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shaggy

Dorian

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 78.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Surf City,
North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Duck, North
Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Savannah River to Edisto
Beach, South Carolina, and from South Santee River, South Carolina,
to Surf City, North Carolina.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended north of Duck, North Carolina
to the North Carolina/Virginia border.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the
North Carolina/Virginia border northward to Chincoteague,
Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward.

The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet, Florida.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter
Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City NC to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

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And with that, both the parents and in-laws are in Hurricane Warnings. I already know my parents are planning on staying in Shallotte. I need to see what the in-laws are planning in the Porter's Neck area. They're really low, with their back up against a tidal creek off Middle Sound.

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

NAM 3K says hold on to your hats.....this is gonna be overdone but not sure by how much, if the storm is well organized and large it might not be that far off....

18Z-20190903_NAMNSTMA_sfc_gust-56-60-10-100.gif.b3062d6b07c6aa7ad636e41cd7e3b7fd.gif

Not entirely unrealistic I don't think, at least near the coast, if it does in fact manage to hug the coast for a while.

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

NAM 3K says hold on to your hats.....this is gonna be overdone but not sure by how much, if the storm is well organized and large it might not be that far off....

18Z-20190903_NAMNSTMA_sfc_gust-56-60-10-100.gif.b3062d6b07c6aa7ad636e41cd7e3b7fd.gif

MEH..  

If that holds serve.. Well..

I'll be "on the beach" to record it.. 

@downeastnc &

@shaggy

 

Have ya'll been on the great Fishing bite the past couple days? Kings/Spanish/Spots/Blues/SST, & Red Drum are running..

IF this Model comes to pass, It WILL be a *boon* too fish stocks..  (along with other species of fish).. 

Chance to Spawn.. 

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NAM 925 MB winds have 50-90 mph winds 1500-2200 ft up over most of central and eastern NC how well these mix down will determine how bad the winds get.....with Matthew and Irene they mixed down very well.....

NAMMA_925_spd_057.png.ae108048b3287b11271ffd183e9e6624.png

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5 hours ago, NCSU_Pi said:

And with that, both the parents and in-laws are in Hurricane Warnings. I already know my parents are planning on staying in Shallotte. I need to see what the in-laws are planning in the Porter's Neck area. They're really low, with their back up against a tidal creek off Middle Sound.

I'd be more worried about Dorian if Florence hadn't came thru last year. I figured if anything survived Florence, it can handle this one. (in the Shallotte area)

My mom's between OIB and Sunset. Her house backs into a creek that empties into the Intercoastal. She's staying with her sister in Little River that's about 3 miles inland that's got some slight elevation, and doesn't have much trees around. (which means I ain't too worried about wind impacts)

When this thing clears out, I'm heading down to Mom's Fri night/Sat to help with any cleanup. I don't expect there will be too much because she's got oaks on her property that have been there for years, and survived a few Cat 2's (and Florence) without much damage. But I'll bring the chainsaw just in case.

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53 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

I'd be more worried about Dorian if Florence hadn't came thru last year. I figured if anything survived Florence, it can handle this one. (in the Shallotte area)

My mom's between OIB and Sunset. Her house backs into a creek that empties into the Intercoastal. She's staying with her sister in Little River that's about 3 miles inland that's got some slight elevation, and doesn't have much trees around. (which means I ain't too worried about wind impacts)

When this thing clears out, I'm heading down to Mom's Fri night/Sat to help with any cleanup. I don't expect there will be too much because she's got oaks on her property that have been there for years, and survived a few Cat 2's (and Florence) without much damage. But I'll bring the chainsaw just in case.

Yeah, I'm not too worried about them. They're up high enough that not even the Cat 5 storm surge model touches their house. They'll have to deal with power outages and all that, but they'll be fine. They're in good shape, and it's not like they're elderly.

I went down after Florence and we rode around Ash and the areas around the Waccamaw. It just became a giant swamp. And the people that live there, for the most part, lacked the means to deal with something like that. It was just tragic.

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

NAM 925 MB winds have 50-90 mph winds 1500-2200 ft up over most of central and eastern NC how well these mix down will determine how bad the winds get.....with Matthew and Irene they mixed down very well.....

NAMMA_925_spd_057.png.ae108048b3287b11271ffd183e9e6624.png

Matthew and Irene , I was fishing on our local piers.. AND have video to prove it, (being there)..    MEH.. 

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45 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said:

Yeah, I'm not too worried about them. They're up high enough that not even the Cat 5 storm surge model touches their house. They'll have to deal with power outages and all that, but they'll be fine. They're in good shape, and it's not like they're elderly.

I went down after Florence and we rode around Ash and the areas around the Waccamaw. It just became a giant swamp. And the people that live there, for the most part, lacked the means to deal with something like that. It was just tragic.

Ugh. Well I hope they've learned they're lesson since then..

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Wow that 00Z Euro run was nasty for NC....direct landfall over Emerald Isle as a solid Cat 2.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019090400_61_480_149.thumb.png.8a2057b1acd401564814138d6bb75aec.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019090400_63_480_379.thumb.png.461dd73900dff3048a0727a4b6c220e3.png

The 00z ENS also shifted closer to the coast. Image courtesy of weathernerds.org.  (free site btw)

tracks 00z.png

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6Z Euro back to just offshore its moves more than the other models, the Ukie, Icon, Nam's all agree with the 00Z Euro track...that's the one that will be the worst for NC so we will see if they trend east today any...

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38 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

6Z Euro back to just offshore its moves more than the other models, the Ukie, Icon, Nam's all agree with the 00Z Euro track...that's the one that will be the worst for NC so we will see if they trend east today any...

Interesting, the 6z GFS Ensemble had a quite significant shift west and has a landfall across most of extreme eastern NC now.  

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9 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Ugh. Well I hope they've learned they're lesson since then..

When you live in a dirt floor shack near the river, you don't exactly have a lot of options.

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The 3km NAM track through inland NC is rough for a lot of central and eastern NC.....if  that ends up being right and the storm can stay organized and a strong Cat 2 this might be one of the worse "wind" hits NC has taken over a large area since Fran, most models already really want to put gust well into strong TS territory all the way to the Triangle...the 3k NAM has hurricane gust to the Triangle and would be lights out for NC from the Triad to the coast....

us_model-en-087-0_modusahd_2019090406_55_480_211.thumb.png.86da266048c4d2c89259f2d72f2622bf.png

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20 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The 3km NAM track through inland NC is rough for a lot of central and eastern NC.....if  that ends up being right and the storm can stay organized and a strong Cat 2 this might be one of the worse "wind" hits NC has taken over a large area since Fran, most models already really want to put gust well into strong TS territory all the way to the Triangle...the 3k NAM has hurricane gust to the Triangle and would be lights out for NC from the Triad to the coast....

us_model-en-087-0_modusahd_2019090406_55_480_211.thumb.png.86da266048c4d2c89259f2d72f2622bf.png

That's two runs now

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Whatever model(s) wunderground uses calls for a lull on Harkers Island around 7am Friday. That’s got to be the eye, and is around the same time and place the latest NHC forecast places Dorian. Found it interesting, never seen that on this app. 

 

AFCAB110-8E6D-4D21-85D9-C1715FE048D4.png

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Hey guys help me out my geography sucks where exactly is the TRIANGLE or where does it go from ? Thanks

 

Durham, Raleigh, Chapel Hill.  Roughly 20 mile sides I suppose.

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Hey guys help me out my geography sucks where exactly is the TRIANGLE or where does it go from ? Thanks

 

the triangle is the Raleigh, Durham, chapel hill, apex area. Wake, Durham, Orange counties. and it is in central north Carolina 

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36 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The 3km NAM track through inland NC is rough for a lot of central and eastern NC.....if  that ends up being right and the storm can stay organized and a strong Cat 2 this might be one of the worse "wind" hits NC has taken over a large area since Fran, most models already really want to put gust well into strong TS territory all the way to the Triangle...the 3k NAM has hurricane gust to the Triangle and would be lights out for NC from the Triad to the coast....

us_model-en-087-0_modusahd_2019090406_55_480_211.thumb.png.86da266048c4d2c89259f2d72f2622bf.png

The NAM 3km overdoes the intensity with Hurricanes, we all know that... but it has a pretty good record on the tracks of Low Pressure systems.  With that being said, it has been consistently showing a more westward track. The center is actually west of Wilmington on the 12z run when it comes on shore. That would definitely increase the impacts to all of Eastern NC especially since the stronger winds are east of the center. The OBX would get spanked on this track.   

image.png

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I'd say the HRRR is doing very well on this since late Sundays runs,moving this NW. then almost due north and well of the coast so far.

That HWRF or whatever you call it looks horrible,slamming this into central Florida for almost 3 days.Pitiful just pitiful.

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The 3k NAM is a bit overdone for inland locations I think. It is overamped and I think a track that far inland is an outlier. Right now, I think the 60-70 mph gusts will be contained to the US 17 corridor and eastward for NC. If anyone sees hurricane gusts, I think it's going to be directly along the coast. The ECMWF may have the track right, but those gusts maps have been 10-20% higher than verification for the majority of areas during recent storms the past couple of years.

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