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NJwx85

May 28th-30th Severe Potential

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Two big supercells all alone in Eastern PA right now, both tornado warned. Both have a legit shot of making it into the Philly metro area.

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Sounds crazy, but it is not out of the realm of possibilities that the tornado threat extends further east into NE NJ and the NYC area. It is not likely that will happen but some signs are starting to hint at that along the boundary around 0z 

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The 18z 3k NAM takes the development NW of Scranton and brings it Southeast towards the area.

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_8.png

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Clearing and up to 74 sw union county

just started getting breaks in springfield 

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No real change to the latest SPC convective outlook. Still a slight risk to the NJ/NY border and an enhanced risk for the Western half of NJ.

day1otlk_2000.gif

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12 minutes ago, Phillycane said:

Sun completely out now with some blue skies here in the UES 

 Think you would be better off back  in philly for this one

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

 Think you would be better off back  in philly for this one

Yea they are looking good down there.  Hoping for something interesting up this way, we'll see...

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Cell in NE PA should have a tornado warning on it. TDS showing up w/ 1-2 velocity scans  showing a probable tornado.

tor.thumb.png.6a7668f6de3a0fd7ea838be9472c8cd8.png

that cluster should end up riding the differential heating boundary/CAPE gradient/modified warm front SE towards us.

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4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Cell in NE PA should have a tornado warning on it. TDS showing up w/ 1-2 velocity scans  showing a probable tornado.

tor.thumb.png.6a7668f6de3a0fd7ea838be9472c8cd8.png

that cluster should end up riding the differential heating boundary/CAPE gradient/modified warm front SE towards us.

Good call

Tornado Warning
PAC015-115-131-282130-
/O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0012.190528T2057Z-190528T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
457 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Susquehanna County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Bradford County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
  North central Wyoming County in northeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 530 PM EDT.

* At 457 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Rome, or near Towanda, moving southeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Herrickville around 510 PM EDT.
  Herrick, Le Raysville and Brushville around 515 PM EDT.
  Wyalusing and Camptown around 520 PM EDT.
  Rushville around 525 PM EDT.
  Rush, Laceyville and Auburn Center around 530 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

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Mesoscale Discussion 859
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 859 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0859
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Areas affected...much of Pennsylvania...portions of New Jersey

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 274...

   Valid 282043Z - 282245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 274 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW274 with very large
   hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes remaining possible.

   DISCUSSION...Per radar imagery, multiple discrete supercells are
   tracking east-southeast across Pennsylvania. Some of these
   supercells have a history of large hail and damaging winds and the
   potential for severe hail/wind remains. Mid/low-level rotation has
   been observed in a few of these supercells via KPBZ/KCCX indicating
   the potential for tornadoes. The storm environment still remains
   conducive for supercell development/maintenance with MLCAPE of 2000+
   J/kg and effective bulk shear of 35-55 knots. Additionally, the
   strongest supercells have shown more southeastward movement
   enhancing low-level SRH (200+ m2/s2). These storms should continue
   moving east-southeast into the evening and there is potential for
   upscale growth into a QLCS, which would increase the severe wind
   potential across eastern/southern portions of the watch.

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7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Cell in NE PA should have a tornado warning on it. TDS showing up w/ 1-2 velocity scans  showing a probable tornado.

 

 

that cluster should end up riding the differential heating boundary/CAPE gradient/modified warm front SE towards us.

Yeah, first tornado warned cell from the cluster of storms which will head toward NYC later. 

 

0BB2B660-0BAA-4AEF-951B-D2AB121F2B04.thumb.png.458db75e88c3d65567f3e0419e9937f7.png

 

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
552 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

PAC015-069-131-282215-
/O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190528T2215Z/
Lackawanna PA-Bradford PA-Wyoming PA-
552 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN LACKAWANNA...SOUTHEASTERN BRADFORD AND CENTRAL WYOMING
COUNTIES...

At 549 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Meshoppen, or 7 miles northwest of Tunkhannock.
Another severe thunderstorm was located near Wyalusing.  Both
thunderstorms were moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. At 543 pm, a funnel cloud was
         reported in the Laceyville area in northern Wyoming County.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Tunkhannock, Lake Carey and Evans Falls around 600 PM EDT.
  Osterhout around 605 PM EDT.
  Falls around 610 PM EDT.
  Waverly, Dalton and Factoryville around 615 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

LAT...LON 4165 7626 4169 7616 4168 7611 4164 7611
      4164 7598 4156 7565 4142 7583 4140 7594
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 299DEG 32KT 4161 7606

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN

$$

DAB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
551 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

NYC025-PAC127-282200-
/O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-190528T2200Z/
Delaware NY-Wayne PA-
551 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND NORTH CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES...

At 551 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Hancock, or 7 miles southeast of Deposit, moving
southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Hancock around 555 PM EDT.
  Fishs Eddy, East Branch and Peabrook around 600 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4190 7508 4182 7517 4198 7539 4200 7538
      4200 7536 4201 7538 4205 7535 4201 7505
      4200 7501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 297DEG 35KT 4199 7531

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

JRK

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