wxmanmitch Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Anything less than 100" is a ratter in my books. The ratter of all ratters in these parts was without a doubt '15-'16. I'll gladly take another '11-'12 any day over that year. Last winter wasn't bad with ~150", but I would've happily swapped November for December. Novie was crazy, December stunk, January after the first week was okay, February and March meh at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2019 Author Share Posted October 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: After last years misses the long rangers will definitely tamper their expectations, only natural to be conservative. Expect it Doesn't matter to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 What was the ratter winter where everyone wanted to set futility records, then came along Spring snow and ruined it? 15-16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I always release on Nov 12. somebody better warn your wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 8 hours ago, weathafella said: But statistically it snows as much as it does in December. But for March/April snows to save a season it has to be 1955-56, 1957-58 1959-60, 1996-97 although 1957-58 had a great February. 1977-78 was backloaded as many of f the great ones are. My preference is front loaded but I don’t have the keys to control that so I take what I get. A sub par 1959-60 turned in a dime with one of the 20th century’s great blizzards. In NNJ where tamarack and I grew up, snow stayed on the ground all month-it was cold. March 1956 thru February 1961 in NNJ was my all-time tops for big snowstorms. Even the far snowier Fort Kent couldn't touch it for blockbusters. And it's natural for March to be more of a winter month than spring the farther north one lives. We carry continuous snow cover into April about 60% of snow seasons, and 20"+ on April 1 in about 1/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 1) that was one of my favorite surprise snow events in Jan 97. Went to bed seeing a shit streak on radar racing up from Kentucky. Woke up to S+ and like 6” of fluff. Was 9” when I went towards Brockton. This was in Hyde Park at the time. 2) I use the 1SD rule although never calculated it. So anything below 25” I felt was a ratter imo. Sounds like we mostly agree. 3) I think I’d take a 2-3’ event if that meant 1-3” scrape here and there. The big ones won’t be around forever. Cherish them when you get them....like Bill and Brady. . They won’t be around forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Funny about 96-97. We didn’t really do well on coast until 3/31, but just enough to keep you interested. We had an event prior to T day south of Boston. Round 1 in December was actually a positive bust for us. Wetlbulbing down to get TSSN paste and close to 5-7” of it. That was supposed to be down the drain. Part 2 just missed by miles. We mixed in Hyde Park, but east winds were a killer. Seeing Cantore orgasm to TSSN live was a crusher. I could not believe it. What a crush job there, and crushed my soul back east lol. The snow NYE was cool. A nice touch. Jan fluff was already mentioned, but it was tough into March. We did have some bouts of snow in March and it was quite the chilly month. Then 3/31 came and forever changed my outlook on blizzards. Still number 1 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I absolutely hate it. Seeing all that snow.. knowing it’s gone within a day or 3. No pack . Have it fall during low sun angle season when even a 42 degree high won’t dent it. I love it. Usually some good events too. Plus roads are clean quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Funny about 96-97. We didn’t really do well on coast until 3/31, but just enough to keep you interested. We had an event prior to T day south of Boston. Round 1 in December was actually a positive bust for us. Wetlbulbing down to get TSSN paste and close to 5-7” of it. That was supposed to be down the drain. Part 2 just missed by miles. We mixed in Hyde Park, but east winds were a killer. Seeing Cantore orgasm to TSSN live was a crusher. I could not believe it. What a crush job there, and crushed my soul back east lol. The snow NYE was cool. A nice touch. Jan fluff was already mentioned, but it was tough into March. We did have some bouts of snow in March and it was quite the chilly month. Then 3/31 came and forever changed my outlook on blizzards. Still number 1 for me. Yeah '96-'97 was active. Lot of teases and some ok events but for those who missed the 2nd December storm, it was mostly rough times until March. SE MA did get the Jan '97 event but they got mostly rain in the advisory snow to ice event inland around Vday '97. That was probably our biggest ice storm between 1992 and 2008 in central MA...pretty solid event. They had nothing though by the time you were at 495. Pretty sharp cutoff on the icing. Left for Sunday River with my cousin and uncle the very next morning...there was like 2-3" of snow OTG with a pretty thick layer of ice on top of it with the ice covered trees absolutely glistening in the sun....by the time we were around Littleton to Westfield to Lowell on 495 on the way up, it was bare ground with no sign of ice anywhere. Stayed that way until we got to Maine and got west of 95...basically zippo in PWM and then Gray Maine had like a foot or more of snow and then by the time we got to north side of Sebago it was well over 3 feet. Couldn't believe the tight gradient in snow pack there. Lol. We had another event in late January '97 that was a bust too. Was supposed to be like 4-7" inland and then maybe some sleet/ZR before flipping back to snow. I woke up at 3am overnight after it had started and saw we already had 3" and it was snowing heavily...felt great about it. Woke up at 7am and it was pouring rain and we had about 1.5" of mush left. Never changed back to snow except a couple flurries. I never really knew what happened until a few years later when I bothered to look at reanalysis and saw that we got swamped by a pretty potent primary in NY state. Guess it was supposed to be more secondary development or better CAD. Still seemed like an odd forecast given the reanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I love it. Usually some good events too. Plus roads are clean quickly. I want snowy and dangerous roads. Not wet salted blacktop gleaming into my eyes as you go thru 3 bottles of washer fluid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I want snowy and dangerous roads. Not wet salted blacktop gleaming into my eyes as you go thru 3 bottles of washer fluid Ha the old blindingly bright sun reflecting off the wet pavement and fresh snow on the sides of the road. A new bottle of washer fluid daily, yup we all know that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I want snowy and dangerous roads. Not wet salted blacktop gleaming into my eyes as you go thru 3 bottles of washer fluid Usually it dries out in the travel areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Usually it dries out in the travel areas. Even up here the roads are usually clear and dry after a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2019 Author Share Posted October 27, 2019 5 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: somebody better warn your wife. She knows, by this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I want snowy and dangerous roads. Not wet salted blacktop gleaming into my eyes as you go thru 3 bottles of washer fluid winter in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I want snowy and dangerous roads. Not wet salted blacktop gleaming into my eyes as you go thru 3 bottles of washer fluid They are stopping salt use up in the Lake George (Adirondacks) area due to runoff into the lake. Just sand this winter, they put up road signs that just say Ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: She knows, by this point.. I was referring to a different kind of release Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2019 Author Share Posted October 27, 2019 5 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: I was referring to a different kind of release I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2019 Author Share Posted October 27, 2019 Seen @Isotherm lurking of late.....tis the season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seen @Isotherm lurking of late.....tis the season. Just wondering what his thoughts are for the upcoming season as well......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 48 minutes ago, 512high said: Just wondering what his thoughts are for the upcoming season as well......... Within a week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Pretty wintry looking vets day weekend especially 11/8-9. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 I'll take this potential step down process anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 We've got some all-time record cold coming in this week. It's amazing to think that it was 77F on October 30th in 2016. Ski season looks pretty promising here, although I do expect November to see less extreme cold in a relative sense, since it can be below 0 in November. Fairly strong correlation in Albuquerque between coldest low and total lows of 32F or less from Oct-May. A (verified) low of 19 would imply around 120 nights of lows 32F or less from Oct-May, even adjusting warmer for the heat island/background warming (raw formula implies about ~130 lows of 32F or less if we hit 19F in October). We'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 This is pretty similar to what I had. I did go higher in Northern California and some spots in the Southern Plains. Mainly for CA because a big -SOI in September is a strong wet signal for North California, and the SOI was -13 in September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Newest Cansips and CFS. No obvious red flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2019 Author Share Posted November 1, 2019 That looks favorable to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 I feel like it's been the same look since 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like it's been the same look since 2014. Yeah that cansips look is pretty similar to last few winters. The cfs look is different more of a classic -nao pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2019 Author Share Posted November 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah that cansips look is pretty similar to last few winters. The cfs look is different more of a classic -nao pattern That looks like a neutral to even a modestly neg NAO to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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