Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest 2019

[Bob Chill]

BWI 11/11

IAD 10/31

DCA 11/17

RIC 11/11

Tie Rainfall 10.10"

[tplbge]

BWI: 11/3

DCA: 11/3

IAD: 11/3

RIC: 11/23

Tiebreaker: 7.46

[RIC Airport]

BWI 11/13

IAD 11/13

DCA 11/14

RIC 11/14

Tie Rainfall 8.17"

[WxUSAF]

3 more hours! Get your entries in!

[WxWatcher007]

BWI: 11/13

IAD: 11/12

DCA: 11/23

RIC: 11/13

TB: 4.08”

[Stormpc]

BWI 11/1

IAD 10/31

DCA 11/21

RIC 11/1

Tie Rainfall 8.92

[George BM]

On 9/28/2019 at 8:55 PM, George BM said:

IAD: 1/20

DCA: 1/20

BWI: 1/20

RIC: 1/20

Oct Precip: 99.76"

Update: 

IAD: 10/25

DCA: 11/03

BWI: 10/25

RIC: 11/03

Oct Precip: 24.76"

[WxUSAF]

Unlocking so we can chat about freezes as this gets more plausible 

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Unlocking so we can chat about freezes as this gets more plausible 

Should be able to combine it with discussions of New Years plans.

[WEATHER53]

Where is the chart?

Thanks 

[Roger Smith]

Oops, no tie-breaker.

But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. 

Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south.

[wxdude64]

On 10/10/2019 at 8:57 PM, Roger Smith said:

Oops, no tie-breaker.

But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. 

Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south.

RIC sits in a pretty good cooling spot, they can hit a freeze pretty early some years when others around don't.

[losetoa6]

Looks like Saturday morning could be it for some n+w burbs. 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like Saturday morning could be it for some n+w burbs. 

Yeah, I've been looking ahead and forgot to pay much attention to this weekend.  Maybe IAD too?  3k NAM would suggest so.  

[arlwx]

Croosposting from obs... outside the beltway threat for the 19th;

Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Stafford-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg,
Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus,
Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon,
Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Staunton, Waynesboro,
Stuarts Draft, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville,
Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City,
Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon,
Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Falmouth,
Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Leesburg,
Ashburn, Sterling, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat,
Ruddle, and Sugar Grove
315 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas
  of frost.

* WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and
  the Potomac Highlands.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.


 

 

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, arlwx said:

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas
  of frost.

* WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and
  the Potomac Highlands.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.
 

 

Taking the over for 90% of the mentioned areas.

[RIC Airport]

On 10/14/2019 at 8:09 AM, wxdude64 said:

RIC sits in a pretty good cooling spot, they can hit a freeze pretty early some years when others around don't.

Interestingly, RIC reached 37 this morning which is the lowest of the season for all 4 airports. 

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Interestingly, RIC reached 37 this morning which is the lowest of the season for all 4 airports. 

Those in the know know that RIC usually freezes around BWIs date, not DCAs.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Those in the know know that RIC usually freezes around BWIs date, not DCAs.

I may be mistaken, but I feel like that hasn't been the case the last couple years...that Richmond's first freeze was near the same time as DC's.

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

I may be mistaken, but I feel like that hasn't been the case the last couple years...that Richmond's first freeze was near the same time as DC's.

DCA has done better relative to its average the last couple years while there has been more fluctuation at RIC. Actually, RIC has been running a 7-10 days later than average lately. 

[arlwx]

Dewpoints stayed up high enough for the airports to (officially) escape freezing this morning.

DCA 44, BWI 39, IAD 34, RIC 39.

But Manassas hit 30 and many Shenandoah Valley freezing obs.

[arlwx]

GFS is claiming next chance for a freeze may be Halloween morning.

[losetoa6]

33 with frost and icy windshields.

[mattie g]

59 minutes ago, arlwx said:

Dewpoints stayed up high enough for the airports to (officially) escape freezing this morning.

DCA 44, BWI 39, IAD 34, RIC 39.

But Manassas hit 30 and many Shenandoah Valley freezing obs.

None were even close except Dulles.

[George BM]

4 hours ago, arlwx said:

Dewpoints stayed up high enough for the airports to (officially) escape freezing this morning.

DCA 44, BWI 39, IAD 34, RIC 39.

But Manassas hit 30 and many Shenandoah Valley freezing obs.

IAD actually hit 33F.

[WEATHER53]

38 here for low

 

[arlwx]

GFS is claiming cold shots may show up the mornings of 10/31, 1/1, 11/5 and 11/6.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, arlwx said:

GFS is claiming cold shots may show up the mornings of 10/31, 1/1, 11/5 and 11/6.

Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident.

[frd]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident.

On another forum one met claimed the GFS should not even be used.  Stated that by incorporating the GFS into your forecast for your clients it reduces your overall performance and accuracy. I know yesterday I posted about  verification against the Euro, but when I read that comment I was surprised.  Seems the general idea is the GFS  is extremely cold biased, reacts slowly to changes and  when you have time periods such as this where we are transitioning between seasons it does badly.  

[H2O]

On 9/23/2019 at 1:36 PM, H2O said:

My entries for all 4: Never

 

This is based on current fall pattern that says summer will continue forever.

solid call so far