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NJwx85

May 28th-30th Severe Potential

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HREF (SPC hi-res ensemble) has a substantial signal for rotating supercells grazing the city late afternoon/early evening. Junky warm advection precip may continue over the city too long into the afternoon to get much sfc-based instability, but most of NJ/PA remains in line to see a severe thunderstorm outbreak later.

12Z_HREF.thumb.png.994b4eeff43b1f65ba823da6c3135427.png

 

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Via SPC:

Quote
...Mid-Atlantic to the OH Valley this afternoon/evening...
   A weak surface cyclone in extreme southeast Lower MI will translate
   eastward near the NY/PA border this afternoon in association with
   subtle speed maxima in the westerlies aloft, as a surface warm front
   moves east-northeastward into eastern PA/NJ.  The warm sector will
   become moderately unstable by early afternoon (MLCAPE near 2000
   J/kg) with minimal convective inhibition, and scattered thunderstorm
   development is expected near the path of the surface low and along
   the trailing east-west oriented front near 18z.  Moderate buoyancy
   and effective bulk shear of 50 kt or greater with long, relatively
   straight hodographs will support splitting supercells in the warm
   sector.  These storms will be capable of producing large hail and
   damaging winds into this evening.  Additionally, a few tornadoes
   will be possible, given sufficient low-level shear/hodograph
   curvature (0-1 km SRH in excess of 150 m2/s2) from PA into NJ,
   especially near the surface warm front.

 

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latest RAP sounding for EWR valid at 22Z:

15Z_RAP_KEWR.thumb.png.9ab4da667f6fa421460647bf20c3f5cb.png

it suggests the warm front mixes northwards quickly behind these last few showers/iso storms, which is certainly possible given 925mb flow turning SW'rly momentarily. you can see the warm front mixing northwards quickly on the latest visible loops, but its continued progression will depend on how quickly those cells out in central PA develop the next few hours. any large increase in those may slow the warm front down.

1641Z_vis.thumb.png.7f77feff8b740773c646dc058003d399.png

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We rarely get more than dime or golfball sized hail here. A funnel cloud or waterspout would be interesting to see, however.

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Lots of clearing now on visible satellite imagery over Central and Eastern PA moving East. 

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Word on the tornado watch is that it might be extended further East later but that SPC felt that confidence was currently lower.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Word on the tornado watch is that it might be extended further East later but that SPC felt that confidence was currently lower.

it's smart placement for the time being. plenty of time to expand it should instability build farther N/E during the late afternoon.

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Just now, purduewx80 said:

it's smart placement for the time being. plenty of time to expand it should instability build farther N/E during the late afternoon.

Agreed. We all know what the marine layer does once you get closer to the NYC area. 

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20 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Agreed. We all know what the marine layer does once you get closer to the NYC area. 

The vis loop a couple of posts up show the lower level pushing due north instead of northwest, wonder if that will keep the marine layer from pushing as far inland.

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At least 4-5 supercells already ongoing in Western PA with hail up to golf ball size and 60MPH+ wind. 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

71 DBZ hailer in WPA .

 

531482BD-AAC5-4ACF-9537-1AED98AD803A.thumb.png.625b330164bf7952afd43132b8ad3c2c.png

Radar indicated rotation as well and an appendage on the SW flank.

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Radar indicated rotation as well and an appendage on the SW flank.

2.25 inch hail and and downed trees.

At 2:48 PM EDT, Stoneboro [Mercer Co, PA] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HAIL of 2.25 INCH. NUMEROUS TREES 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWNED.

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2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

We are targeting an area between Lancaster, PA and Trenton, New Jersey for our chase today. I think that will be the greatest risk area for tornadoes. 

Lancaster always seems to get something.

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RAP really tries to advect the unstable parameters N&E, will see if it holds any weight.

Temps now climbing above 70, dews in the mid 60s.

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Just now, bluewave said:

Warm front approaching the I-78 corridor.

 

656E5B53-CF0A-46BC-A91A-738CE4BA672C.thumb.png.5d12461f04640fd69dfc2105097fe022.png

 

Yes, I'm about 7 miles S of I78 and my temp has jumped up about 6 degrees. 

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the cells to watch later will be those showers developing near the surface low upstate. those should ride southeast towards the city given the shear and instability gradient in place.

 

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