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Typhoon Tip

July pattern(s) and discussion

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27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS gone wild this weekend. Wow. Hot Saturday 2.0

Three straight days of 100+ at BOS, sure.

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 Man what a morning. Beautiful out. It does look like the thermostat turned up for about a week or so starting tomorrow.  I’m actually happy the euro op backed off that trough for next week. Let’s keep it warm for the lake. 

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49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Man what a morning. Beautiful out. It does look like the thermostat turned up for about a week or so starting tomorrow.  I’m actually happy the euro op backed off that trough for next week. Let’s keep it warm for the lake. 

It still looks troughy end of next week. 

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Back in LA days it would be earthquakes and 100+.  Shake and bake.  We bake hopefully without the shake late week/weekend.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It still looks troughy end of next week. 

We cling?

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6z GFS is still 100F on Sat with W flow and a launching pad with 23C 850s. BOS probably won't be below 80F Friday night.

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29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It still looks troughy end of next week. 

Yeah won't be U90s, but not the 552 thicknesses the op had the last few runs. 564 is good. 

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Models have kinda been all over the place after the weekend. Agree with Scoot though. Probably a delayed trough that’ll verify as a mild down. 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Models have kinda been all over the place after the weekend. Agree with Scoot though. Probably a delayed trough that’ll verify as a mild down. 

Davis Strait blocking and +PNA so it will definitely cool down. Tasty look if it were winter.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Models have kinda been all over the place after the weekend. Agree with Scoot though. Probably a delayed trough that’ll verify as a mild down. 

icy cold shot

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12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

1/2 way thru July now.  Torchy month.  Running +3.7F at TAN. Only 2 days have been below normal.

ORH is at +4.0F.  Only 1 BN and that was a paltry -1.   However, no double digit positive departures, one +9.    A pretty nice month thus far.  This weekend we roast though

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It's tough to pull a +10 this time of the year. BOS's normal right now is 74F, so a 91/74 (yesterday) only nets a +9F.

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's tough to pull a +10 this time of the year. BOS's normal right now is 74F, so a 91/74 (yesterday) only nets a +9F.

I've had a couple +9 this month

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

6z GFS is still 100F on Sat with W flow and a launching pad with 23C 850s. BOS probably won't be below 80F Friday night.

I know it's summer and all, but we have our annual BBQ this Sat and no AC in the house (other than bedroom). 90+ is pretty brutal when everyone is out on the deck. Makes one want to drink more. Gotta have plenty of water on hand. Is it supposed to be HHH or just hot?

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3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I know it's summer and all, but we have our annual BBQ this Sat and no AC in the house (other than bedroom). 90+ is pretty brutal when everyone is out on the deck. Makes one want to drink more. Gotta have plenty of water on hand. Is it supposed to be HHH or just hot?

An all-out HHH. Be prepared. 

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

An all-out HHH. Be prepared. 

There is a shot the big 19c + 850’s Stay to the S and Sw of lava rock and at 700’ he may be not thaat bad .

dews per gfs are mid 60’s early pm to 70 after evening for that part of Maine

Right now  I would say the goal posts are as high as [email protected] 700’ to around 85 for Saturday w a likelihood of a high around 90 with upper 60’s dews 

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6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I know it's summer and all, but we have our annual BBQ this Sat and no AC in the house (other than bedroom). 90+ is pretty brutal when everyone is out on the deck. Makes one want to drink more. Gotta have plenty of water on hand. Is it supposed to be HHH or just hot?

Glad i'm just attending the wedding on Saturday and not in it, Going to be a scorcha.

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7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Maybe have an IV bag of fluids onboard:D

Its outdoors and at a venue i have been before, Just need to work in some waters into the equation but i usually have my drinks with water anyways.

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39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's tough to pull a +10 this time of the year. BOS's normal right now is 74F, so a 91/74 (yesterday) only nets a +9F.

Boston mean on Hot Saturday was 92.5 (102/83), only 0.5° above 7/22/2011 (103/81) but 2.5° above 3rd place.  Their 8/2 mean probably isn't far from that for yesterday.  In January, a day that's 20° AN qualifies as a torch but happens every few years.. In July/August it would set all time heat records. 

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9 hours ago, dendrite said:

GFS gone wild this weekend. Wow. Hot Saturday 2.0

HA!  

I was just thinking 'hot saturday' when I finally got a chance to look things over.  Probably not an analog though -  

Yeah, that's notable alright! 

Thing is... ( not that anyone asked or cares ) but I still don't like the look of the models.  It's good that the Euro and GGEM finally relaxed that ridic looking massive spatial trough they engineered over SE Canad up through the D. Straight regions of the hemisphere.  I mean ... man, it looked like late January 1994 ... in July!   Nope - ... so, that much was good/expected.  

But, the heat its self and it's parental circulation still seems a bit dice to me.  It'll work out, provided that razor's edge/no margin for error modeling can persist and verify. It's just hard to believe the models will pick up on such a fragile set up and no perturb it before it can happen.   Seems like we're trying to pull that off though, huh - 

But man ... talkin' + 14 on climatology on a tool that is heavily weighted to climate the farther out in time.  By the time you get D6/...7 ...seems that may suggest that the heat signal's gotta be pretty heavy.  interesting...  Unless the calculation for the GFSX MOS is changed  ... I dunno.  

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9 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Three straight days of 100+ at BOS, sure.

You and your staff are certainly already privy to the following ... 

But, this model's immediate ancestor seriously and embarrassingly gaffed last year's summer heat episodes with ungodly ... hell-bound top errors in the boundary layer.  

And it wasn't just heat... It blew it in some of those cold cyclone systems in March 2018 as well... having 3.5" of QPF in CCB, with temperatures of 39 over DPS of 32 - type absurdities.  

Question:   I read the PDF/demo of the then FV3' and how it was argued a better performer, but that performance appears to be focused in deep layer tropospheric steering and synoptic stretching/progressive corrections.  I'm not sure if any improvements in the BL thermal handling was included?    If not ... heh...  should we assume the heredity for suspect BL handling is still there??  

 

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thankfully a local and well respected forecaster from BDL hammers home the concept that the gfs is never considered for their analysis. Phew.

Yeah...so it's not gonna be hot ... "phew" ?

While I wouldn't necessarily trust the gaudier numbers ...particularly at this range, when things can tweak and limit it to just miserable as opposed to actually dangerous... I think maybe we should all still plan on a bad couple few days here ...  

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