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Typhoon Tip

July pattern(s) and discussion

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13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its outdoors and at a venue i have been before, Just need to work in some waters into the equation but i usually have my drinks with water anyways.

We attended an outdoor wedding on July 3, 2002, which had the highest mean temp I've recorded at my place since moving there in May 1998.  The wedding was early afternoon in South Gardiner at elevation 30' asl, totally in the sun and without the slightest breeze.  Everyone survived, but it must've been a near thing.

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The GFS 2m temps have been improved from last year. I mean it was trying to lop 20C onto the 850s last year to produce 110F 2m temps. Of course dews ended up overperforming as well which limits your heating potential. So 100s really didn't have much of a chance.. 22-23C with W flow and good mixing would get it done though barring 75-80F dews. It's all kinda moot except for the weenieness that is actually the century mark. If we were a celcius country we probably wouldn't oooh and ahhh until the temp hit the elusive 40C (104F). Anyway, it'll be brutally hot in some way, shape, or form. Whether it's 98F or 101F or 95F/77F.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The GFS 2m temps have been improved from last year. I mean it was trying to lop 20C onto the 850s last year to produce 110F 2m temps. Of course dews ended up overperforming as well which limits your heating potential. So 100s really didn't have much of a chance.. 22-23C with W flow and good mixing would get it done though barring 75-80F dews. It's all kinda moot except for the weenieness that is actually the century mark. If we were a celcius country we probably wouldn't oooh and ahhh until the temp hit the elusive 40C (104F). Anyway, it'll be brutally hot in some way, shape, or form. Whether it's 98F or 101F or 95F/77F.

So you don’t believe this has a good shot (40%?) to be muted / I.e big 850 heat shunted S in coming days ?

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Good point by Brian... 

It's like the old mantra " Don't focus on the eye of the hurricane "   ...sorta 

I mean, if it's 96/76 ... it doesn't matter if one's trophy has the 101 etched into it - 

Also, I'm not totally convinced these BL prognostic metrics are improved my self.   Take Thursday on the 06z version:  it's got 68 F at 18z, under 576 dm thickness no less ... over all of southern vt/nh/and interior mass and the coasts, due to what looks like a spurious overly 'bent back' surface pressure pattern.  A set up it certainly then googly gulps in chilly Atlantic air deep into the interior.  I just ...I dunno - 

The problem is, the antecedent periods don't support this happening ...so where does it come from...?  I think it's the model's thermodynamic handling causing too much viscosity in the BL from saturation - plausibly ...too much DP and or too dry of DP before modest advection takes place.  

I'm spit balling I admit, but Thursday looks dubiously too chilly given all ... I can understand Logan ..eastern coastal zones and some warm mitigation from SSE flow ahead of a diffused warm frontal structure(s) sure... but that appears to strain credibility and that's BL handling-caused imho.  

Tell ya what ...if it happens... mad kudos!

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6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

A large contingent of well-dressed men in business suits just passed .

Nowadays it’s untuckits and chinos though I still roll old school 

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Also, I'm not totally convinced these BL prognostic metrics are improved my self.

Well...it's like getting a D on test 2 after an F on test 1. An improvement, but you're still far from any academic accolades. lol

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well...it's like getting a D on test 2 after an F on test 1. An improvement, but you're still far from any academic accolades. lol

LOL  

fair enough -

btw, speaking of Wednesday already... the new NAM is a perfect day set bare-backed upon a leather seated 1976 Chevy Malibu -pre A.C. style..  

It has T1 of 28 C and 850s already over 18 C at 18z at Logan on a west wind... it'll be interesting to see what the GFS does but that's a wee-bit different. 

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Actually has thickness already 577 dm with 19.5 C at 850 at 00z Thursday... 

This model is interestingly anxious to get the heat cookin' despite being typically cooler - 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually has thickness already 577 dm with 19.5 C at 850 at 00z Thursday... 

This model is interestingly anxious to get the heat cookin' despite being typically cooler - 

It actually tries to move a shallow BD into ENE at the end of the run after that s/w trough passes north of us around d3. Tries to pull 70s over 50s Thu afternoon with onshore flow.

image.png

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40 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nowadays it’s untuckits and chinos though I still roll old school 

I was reading about the 'male style' for 2019 and apparently cargo shorts are dead... 

Honestly reading the article ... it seemed like the proponents of fashion have just always hated cargo shorts and are a bit overly thrilled to announce them as dead, claiming that chinos are the way now. 

Be that as it may, ... but, I still think it's more of a generation thing.  Gen-Xers are still doing what they've always been comfortable doing, which cargos... Xers are taking over middle age now ... Just like our fathers - they didn't deviate much either...  I'm sort of tacitly aware of fashion ... mainly because I have 8 sisters and half of them are artists so... that pretty much forced me to be aware of it.. Anyway, the Millennials have adopted the flip flop and chino shorts look...  which ...ironically?  That is really the "orientation fluidity" of the 1980s ( to put it PC ).   

Yeah ... that's right.  And it's interesting how the standard/fad for masculine identify has taken on a look that is actually reversed in the past three decades.    

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It actually tries to move a shallow BD into ENE at the end of the run after that s/w trough passes north of us around d3. Tries to pull 70s over 50s Thu afternoon with onshore flow.

image.png

Yeah I was just looking at the 60 hour on the FRH grid when I was looking that over ... but now I see looking at that synoptics where the chilly Thrusday comes from....

Interesting, ... it almost appears to create the BD out of nothing...Its not like it cross NE Maine and then cuts all the way down like is more typical... It more like instantiates it right in the area... 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I was just looking at the 60 hour on the FRH grid when I was looking that over ... but now I see looking at that synoptics where the chilly Thrusday comes from....

Interesting, ... it almost appears to create the BD out of nothing...Its not like it cross NE Maine and then cuts all the way down like is more typical... It more like instantiates it... 

Maybe it's more of a weak "front" door...if you loop the images.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETANE9_12z/etaloop.html

The return flow of high dews moves right back in. Probably just the NAM doing NAM things

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was reading about the 'male style' for 2019 and apparently cargo shorts are dead... 

Honestly reading the article ... it seemed like the proponents of fashion have just always hated cargo shorts and are a bit overly thrilled to announce them as dead, claiming that chinos are the way now. 

Be that as it may, ... but, I still think it's more of a generation thing.  Gen-Xers are still doing what they've always been comfortable doing, which cargos... Xers are taking over middle age now ... Just like our fathers - they didn't deviate much either...  I'm sort of tacitly aware of fashion ... mainly because I have 8 sisters and half of them are artists so... that pretty much forced me to be aware of it.. Anyway, the Millennials have adopted the flip flop and chino shorts look...  which ...ironically?  That is really the "orientation fluidity" of the 1980s ( to put it PC ).   

Yeah ... that's right.  And it's interesting how the standard/fad for masculine identify has taken on a look that is actually reversed in the past three decades.    

screw fashion. cut-off jeans ftw. My dad used to wear them and used a rope as a belt

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I need lots of pockets so f um cargo is my casual. Chino semi.

Hot hot hot incoming until then well just another fine day. Model epic Barry fails abound. Lol how are the climate change alarmists 911 callers doin. I understand drawing attention to an issue but like everything else the radicals cry wolf and lose the important message. Too bad they are so many half truths, agenda driven folks in the media all around. I hope they understand most of us laugh at them.

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4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

screw fashion. cut-off jeans ftw. My dad used to wear them and used a rope as a belt

As a kid that was actually cool.

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6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

screw fashion. cut-off jeans ftw. My dad used to wear them and used a rope as a belt

Nothing like a man in cutoff jeans, socks, and sandals. Add a man-bun up top and you have the hallmark of an American sex symbol.

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3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

screw fashion. cut-off jeans ftw. My dad used to wear them and used a rope as a belt

DILF Khakis and GILF shorts for the win.

 

Either would work today.  It is a COC day up here today!  The air felt great this morning with all the windows open.

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30 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

screw fashion. cut-off jeans ftw. My dad used to wear them and used a rope as a belt

Luv my wranglers.

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This might be the nicest day of summer to date. Crystal clear air, comfortable temps, low dews, light breeze. Had an hour long swim in the sound and didn't even get chilly. Tough to beat. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I need lots of pockets so f um cargo is my casual. Chino semi.

Hot hot hot incoming until then well just another fine day. Model epic Barry fails abound. Lol how are the climate change alarmists 911 callers doin. I understand drawing attention to an issue but like everything else the radicals cry wolf and lose the important message. Too bad they are so many half truths, agenda driven folks in the media all around. I hope they understand most of us laugh at them.

Agenda driven folks are usually quite transparent to me . Always protesting 2 much, name calling ,  intellectual light weights that can fool those that are almost always fooled 

81- Nashua C.O.C baby !

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23 minutes ago, Hoth said:

This might be the nicest day of summer to date. Crystal clear air, comfortable temps, low dews, light breeze. Had an hour long swim in the sound and didn't even get chilly. Tough to beat. 

So so many perfect July days. Water is just right. Need some surf

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I need lots of pockets so f um cargo is my casual. Chino semi.

Hot hot hot incoming until then well just another fine day. Model epic Barry fails abound. Lol how are the climate change alarmists 911 callers doin. I understand drawing attention to an issue but like everything else the radicals cry wolf and lose the important message. Too bad they are so many half truths, agenda driven folks in the media all around. I hope they understand most of us laugh at them.

The Barry totals were definitely a big bust. That's good though...obviously less flooding than expected. Kind of the opposite of what happened in Harvey when the totals were more than forecast. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm sorry ... "Barry fails"  - what does that mean 

Means the storm ...Barry...failed to produce the “substantial “ storm effects that were forecast 

shocking for such a ugly system 

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12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So so many perfect July days. Water is just right. Need some surf

I’m going to either Spruce peak Stowe early Aug or Newport (for couple nites), i’D Rather Newport ...but I don’t see much potential for surf 

mid Aug to Mid September is swell season

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mm... GGEM is trying to sneak shirk the heat tho - ... nicking here and there on height and width of the thing...  May just be model noise... but you know, like I've been sayin all along.. I don't like the flat look to the ridge, and the fact that we are so close to the jet/westerlies that this has marginal room for error. 

If this some turns into an 89/74 pig bummer ..wouldn't shock me just the same.  No room for error is bit too pricey for modeling performance at D5+ 

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