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USCAPEWEATHERAF

Hyrbid Low Pressure center to impact Southeastern Coastal New England

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Latest models are showing the potential for a strong surface low to develop along a weak cold front as it sits stationary off the Mid-Atlantic States early this upcoming work week.  Winds could gust near 50mph at times especially over the Cape and Islands.  Now there is a small window for something a bit more potent because the ocean is warm in this area, we could see potential tropical development.  We will have to see.  Stay tuned and vigilant.

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4 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Yes . . . James' delusional imagination.

He's just testing our appetite for his sequel to "Dawn Awakening." 

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1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

I don't see anything on model.. am I missing something?

This but it will be absorbed and not amount to anything 

94L_tracks_latest.png

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I was talking about the heightened risk for tornadoes/damaging winds for last night and this morning across SE MA and RI as a low-pressure center moved northeastward through the area causing the tornado warnings last night across my area.  We actually received a lot of wind damage in my town.  Winds gusted over 70mph according to radar scans, not sure officially what they will go with.  This morning we have another low-pressure center moving our direction with severe warned cells over the coastal waters, causing potential water spouts.  They will likely impact my area within the next two hours.  The lightning was amazing.  Also, what is the brown layer of something when the winds start howling and the rain is coming in horizontally?  Is that crap from the trees?  The pollen and what not?  Check out my latest posts on Twitter at 89nich, you will see the videos I posted, I also did a live shot during the peak lightning.  I will do another video of potential damage.

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24 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I was talking about the heightened risk for tornadoes/damaging winds for last night and this morning across SE MA and RI as a low-pressure center moved northeastward through the area causing the tornado warnings last night across my area.  We actually received a lot of wind damage in my town.  Winds gusted over 70mph according to radar scans, not sure officially what they will go with.  This morning we have another low-pressure center moving our direction with severe warned cells over the coastal waters, causing potential water spouts.  They will likely impact my area within the next two hours.  The lightning was amazing.  Also, what is the brown layer of something when the winds start howling and the rain is coming in horizontally?  Is that crap from the trees?  The pollen and what not?  Check out my latest posts on Twitter at 89nich, you will see the videos I posted, I also did a live shot during the peak lightning.  I will do another video of potential damage.

crazy weather on the cape..   I think the tittle should not be hybrid low then.. I don't think this is hybrid.. just a front with a few waves on it.. met can clarify

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

James James James !!

Pretty sure he took a nap over the last 2 hours after tracking this tropical flatulence all night.

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What an experience this afternoon, actually from 11:30 am to 1:00 pm we witnessed the craziest hour and a half of Cape Cod weather you will ever experience.  A legit confirmed tornado ripped through the area, with 90 mph winds and a dangerous rain wrapped tornado.  I think some areas will be confirmed at least EF-2 damage.  Maybe I know crazy EF-3 damage as an entire roof was peeled off in Yarmouth Port, MA.

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8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

What an experience this afternoon, actually from 11:30 am to 1:00 pm we witnessed the craziest hour and a half of Cape Cod weather you will ever experience.  A legit confirmed tornado ripped through the area, with 90 mph winds and a dangerous rain wrapped tornado.  I think some areas will be confirmed at least EF-2 damage.  Maybe I know crazy EF-3 damage as an entire roof was peeled off in Yarmouth Port, MA.

glad you're alright! 

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5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

What an experience this afternoon, actually from 11:30 am to 1:00 pm we witnessed the craziest hour and a half of Cape Cod weather you will ever experience.  A legit confirmed tornado ripped through the area, with 90 mph winds and a dangerous rain wrapped tornado.  I think some areas will be confirmed at least EF-2 damage.  Maybe I know crazy EF-3 damage as an entire roof was peeled off in Yarmouth Port, MA.

Using our patented JDF (James Deflation Factor), we anticipate NWS survey findings in the EF0-EF1 range.

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

glad you're alright! 

thanks Paul, we were following this complex of storms since Long Island, I mean wind shear was so high over the area I knew something bad was coming.  And we only needed some instability, and we got it when the winds veered to the south.

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

thanks Paul, we were following this complex of storms since Long Island, I mean wind shear was so high over the area I knew something bad was coming.  And we only needed some instability, and we got it when the winds veered to the south.

yup great combo of 0-3km CAPE/wind shear

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

yup great combo of 0-3km CAPE/wind shear

Have you ever seen such tremendous shear in an event like this?  I mean every level shear was extreme.

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5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Have you ever seen such tremendous shear in an event like this?  I mean every level shear was extreme.

I don't think some of the shear parameters were  anything unprecedented...the ULJ though is quite strong for this time of year...but it was just a right combination of llvl instability and the strong low-level wind shear. Everything just came together. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think some of the shear parameters were  anything unprecedented...the ULJ though is quite strong for this time of year...but it was just a right combination of llvl instability and the strong low-level wind shear. Everything just came together. 

LCL < 1000 m = good, 50 knots at 850 = good, effective shear ~ 60 knots = good, but what really pops out to me was 0-3 km shear approaching 60 knots. That gives you a lot of latitude for bowing segments and surges of wind to spin up brief tornadoes. It's quite possible that we had two quick ones on the Cape.

I'm guessing the local thermodynamic environment was slightly better than what the 12z CHH sounding showed.

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