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40/70 Benchmark

Winter 2019-2020 Discussion

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10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just finishing brushing the egg off of my face from last season in time to begin parsing through data for the coming season.

Early ENSO thoughts are nothing surprising.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/08/first-look-at-enso-for-winter-2019-2020.html

I’m not sure i get what you mean by getting the egg off your face... like, you’re hatching because last season was bad?

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4 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

I’m not sure i get what you mean by getting the egg off your face... like, you’re hatching because last season was bad?

I believe what he saying His call from last year wasn’t his best and he is going to redeem himself

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2 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

I believe what he saying His call from last year wasn’t his best and he is going to redeem himself

I just mean that it didn't work out...I was confident, but I ended up with egg on my face because it was wrong....its an expression.

 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just mean that it didn't work out...I was confident, but I ended up with egg on my face because it was wrong....its an expression.

 

Ray nice to see you back starting to "dig" a bit as we go forward, just SAY it will be better for snow lovers this coming season even if its not true!(lol) soooo done with humidity , but the days are getting shorter, enjoy the rest of summer, look forward to your updates

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1 minute ago, 512high said:

Ray nice to see you back starting to "dig" a bit as we go forward, just SAY it will be better for snow lovers this coming season even if its not true!(lol) soooo done with humidity , but the days are getting shorter, enjoy the rest of summer, look forward to your updates

Thanks, man....yea, we'll see. I don't see anything egregiously bad for next year, but as we saw last season, that does not guarantee anything. Hopefully we edge back into el nino territory.

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wonder what the following winters where, after a summer of +qbo, -epo, -ao/-nao. 

I think this is the type of approach that many like to take, however, I'm beginning to think this type of approach doesn't have as much merit as we would think. There are too many inter/intra-seasonal variables and influences which happen or can happen which are probably not correlated very well with the transition from the northern hemisphere summer to the northern hemisphere winter. I think one such example/phenomena is poleward propagating planetary waves...something like this can really escalate changes within the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere...heck it can yield changes which were not really foreseen. 

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17 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I think this is the type of approach that many like to take, however, I'm beginning to think this type of approach doesn't have as much merit as we would think. There are too many inter/intra-seasonal variables and influences which happen or can happen which are probably not correlated very well with the transition from the northern hemisphere summer to the northern hemisphere winter. I think one such example/phenomena is poleward propagating planetary waves...something like this can really escalate changes within the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere...heck it can yield changes which were not really foreseen. 

No correlation is that simple, of course. But we use what we can and what we have to make best educated ‘guesses’ on what may happen. What else do you do for season forecasting....just say “anything can happen” and call it complete?

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18 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I think this is the type of approach that many like to take, however, I'm beginning to think this type of approach doesn't have as much merit as we would think. There are too many inter/intra-seasonal variables and influences which happen or can happen which are probably not correlated very well with the transition from the northern hemisphere summer to the northern hemisphere winter. I think one such example/phenomena is poleward propagating planetary waves...something like this can really escalate changes within the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere...heck it can yield changes which were not really foreseen. 

I completely agree. Great post!

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Seems like we're favorites for either warm-neutral or weak Niño. Obviously things can change but the subsurface doesn't look overly impressive and the model forecasts seem to agree. 

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like we're favorites for either warm-neutral or weak Niño. Obviously things can change but the subsurface doesn't look overly impressive and the model forecasts seem to agree. 

It doesn't seem like ENSO is going to be much of a contributor in the shaping of the pattern this winter. I would think we are closer to warm-neutral. Although I'm interested to see how that tongue of colder waters pushing east off of South America progresses moving forward. There also looks to be a pretty impressive easterly trade wind burst in the coming days originating around the dateline. 

This is something which could obviously change extremely quickly as we move towards the cooler season, but SSTA's across the NPAC and around Greenland are very, very warm. If that were to persist deep into the fall that could play a major factor in how the pattern evolves moving through the fall. But the theme through this summer (with regards to the configuration across east Russia into the PAC) has been for rather anomalous ridging at times into Alaska...if that holds through the fall that could yield some decent potential early on in the winter for us. 

 

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9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like we're favorites for either warm-neutral or weak Niño. Obviously things can change but the subsurface doesn't look overly impressive and the model forecasts seem to agree. 

Agree....should be either warm-neutral or weak el nino. If it were to be the latter, then find it hard to believe that we would have two consecutively that behaved so erratically, but I found alot hard to believe last year that I shouldn't have in hindsight. :lol:

I think odds of nino are less than 50/50 atm.

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8 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

It doesn't seem like ENSO is going to be much of a contributor in the shaping of the pattern this winter. I would think we are closer to warm-neutral. Although I'm interested to see how that tongue of colder waters pushing east off of South America progresses moving forward. There also looks to be a pretty impressive easterly trade wind burst in the coming days originating around the dateline. 

This is something which could obviously change extremely quickly as we move towards the cooler season, but SSTA's across the NPAC and around Greenland are very, very warm. If that were to persist deep into the fall that could play a major factor in how the pattern evolves moving through the fall. But the theme through this summer (with regards to the configuration across east Russia into the PAC) has been for rather anomalous ridging at times into Alaska...if that holds through the fall that could yield some decent potential early on in the winter for us. 

 

I'd love to get a snowy December for once.

Should have some time to really dig into things this fall, as I'll be out of work for awhile after my daughter is born.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd love to get a snowy December for once.

Should have some time to really dig into things this fall, as I'll be out of work for awhile after my daughter is born.

First I saw this. Congrats on the la nina.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks, Brian...mother nature owes me an el nino, so hopefully the atmosphere can deliver it haha

congrats....

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ETA Novie 2nd, but I have a hunch that we will be trick or treating in the delivery room.

Well congratulations to you both !!!

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd love to get a snowy December for once.

Should have some time to really dig into things this fall, as I'll be out of work for awhile after my daughter is born.

2017 was decently snowy...though not excessive. But we haven't had a snowy Niño December since 2009. 

Were kind of due for one even though they are typically not favored. We've gone 3 horrendous Niño Decembers in a row since '09....maybe the excessive blocking we've seen recently will be able to manifest itself early this winter. That's typically a requirement for a snowy Niño December. In La Niña, we often can get away with less blocking in December. Not in El Niño. 

Of course, it could be warm neutral too. We'd be less reliant on blocking if it was but we'd still want to see it. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

2017 was decently snowy...though not excessive. But we haven't had a snowy Niño December since 2009. 

Were kind of due for one even though they are typically not favored. We've gone 3 horrendous Niño Decembers in a row since '09....maybe the excessive blocking we've seen recently will be able to manifest itself early this winter. That's typically a requirement for a snowy Niño December. In La Niña, we often can get away with less blocking in December. Not in El Niño. 

Of course, it could be warm neutral too. We'd be less reliant on blocking if it was but we'd still want to see it. 

There was no doubt that the huge blocking that was pushed back all winter would manfest itself in April and stick around all summer.

Uncanny.

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11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd love to get a snowy December for once.

Should have some time to really dig into things this fall, as I'll be out of work for awhile after my daughter is born.

I'm looking forward to reading your information. The way you communicate your thoughts and the knowledge you present is highly inspiring. Your way with words makes the reads very easy and enjoyable. 

It would be great to have a snowy December for a change...seems like its been a while. 

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22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like we're favorites for either warm-neutral or weak Niño. Obviously things can change but the subsurface doesn't look overly impressive and the model forecasts seem to agree. 

Maine historically does best for snow (using CAR, PWM and Farmington numbers) with weak ENSO, either side of neutral.  Looks like we may be in that general vicinity this coming winter, unless there's a major change.

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It’s hard to grasp how ENSO effects the pattern anymore since the whole Pacific is AN. Seems to most common element lately has been ridging near AK, but that hasn’t always helped us (sorry Steve).

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s hard to grasp how ENSO effects the pattern anymore since the whole Pacific is AN. Seems to most common element lately has been ridging near AK, but that hasn’t always helped us (sorry Steve).

I've been really starting to wonder if ENSO is AS BIG of a contributor as we have once thought...at least when we aren't dealing with a moderate-to-strong event. When you really dig into things and look at each ENSO event season-by-season I don't think there is as strong of a correlation as we may think. It is tough to say though b/c it really depends on what the driving force will be...maybe it's ENSO, maybe it's strength/position of tropical forcing (although this may tie into ENSO?), perhaps its the interactions between the lower strat. and upper trop., maybe MT or AAM.

The last few years I think have been largely dictated by how the stratosphere has evolved and the lagged response by the troposphere...and that is another major wrench too is the whole lag factor as some responses we really don't notice until well after the initial event (whatever that may be) has occurred. 

One thing I'm really interested in (although having difficulty figuring out sources to analyze this information) is the heat budget and transport of energy from the equator to the Pole...I guess this can be done by assessing planetary/Rossby waves but my knowledge isn't strong enough to probably derive any conclusions or ideas just from this alone. 

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7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s hard to grasp how ENSO effects the pattern anymore since the whole Pacific is AN. Seems to most common element lately has been ridging near AK, but that hasn’t always helped us (sorry Steve).

I completely agree with this bold section... 

I started ranting about this very same 'ENSO muting effect of AN sea and air' ( ... related to GW or not...) years ago actually. 

To paraphrase/re-iterate .. the recent record breaking El Nino ( 4 years back at this point ...) precipitated comparatively weak Global impacts.  Known correlations were startlingly pallid in some cases, ... moderate impact at most in others.  There were papers written and submitted that described this - though I can't dig them up from here at the moment.

This will never sink in apparently ... P.H.D.'s blankly look back and blink twice when you tell them this. 

GRADIENT

without it... it's all meaningless. 

We can't just say SST are above normal in some scalar sense of it, and assume shit.  Means nothing when there's no SINK for the heat source... If everything is warm... there is no flow of thermal energy mechanics ... nothing is responding ... there's no momentum to force diddly squat - so seasonal forecasts for this or that based upon X ENSO ?  useless... unless that relative effectiveness can be calculated -

Works the same way in the other direction too of course.  If every thing is cold... etc...  Although, when everything is cold, it apparently takes less differentiation in warmth to get the gears turning... but the underlying physical requirement of gradient is still incontrovertibly necessary in either circumstance.  

I mean god bless everyone's efforts... but despite how many statistical correlations one uses that are linearly based upon  [ X-warm happened in 1955 so Y-cold response ] type circuitry...? I'm just saying the above a different way but that's unfortunately too crude and coarse of an approach ... Won't work... Because the ENSO's correlations of many decades ago... are supplanted by the changing climate - new correlations that are relative to warming world?  Where are they?  Others on here have mentioned that "they" use some sort of sliding comparative scale ..but I don't see any evidence of that reading papers and NCEP extracts  ...

You know... it kind of backs us into another assumption I've been toying with... This is one of those rare circumstances where the climate might actually be used to modulate determinism ...Intuitively I should say, ...it's too immensely complex to be discrete.  If the whole atmosphere is warmer,  +1 SSTs don't mean the same thing as +1 SST happening when the whole atmosphere is cooler, like the middle of last century ...or 300 years ago ...or whenever whence one looks back in time.  

This isn't complicated... yet from NCEP to the enthusiasts of the anonymous Earth sciences -related social mediasphere... everyone seems to auto-pull their strings based upon whether the ENSO is warm or cool, period.  And that's almost meaningless.  gradient gradient gradient. 

Here's a prediction for winter:   The increasing propensity for the -AO phase state will increase the polar --> equitorial exertion ... while the equator ( just like last year ...the year before...and has been evidences as steadily increasing since the early 2000s) will pushes back ... usually between 40 N and the rough latitudes of the arctic circle.  Gradient saturation (different gradient than ocean-atmospheric ) takes place at those regions... not from ENSO, which is absorbed and castrated by the fact that it's back-of-balls all over S of 40 N now.   We'll have a somewhat amplified +PNAP pattern in the means, but one that is conveyed by higher than normal/at times geopotential wind saturation.  ... Like, 110 kts at 500 mb in the ambiance with no S/W within thousands of KM.. That kind of velocity poison. 

This will mean that S/W have to be particularly potent to force cyclogenesis... so the ones that have the ability to do so will by virtue of the speed over all be moving fast as mean storm behavior ( I just know we're going to get a slow moving cut-off monster ... even though this is clad).  Anyway, they don't stick around,...so their impacts are relatively limited.  There may be cold incursions due to said -AO influence... but I suspect they roll-out quickly too whenever there is minimal excuse of continental chinook/Pac swathing.   Everything else comes down to intra-weekly peregrinations.  I expect a steady diet of -EPOs... But, the over arching ( sort of ) concern for big winter enthusiasts is the same as last year...  Fast global circulation speeds means that there is an intrinsic negative wave interference that is exerting from large to smaller scales.   When the flow is fast everywhere, S/W mechanical budget suffers ... because most S/W velocity maxes are in the 70 to 110 kt range... well, if the winds are already humming in that range prior to the arrive of the wave ... the wave gets absorbed... Basic wave -mechanical argument.  Worked out beautifully as a predictor last year... I remember specifically warning people last autumn that this speed shearing thing is a problem ...  

 

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Probably has some merit, but like everything else, its overstated and not always that simple. Last season, that was correct.....other years, it wasn't as much of an issue. Maybe it is a more prominent issue moving forward as climo evolves, but we have seen seasons in the not so distant past become really blocking prone.

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We have always had ENSO events that have deviated from the norm...hell, just 5 years ago we had a weak el nino behave pretty much as expected.

I think the gradient saturation may become a more prevalent issue, but its difficult to say just how prominent and whether other factors could countermand its influence.

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