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Rtd208

May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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On 5/16/2019 at 11:06 AM, dmillz25 said:

I much rather take a cooldown into the 60s than the 40s/50s

Still a squeeze play for us between the the SE Ridge and 50/50 low. So the warm front-backdoor boundary will be nearby. 

12z Euro highs for NYC

Fri....74

Sat...69

Sun..71

Mon..85

Tue...66

 

 

Sat...64

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8 hours ago, gravitylover said:

As evidenced by snow as far south as the Litchfield Hills in CT the last few days with accumulating snow above 1500 feet in the Berkshire foothills and a ton of snow at that elevation and above further north.

Bingo! 

It could always be worse, even for the fine folk on LI. Could be up in Maine where this recent type of weather usually lasts until June and only 2 months later starts to get cool again, at least at night, in September.

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Unlike many previous warm days today held on to the warmth all day into the evening. It's not 10 degrees below the high temp by 5pm and falling for once. 

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anomw.5.16.2019.gif&key=f9e07124c9a27a8453eed6697a1cf61e71010bdfd1b978f22ab9170345728945
Depends on where you are on the east coast. Above is not far away, but neither is below.
Which is why the fronts tend to stall over us :/



Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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4 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Bingo! 

It could always be worse, even for the fine folk on LI. Could be up in Maine where this recent type of weather usually lasts until June and only 2 months later starts to get cool again, at least at night, in September.

I have been there on Memorial Day and been able to swim in a lake ( albeit a bit cold ) and I have been there when it was downright frigid.....2012 or 13 was like that, and in snowed in upstate NYC IIRC, or somewhere up there...

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Tomorrow through Monday, temperatures will likely be above normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Sunday and Monday could see the mercury approach or reach 90° as far north as Washington, DC.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The SOI was +2.78 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.669. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. Previously, the modeled figure was as low as 57.3°, which was below what is typical during such patterns and implied a sharper rebound in temperatures toward the end of the period than shown on the guidance. Since then, the guidance has shifted in that direction. It continues to show temperatures reaching the upper 70s as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic region in the latter part of the May 11-20 period. The possibility of an 80° or above temperature in the northern Mid-Atlantic and possibly southern New England during the latter part of this period has increased on the guidance.

On May 15, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.769 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the May 14-adjusted figure of 1.813.

During the May 5-15 period, the MJO reached Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above on two days. Since 1974, three years saw the MJO in Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above during that same timeframe. The mean May 21-31 temperature was 67.9°. The warmest was 2011 with a mean temperature of 71.2°. However, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged +0.62°C during May. The coldest was 1996 with a mean temperature of 64.5°. Then, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged -1.31°C. During the last 6 weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Therefore, the kind of chill that was seen in 1996 appears unlikely. At present, the guidance suggests a mean temperature of 68.2° for the May 21-31 timeframe, but that could be low. In addition, all three cases saw monthly high temperatures in the upper 80s or above in the northern Middle Atlantic region and middle and upper 80s or above in southern New England.

The core of the warm anomalies during the May 21-31 period could be focused over the Southeast. Already, Atlanta has a mean temperature of 71.9° through the first 16 days this month. That ties 2019 with 1952 and 2012 as Atlanta's 19th warmest May 1-16 period on record. Atlanta could approach or exceed the all-time monthly record high mean temperature of 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018.

Overall, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is now 55%.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

EPS freebie posted on twitter. You can see how close to the frontal boundary we will be. The Southeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic will make a run on their warmest May. One of the strongest battles between the SE Ridge and 50/50 vortex on record for May.

 

 

 

Atlanta stands a pretty good chance at surpassing its warmest May on record. Next week could see several days where Atlanta challenges or even sets new daily record high temperatures.

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

EPS freebie posted on twitter. You can see how close to the frontal boundary we will be. The Southeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic will make a run on their warmest May. One of the strongest battles between the SE Ridge and 50/50 vortex on record for May.

 

38C83730-C57C-476D-A0F7-8868D0D0CB8E.thumb.png.6b86337c1c7e17d57b6acc1e53e4e6e0.png

5506E060-D221-4788-89EC-47D57A88C91D.thumb.png.44a347bb6c37f8e4a3328722aedbec0f.png

Wouldn't being on the edge of the heat increase our chances for thunderstorms/severe weather??

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Next 8 days still averaging 68degs., or 4degs. AN.

Month to date is  -2.8[57.5].     Should be -0.6[61.0] by the 25th.

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8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Atlanta stands a pretty good chance at surpassing its warmest May on record. Next week could see several days where Atlanta challenges or even sets new daily record high temperatures.

Yeah, portions of the Florida Keys already set their new highest May temperature on record. Very extreme temperature gradient between the SE-MA and points north and west.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/1128402329139654656

New DAILY and MONTHLY temperature records were set at Key West & Marathon today! The high today at Key West was 94°F and at Marathon it was 96°F.

72F4C66A-E5A9-4457-8891-6B3EB9343ED2.png.125b7b37858143c8977c4863417cd7c4.png

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Looks as lush as a temperate rainforest out there when we get sunnier intervals.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1128025501556252673

This image shows many locations have seen their most number of days reporting at least 0.01" of rain dating back to this time last year. All the "1s" have seen their most number days w/ at least 0.01" reported since May 12, 2018. It includes NYC, Houston, New Orleans, & Hartford.

F6B773FA-C7B6-4B0B-91B6-C5915806CE9B.png.9153d13b373539a3e9ef65a196f86434.png

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks as lush as a temperate rainforest out there when we get sunnier intervals.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1128025501556252673

This image shows many locations have seen their most number of days reporting at least 0.01" of rain dating back to this time last year. All the "1s" have seen their most number days w/ at least 0.01" reported since May 12, 2018. It includes NYC, Houston, New Orleans, & Hartford.

F6B773FA-C7B6-4B0B-91B6-C5915806CE9B.png.9153d13b373539a3e9ef65a196f86434.png

Slightly ot but I wonder if temperate rainforest is what our region is transitioning to with our climate becoming warmer/wetter over the long-term.

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Drizzled for an hour, now over, but clouds to persist?      Down from 74 to 69 now, near 2PM.

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NYC just extended the measurable rainfall record since April 1st to 31 days. April 4th was the last perfectly clear day. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Apr 1 to May 17
Missing Count
1 2019-05-17 31 0
2 2004-05-17 25 0
3 1996-05-17 24 0
- 1929-05-17 24 0
- 1912-05-17 24 0

 

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8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It'll be overcast in an hour

We turned sunny again now it’ll probably downpour lol... overall a very nice day besides a shower

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The 80° isotherm came just south of New York City today. High temperatures just south of the City included: Atlantic City: 83°; Newark: 80°; and, Philadelphia: 82°.

Temperatures will likely be above normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions during the weekend and into early next week. Sunday and Monday could see the mercury approach or reach 90° as far north as Washington, DC. Readings could reach the 80s even into New York City and its suburbs on Monday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The SOI was +14.88 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.669. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. Previously, the modeled figure was as low as 57.3°, which was below what is typical during such patterns and implied a sharper rebound in temperatures toward the end of the period than shown on the guidance. Since then, the guidance has shifted in that direction. It continues to show temperatures reaching the upper 70s as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic region in the latter part of the May 11-20 period. The possibility of an 80° or above temperature in the northern Mid-Atlantic and possibly southern New England during the latter part of this period has increased on the guidance.

On May 16, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.706 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the May 15-adjusted figure of 1.785.

During the May 5-15 period, the MJO reached Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above on two days. Since 1974, three years saw the MJO in Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above during that same timeframe. The mean May 21-31 temperature was 67.9°. The warmest was 2011 with a mean temperature of 71.2°. However, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged +0.62°C during May. The coldest was 1996 with a mean temperature of 64.5°. Then, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged -1.31°C. During the last 6 weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Therefore, the kind of chill that was seen in 1996 appears unlikely. At present, the guidance suggests a mean temperature of 68.2° for the May 21-31 timeframe, but that could be low. In addition, all three cases saw monthly high temperatures in the upper 80s or above in the northern Middle Atlantic region and middle and upper 80s or above in southern New England.

The core of the warm anomalies during the May 21-31 period could be focused over the Southeast. With potential record-challenging heat likely during part of this period, Atlanta could approach or exceed the all-time monthly record high mean temperature of 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. The implied probability of May 2019's setting a new record high mean temperature for May is 52%.

Select Statistics for Atlanta:

Mean Temperature (May 1-17): 72.2° (16th warmest)

Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.0°

Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is now 51%.

 

 

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I heard some people talking about how we go from winter to Summer with no Spring now...I think it's because of short memories...tomorrows highest temperatures came a week after some cold May days...

record max...

90 in 1906...on 5/10 the max was 52 and the min 44...

90 in 1936...on 5/15 the min was 44...it was in the 90's before that earlier in the month...

89 in 1962...on 5/8 the max was 49 and the min 43...42 on 5/9...

88 in 1877...0n 5/11 it was 42 on 5/11...50/43 on 5/10...

88 in 1977...on 5/9 the max/min was 44/36 with wet snow and rain...

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