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Dr. Dews

August 2019 Discussion

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Pretty decent signal for some EML advection next week. Also talking about a 40-50 kt MLJ traversing the region. Let's see if we can muster something up 

How many tornadoes in CT???? …..asking for a friend.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

3-6

lolis to 10 

Good idea for you to start low. You can always adjust upwards once the supercells begin to roll across CT...… 

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1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Good idea for you to start low. You can always adjust upwards once the supercells begin to roll across CT...… 

Exactly. 

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6 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

12z GFS def mutes the cool down next week and torches again D8 onwards, wouldn't shock me to see it play out like that tbh 

Music to DIT's ears.

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30 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

12z GFS def mutes the cool down next week and torches again D8 onwards, wouldn't shock me to see it play out like that tbh 

Yeeeeah... I'm not so sure.  I realize you say, "...wouldn't shock me" in jest and I get what you mean... but, the GFS has been yo-yooing ridge vs trough domination all summer long... Really been unusable along the 45th parallel in particular ...  Purely for my own observations, it seems it has been more accurate within the bowls of the subtropics, or safely above the westerly mean jet ( however nebular/summer defined).  Anything along that ~ midriff latitude around the girdle of the hemisphere ...it's seems it has been more variant at time range between D5 and 10...  I mean ( haha ) what are we caring.... "day 5 +"?  ... just sayn'

I kind of give the model a pass on that seasonal behavior though?   Not that you asked... a little soap-boxing: 

I really think the hemisphere is reeling ... well...the model is, between -AO and a summer that is, even if only in decimal equavalence, getting a bit of a positive feed-back/synergy from GW... It's almost impossible to really separate these latter ....by definition of synergy, the gestalt seems to be a greater quantity than the sum of the individual factors that create it - emergent properties of complex systems ... they'll getcha every time.  Anyway, with the -AO pervasive and predominate over the higher latitude N. Hemisphere ...that's putting an unusual sort of inimicable strain on the performs of the "Global Forecast System" - I just suspect this is beyond the state of the art of the technology frankly...  

Anyway, we'll see how it fairs later in the fall...  I do wonder though if it still has a progressive bias - in which case, it would still be too shallow with troughs in the winter... and too shallow with ridges in the summer if you can see how that be the case - 

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30 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

12z GFS def mutes the cool down next week and torches again D8 onwards, wouldn't shock me to see it play out like that tbh 

The fact the GFS sniffed it out first is surprising. But the idea that it’s happening isn’t . We coming 

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EPS was pretty chilly. It's a week out so yeah...can't really be surprised by anything.

Sniff this :weenie:

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not true. A lot of those I stay at or below freezing with zr and as it gets past my latitude I drop back into the 20’s. I can name numerous storms where that’s happened . That’s if it’s a Cape tracker. If it tracks over Ginx then yeah.. I’ll get to near 40 easily 

Yea I torch while you are below freezing all the time.  

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21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeeeeah... I'm not so sure.  I realize you say, "...wouldn't shock me" in jest and I get what you mean... but, the GFS has been yo-yooing ridge vs trough domination all summer long... Really been unusable along the 45th parallel in particular ...  Purely for my own observations, it seems it has been more accurate within the bowls of the subtropics, or safely above the westerly mean jet ( however nebular/summer defined).  Anything along that ~ midriff latitude around the girdle of the hemisphere ...it's seems it has been more variant at time range between D5 and 10...  I mean ( haha ) what are we caring.... "day 5 +"?  ... just sayn'

Successive runs causing whiplash.  I've especially noticed it on the 12z versions - H8s 19-20C on Day 8 one afternoon, 7-8C the next.  (And we're only about 20 miles south of the 45th.)

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19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea I torch while you are below freezing all the time.  

Some of those early season events or ones with a retreating high aren’t  good for him. That’s what Will is referring to. His latitude will hurt in that.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of those early season events or ones with a retreating high aren’t  good for him. That’s what Will is referring to. His latitude will hurt in that.

I’ll always  change to ice .Never all snow. That’s 100% iron clad. But if it’s cape tracker it generally stays 32

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2 hours ago, kdxken said:

We should put together a golf Meetup before the snow flies. The ranch perhaps? Central to a lot of folks.

Great track. Put the request in the golf thread. 

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40 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Bodes well for winter. 

GFS or the canal tracks? :lol:

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of those early season events or ones with a retreating high aren’t  good for him. That’s what Will is referring to. His latitude will hurt in that.

Kevin was kind of spinning it too assuming I meant it had to be a cape tracker. I never even mentioned that. I just said, IJD is sneaky good in those CAD events to see when it's about to collapse for Kevin. Frequently he will go within an hour of IJD spiking 38 to 40. 

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29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro is still a nice cool down. GEFS aren’t buying the op either.

gotta enjoy whatever little scraps of cold you can get

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8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

gotta enjoy whatever little scraps of cold you can get

Slightly below normal is the new much below. Mabye EWR can go another December without going below freezing?

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Slightly below normal is the new much below. Mabye EWR can go another December without going below freezing?

don't say things like that unless you know they will happen

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13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

don't say things like that unless you know they will happen

If I lived down there I’d have a huge grove of moso.

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Whew is it humid out there in the SWly flow warm sector.

71/66... after so many low dew days this month, an evening with Td's creeping above 65F as the temp tries to drop feels tropical. 

You can see the boundary has lifted just north of Montreal, with decent SSW flow advecting the moist air up through the NNE mtns.

SE of the mountains hanging on to that drier air from the Maine coastal plain down to the Mass Pike.  ORH still bouncing around at 59-61 dews.

 

 

dewp.ne-large.png

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Whew is it humid out there in the SWly flow warm sector.

71/66... after so many low dew days this month, an evening with Td's creeping above 65F as the temp tries to drop feels tropical. 

You can see the boundary has lifted just north of Montreal, with decent SSW flow advecting the moist air up through the NNE mtns.

SE of the mountains hanging on to that drier air from the Maine coastal plain down to the Mass Pike.  ORH still bouncing around at 59-61 dews.

 

 

dewp.ne-large.png

ORH dews notoriously too low. ASOS documented issues 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ORH dews notoriously too low. ASOS documented issues 

Documented?  It doesn't look out of place this evening if you look at the graphic posted.

ORH just shot up to 65F at 9pm and it was in-line with other obs from FIT, AFN, etc that were also in the upper 50s at times late this afternoon into early evening.

Even torchy CEF only has a dew of 61F at 9pm.  It was definitely a bit drier down there than up this way.

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