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NJwx85

May 28th-30th Severe Potential

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I expect the cells to the NW of Scranton to ride the boundary Southeast. SPC has extended the tornado watch over much of Southern NJ and into the Delmarva but Northeastern sections of NJ remain out of the latest watch.

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5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

How do they know the tornadoes will be brief?

MCD_862.png.1088d3a01f37c9ec9dfa0080c1774abb.png

lack of sfc-based instability means the mesocyclones w/ the supercells may spin up tornadoes where there are pockets of higher instability. that's a nasty hail core w/ the primary cell N of AVP. warned for 2" hail now.

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Watching the storms in Scranton from my home in Sullivan. They're moving along and won't hit me (I think) but the WF is gonna lead the storms right to the metros. Stay safe.

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At 5:43 PM EDT, Laceyville [Wyoming Co, PA] 911 CALL CENTER reports TSTM WND DMG. REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD, FLYING DEBRIS, AND A DEBRIS FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF LACEYVILLE MOVING EAST ALONG THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER.

At 6:03 PM EDT, Tunkhannock [Wyoming Co, PA] EMERGENCY MNGR reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH)

 

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Getting a little nervous here. The shear on radar indicates that the core is going to move right over NE NJ, extreme Southern NY. Not worried about tornados but I am worried about 2” hail.

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1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

the NJ side of the metro should be under a watch imo

The storms affixed themselves to the WF. Really nervous about metro areas now more than my own home in Sullivan, we are on the cooler side of it.

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Just now, purduewx80 said:

agreed. boundary from LI Sound is settling just S/W of Newark now. Severe cells fairly likely even on the cool side of it. 

the cool air is so shallow too

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Of course I went to hunterdon and Warren county and now I'm too far south lol

Yep. We were heading south. Turning back north now though. The southern storms look to turn into a mess

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If the Scranton storm turns right I’ll probably just miss it here, but as it stands now I’m directly in the path of the hail core.

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Seems like everything is weakening below severe

Might just be cycling, the lead cell looks improved on the latest scan and turning right some.

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As it turns out my Sister in law ended up in the emergencey room so I’m headed down 287 towards Morris County.

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Upton 
613 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will send a warm front across portions of the area
this evening, then passes to the east late tonight followed by a
cold frontal passage. Another wave of low pressure will track
along the front on Wednesday, passing near or just south of the
area Wednesday night. The boundary lingers south of the area
into Thursday. A cold front then moves through the region Thursday
night, with brief high pressure returning for Friday into
Saturday. Another frontal system will move through on Sunday,
followed by building high pressure into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Based on radar and stlt, the tstm risk has been slightly slowed.
Otherwise, the fcst is on track. Warm front approaching from
the southwest separates a moderately to highly unstable airmass
to the west and a stable marine layer to the east. As low-level
winds continue to veer to the south this evening and the warm
front works into portions of the area, ingredients will be in
place for the development of scattered to numerous strong to
severe thunderstorms. Latest HiRes guidance shows boundary
setting up across NYC metro, Long Island, and portions of the
Lower Hudson Valley. This combined with 0-6 km deep-layered
shear of 40-50kt and 0-3 SRH value around 400, supports rotating
updrafts and strong mid-level mesos should convection be
realized. The main threat will be damaging winds and large hail,
but isolated tornadoes are a possibility, especially just west
of the NYC metro where surface based instability will be
highest. Of course, where the boundary resides this evening will
be key player to where the damaging winds and tornados can be
realized. As the cells propagate east, they will become elevated
due to the marine layer. Large CAPES values out east and the
maintenance of the low-level cold pool though could briefly
scour out the marine layer even for areas just east of the NYC
metro.

Most likely timeframe for the convection is between 6-10 pm,
with the Lower Hudson Valley and interior northern NJ on the
earlier side of that range. Convection looks to initiate north
and west of the area in association with the boundary across
the NY/PA border, then drops south and east of Long Island
toward midnight.

Localized heavy rainfall is likely with the strongest activity,
but a WNW storm motion in excess of 30 kt should limit the
flash flood threat.

Cold front passes through by daybreak with lows in the mid 50s
to lower 60s, slightly above normal.

There is moderate risk for rip currents at the Atlantic beaches
this evening, except for high across the beaches from Nassau
west due to moderate S/SE winds and building waves.

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