24/2019 at 7:35 AM, #NoPoles said:

We were in the upper 30s, 40ish yesterday and full sun! I was outside without a jacket! Now we are in the upper teens. I really think I like the temp range 35-40. We had 3 days of sunshine in a row. Good skiing weather. But the quiet calm weather is so abnormal, it's weird

These next couple of systems (a smaller one on Friday, and then a larger one starting Sunday) have generally looked like mixed precipitation, but the back side of the second one seems to consistently show snow potential in the models.  It’s interesting that some models like the ECMWF and CMC show more wintry potential in that second system, but the BTV NWS doesn’t even mention anything about that in their discussion, so I wouldn’t lend it much credence at this point.  For now, I’d certainly watch that Monday/Tuesday period for potential ski options depending on how the back side of the storm cycle plays out.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Yes, BTV honking on the rain potential however

[wxeyeNH]

Several days away but some potential for significant ice depending on where the next system goes.  Euro is colder but GFS is trending that way.

Here is the Weatherbell ice product for the storm.  Something to watch

[alex]

13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Several days away but some potential for significant ice depending on where the next system goes.  Euro is colder but GFS is trending that way.

Here is the Weatherbell ice product for the storm.  Something to watch

Yuck. I hate ice. And fortunately we don't get a whole lot of it in my spot. 

Merry Christmas to all. Been a rough few days - my 5 yo broke a femur skiing on his first day of school breaj, had to be sent to Dartmouth for surgery. Came back home yesterday. It's really hard to see a kid suffer so much and be unable to do anything. Today he was in much better spirit, and that was the best Xmas present. 

And on that note, a solid 5" cover here but just down In Conway it's bare ground. I have to believe a brown Xmas is a pretty rare occurrence in North Conway. 

[wxeyeNH]

29 minutes ago, alex said:

Yuck. I hate ice. And fortunately we don't get a whole lot of it in my spot. 

Merry Christmas to all. Been a rough few days - my 5 yo broke a femur skiing on his first day of school breaj, had to be sent to Dartmouth for surgery. Came back home yesterday. It's really hard to see a kid suffer so much and be unable to do anything. Today he was in much better spirit, and that was the best Xmas present. 

And on that note, a solid 5" cover here but just down In Conway it's bare ground. I have to believe a brown Xmas is a pretty rare occurrence in North Conway. 

Alex,  I have been thinking about Armani.  What an ordeal.  Hope this accident will not scare him off for skiing.   Glad that modern medicine can do so many things.  

Fatal ski accident at Loon yesterday.  Pretty rare in this day and age.  71 year old found off the trail.  Guy was from my area, Bristol. 

Weatherwise things look to get more interesting.  948mb low on the GFS at hour 200 something.  I'll post that in the misery thread.

 

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, alex said:

Yuck. I hate ice. And fortunately we don't get a whole lot of it in my spot. 

Merry Christmas to all. Been a rough few days - my 5 yo broke a femur skiing on his first day of school breaj, had to be sent to Dartmouth for surgery. Came back home yesterday. It's really hard to see a kid suffer so much and be unable to do anything. Today he was in much better spirit, and that was the best Xmas present. 

And on that note, a solid 5" cover here but just down In Conway it's bare ground. I have to believe a brown Xmas is a pretty rare occurrence in North Conway. 

Honestly churns my stomach a little bit (your son getting hurt, not the erasure of snowpack!). I know my little boy is going to get hurt, but it doesn't stop my from wincing every time he takes a tumble. Glad he's rebounded today though. 

[#NoPoles]

This winter is def no repeat of last winter

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, #NoPoles said:

This winter is def no repeat of last winter

There are some similarities. I’ve had snow in my back yard starting around Veteran’s Day both years. Both years it got reduced to the point where a more diligent observer would question whether it should still be considered “coverage”. The difference is that this year it hasn’t been replenished as quickly. This is all anecdotal since I’m the slacker weather guy, especially compared to my NNE neighbors PF and JSpin. They could expound further but it’s not all that dissimilar yet, though not exactly the same either. 

[Ginx snewx]

On 12/25/2019 at 5:39 PM, alex said:

Yuck. I hate ice. And fortunately we don't get a whole lot of it in my spot. 

Merry Christmas to all. Been a rough few days - my 5 yo broke a femur skiing on his first day of school breaj, had to be sent to Dartmouth for surgery. Came back home yesterday. It's really hard to see a kid suffer so much and be unable to do anything. Today he was in much better spirit, and that was the best Xmas present. 

And on that note, a solid 5" cover here but just down In Conway it's bare ground. I have to believe a brown Xmas is a pretty rare occurrence in North Conway. 

Shit sorry for the little man.

[powderfreak]

On 12/24/2019 at 3:43 PM, backedgeapproaching said:

Holding to meager "pack" at home..especially compared to most of town.

 

Looked very similar here a couple days ago.  Still fully white and crunchy depth.  Only 2-3” now though.  Bare ground under the pine stands.

[alex]

On 12/25/2019 at 7:52 PM, OceanStWx said:

Honestly churns my stomach a little bit (your son getting hurt, not the erasure of snowpack!). I know my little boy is going to get hurt, but it doesn't stop my from wincing every time he takes a tumble. Glad he's rebounded today though. 

Thank you all. It's a struggle. I want to let him be and grow confident and unafraid and do the crazy things I've never had a the courage to Do, but at times the price you pay is a giant heartbreak. I still struggle with the memory of seeing him screaming in pain, I'd never seen him like that and it was agonizing. But he's doing much better and yesterday he had his smile back which meant the world. Thank you all for your support!

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.04” L.E.

We picked up a couple tenths of snow on the front end of this system, but since then the precipitation has generally been liquid and very light.  We’re still under a Winter Weather Advisory in the area until 11:00 A.M.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 34.7 F

Sky: Cloudy/Mist/Sprinkles

Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

[wxeyeNH]

Struggling up to 30F at noon.  Light freezing rain.  Main roads are fine but the hill dirt roads are ice skating rinks.  I have lots of errands to do but can't get off my hill yet.

[backedgeapproaching]

Low-mid 40s dews are brutal on snowpack. Flipped spotlight on and looks like almost all snow vanished in a flash. Was ripening throughout the day, but mid 40s surge made quick work of it. 

 

[dendrite]

Still a solid 3" pack throughout the yard here. It's a little thin under some of the spruce trees though.

Max so far is 33.6F, but it's back down to 32.5F. I see Gene is up to 41F on the hill, but the lower els from Woodstock to Plymouth/Ashland to Sanbornton are dropping back into that 30-32F range. Of course the boundary is already through aloft so we won't mix out now until 1000ft is getting into the 30s.

[dryslot]

High of 34.5°F back down to 29.7°F and a special weather statement for black ice overnight.

[Hitman]

Happy holidays!

finally back in the north country.  This sounds promising.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 404 AM EST Saturday...As the aforementioned upper low traverses
the region during the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, active weather
will persist across the North Country, but confidence is much higher
by this point in the storm that the ptype will be all snow in the
higher terrain, and a mix of rain and snow in the valleys. Fairly
widespread precipitation will continue through the day Tuesday with
some light accumulations possible before the flow turns to the west-
northwest and precipitation becomes more terrain focused. Some good
indications that conditions become favorable for a period of upslope
snow Tuesday night through Wednesday with a closed 700mb circulation
northeast of the forecast area, which could result in some nice
higher elevations snows.

[tamarack]

11 hours ago, dryslot said:

High of 34.5°F back down to 29.7°F and a special weather statement for black ice overnight.

7 AM temps listed on GYX's site showed LEW at 25, next coolest were PWM and FVE at 31.  Lewiston: The state's new cold pole.  About 10° cooler than my frost-pocket location.

[J.Spin]

42 minutes ago, Hitman said:

Happy holidays!

finally back in the north country.  This sounds promising.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 404 AM EST Saturday...Some good indications that conditions become favorable for a period of upslope snow Tuesday night through Wednesday with a closed 700mb circulation northeast of the forecast area, which could result in some nice
higher elevations snows.

I saw that in the discussion and was going to post about it as well.  The models have been showing some potentially decent backside snows for quite a while, even back when the storm looked like it was going to be substantially warmer.  Ideally it would be nice to get some dense snow topped off by higher ratio powder to cover the old base and set up the powder skiing, but we’ll have to see how it plays out.  The BTV NWS mentioning it is a good sign though.

[J.Spin]

I just got a text alert that we’re under a Winter Storm Watch in association with this next system, which has been named Winter Storm Gage.

[Hitman]

4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

I saw that in the discussion and was going to post about it as well.  The models have been showing some potentially decent backside snows for quite a while, even back when the storm looked like it was going to be substantially warmer.  Ideally it would be nice to get some dense snow topped off by higher ratio powder to cover the old base and set up the powder skiing, but we’ll have to see how it plays out.  The BTV NWS mentioning it is a good sign though.

Yeah, I don’t want to get ahead of myself or anything, but I could use a little luck to shine upon us this week.  I just got my first 2 days on the boards yesterday and today.  Needless to say, conditions were suboptimal.  But I put in my time so I figure come Tuesday Wednesday things should turn.

[backedgeapproaching]

Sneaky nice day today in these parts to get a hike in with bare ground and little wind before this junk arrives next few days.

Just praying for sleet or 33F rain here..no need for ZR..which is rare here anyway.

 

 

 

[backedgeapproaching]

What a mess....

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

I just got a text alert that we’re under a Winter Storm Watch in association with this next system, which has been named Winter Storm Gage.

Here’s this afternoon’s projected accumulations map from the BTV NWS through 7:00 P.M. Tuesday:

[#NoPoles]

Dear god, I have no idea what bug I got, at first I just thought I was old...tired not a lot of energy. Then as the day went on i was light headed, hot and cold at the same time, and my skin hurt. I got to the end of the work day and I honestly could not stand up, I had 0 energy. So I popped some advil and sat on the couch at work for 30mins because I couldn't make it to my car. I just sat there and I remember talking to my legs trying to get them to stand me up and walk to my car, but my body was like nope we stay on couch. Eventually the advil kicked in and I drove home. But holy crap I can't stand up for long periods of time. My body just feels like a sack of dead weight. So I'm in bed, not moving at 730pm. But it's weird, I'm not congested, no cough, no sore throat, just no appetite, no energy, and cant keep a stable body temp. 

[NorEastermass128]

2 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Dear god, I have no idea what bug I got, at first I just thought I was old...tired not a lot of energy. Then as the day went on i was light headed, hot and cold at the same time, and my skin hurt. I got to the end of the work day and I honestly could not stand up, I had 0 energy. So I popped some advil and sat on the couch at work for 30mins because I couldn't make it to my car. I just sat there and I remember talking to my legs trying to get them to stand me up and walk to my car, but my body was like nope we stay on couch. Eventually the advil kicked in and I drove home. But holy crap I can't stand up for long periods of time. My body just feels like a sack of dead weight. So I'm in bed, not moving at 730pm. But it's weird, I'm not congested, no cough, no sore throat, just no appetite, no energy, and cant keep a stable body temp. 

Odd.  I experienced something similar earlier this week. Lasted 12 hours and was gone. 

[J.Spin]

Below are the latest maps for upcoming Winter Storm Gage from the BTV NWS.  For projected accumulations through midday Tuesday, shading is generally in the 6-8” range for snow in valleys in this area, with some 8-12” shading for the parts of the spine of the Greens.  The point forecast here suggests something in the 5-11” range through Tuesday, although the models also suggest another couple of days of snow with upslope on the back side of the storm cycle continuing into Thursday:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 452 AM EST Sunday...We remain on the backside of an upper low slowly progressing eastwards on Wednesday. There are still a few vort maxes within that will advect across the North Country during the day. Coupled with a cooler air mass and southwest flow, we should see favorable conditions for snow showers during the day. This will be most true along the Greens and Adirondacks, where orographic enhancement will aid development. The slopes will benefit for the New Year.

[wxeyeNH]

Idiots are out on Newfound Lake walking on very thin ice.  I took the drone up yesterday.  Lake just skimmed over a few nights ago but days have been above freezing with nights in the upper 20's.  This really puts first responders at risk.  New snow will cover this thin ice tonight making things very dangerous all week without any arctic blast to follow.

Drone video over Newfound that I took Sat PM