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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'll probably be the first to right off SNE right off the bat like 99.9% of the time...hell...a few years back that Hurricane (forget which one) where it was 3-days out and some models had it coming to us I told people at school we had no shot.

Anyways...this is just entirely different...there are too many signals which allude to not writing this off. Even if it's like a 10% chance...that's much higher than usual. 

 

 

climo FTW

Hermine? The one that sat south of LI and spun itself out? Or maybe the J storm in 2017, whatever its name was...

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Yeah Jose. 

What's funny is I think that ended up being a "closer call" after the fujiwara :lol:

Anyways what makes me nervous about this is the lead time to warn people may not be very much..not saying anything major is going to happen but this is a perfect place to bring up the topic. 

If/when we do get a big hit...the chaos alone is going to be disastrous. You would hope there could be a good 7-8 day lead time...but realistically the lead time may only be 3-4 days...that's just not enough. 

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4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I forget what the lead time was on Gloria. I assume it was considerable as it was a Cape Verde storm

We probably get an average of like 2 additional days of weather predictability now compared to when Gloria happened. 

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah Jose. 

What's funny is I think that ended up being a "closer call" after the fujiwara :lol:

Anyways what makes me nervous about this is the lead time to warn people may not be very much..not saying anything major is going to happen but this is a perfect place to bring up the topic. 

If/when we do get a big hit...the chaos alone is going to be disastrous. You would hope there could be a good 7-8 day lead time...but realistically the lead time may only be 3-4 days...that's just not enough. 

Don't you worry Wiz, there will be plenty of lead time for whatever materializes.  Truly Big hits are so rare here, it's really not an issue around here.  And with Social Media, and the internet now, the word gets out just fine.  If this looks to be an issue, the news/internet/twitter/ etc etc will be buzzing.   

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16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

We probably get an average of like 2 additional days of weather predictability now compared to when Gloria happened. 

Yeah, maybe for a tamed track CV storm. Carol or Bob? Maybe not.

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15 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Yeah, maybe for a tamed track CV storm. Carol or Bob? Maybe not.

6 days from Carol's development to landfall, more like 3-4 days for Bob. People will get warning either way. Track, intensity, and genesis forecasting are all way better than they were decades ago. 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Boring. Most likely scenario. 

That's what i'm going with for now, Some of these model rums are fun to look at but its no different then fantasy winter storms that appear and disappear until we start getting inside day 5 or so.

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Just now, dryslot said:

That's what i'm going with for now, Some of these model rums are fun to look at but its no different then fantasy winter storms that appear and disappear until we start getting inside day 5 or so.

Yeah, I'd say the chances are "elevated" re: climatology, but still very unlikely overall. 

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Boring. Most likely scenario. 

While I agree that "boring" is the most likely emotional outcome, I'm not sure I buy its complete lack of development over the next 2-3 days.

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54 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don't you worry Wiz, there will be plenty of lead time for whatever materializes.  Truly Big hits are so rare here, it's really not an issue around here.  And with Social Media, and the internet now, the word gets out just fine.  If this looks to be an issue, the news/internet/twitter/ etc etc will be buzzing.   

It's something I think about from time to time.

Like if something like a 1938 happened. I know on here we joke around about damage and all want to see that big weather event happen but if a 1938 happened today it could be quite bad. 

In a group text chat I'm in with some friends there are a few who live on Long Island and one of them was saying that some time ago (don't know when) there was this published report that stated if they ever had to evacuate Long Island due to a hurricane or whatever they couldn't do it...wouldn't be possible. 

I'm sure the word would definitely get out there but would it be portrayed correctly and would people actually listen? 

Hell...stores become hell when the forecast is for 5'' of snow...WTF would happen if the word is power outages for several days or weeks? 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

It's something I think about from time to time.

Like if something like a 1938 happened. I know on here we joke around about damage and all want to see that big weather event happen but if a 1938 happened today it could be quite bad. 

In a group text chat I'm in with some friends there are a few who live on Long Island and one of them was saying that some time ago (don't know when) there was this published report that stated if they ever had to evacuate Long Island due to a hurricane or whatever they couldn't do it...wouldn't be possible. 

I'm sure the word would definitely get out there but would it be portrayed correctly and would people actually listen? 

Hell...stores become hell when the forecast is for 5'' of snow...WTF would happen if the word is power outages for several days or weeks? 

Nevermind a 1938 redux, just a strong Cat 1 woupd be real bad. On my return trips up north I marvel at the Tree Canopy over the roads and the damage a storm would cause. A strong CAT 1 would cause extensive power outages.

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31 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

6 days from Carol's development to landfall, more like 3-4 days for Bob. People will get warning either way. Track, intensity, and genesis forecasting are all way better than they were decades ago. 

Yeah model forecasting has improved, but human forecasting?;) haha

Besides, let's say hypothetically we have a hurricane in the bahamas and it shoots north at 30, 40, 50mph? ...There's only perhaps 1.5-2 days max distance to travel. You can only get so much extra lead time, even with improved technology and forecasting techniques. I know Harvey has made that point before.

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I think a “surprise” hurricane would be near impossible with today’s technology. First, once guidance had a well defined center it’d improve overall forecasting. Second, going from nascent core to hurricane to landfall in SNE would be hard. There would be a time lag between a closed core and winds coming up to hurricane force, not to mention being strong enough to survive the slingshot north. If a hurricane were going to visit, I think we’d get at least 72 hours of notice.

The only way I could see a surprise would be a significant west trend for a Dorian like track, but even that would likely happen over the course of successive model suites over a day or two, not 6-12 hours out for example.

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Yeah a surprise storm is virtually impossible. You're not gonna see 700 people get killed from a hurricane blowing in on an unassuming summer afternoon. The real surprise will be when we actually get a legit cat 2-3 landfall and not some rapidly disintegrating swirl with gusts to the sixties. Then all those people who have been conditioned to expect false alarms in New England will be unprepared and will suffer for it. 

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35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think a “surprise” hurricane would be near impossible with today’s technology. First, once guidance had a well defined center it’d improve overall forecasting. Second, going from nascent core to hurricane to landfall in SNE would be hard. There would be a time lag between a closed core and winds coming up to hurricane force, not to mention being strong enough to survive the slingshot north. If a hurricane were going to visit, I think we’d get at least 72 hours of notice.

The only way I could see a surprise would be a significant west trend for a Dorian like track, but even that would likely happen over the course of successive model suites over a day or two, not 6-12 hours out for example.

Just think ... 

There was once a time when it was absurd to think of the world as round.

There was once a time when it was absurd to think of contraptions that could fly.  

There was once a time when it was absurd to think of going to the moon.  

Just like it is now absurd to imagine any technological reality where weather prediction has become a thing of the past. 

Why, ...because of the advances in Quantum sciences leading to atmospheric momentum guide technologies... Yes, in addition to circumventing the Light Speed limit as described by General Relativity ... a nifty ancillary "precipitant" ( haha ) ability is the advent of the "weather modification net." A global systemic control that dictates the rain and sun cycles around an idealized application that ( of coure) falls well short of any reason for worry. Completely banal and uninspired garden watering, followed by utterly dependable utopic mixtures of sun, clouds andtepid air.

That's what everyone wants. 

If such a reality were to envelop the world tomorrow - just supposin' for a second. .. - I wonder.  About how long do we think this ilk of social media would continue to depot internet pass-time ?  Oh... I give it a two years... By then, then, most that sojourn the past will finally have grown tired of reiterating the same sagas.  And the newer generations that never knew of a world that weather-mattered, having socialized their interest elsewhere, will no longer matriculate in and interest will have extinguished ... just like everything that exists in a Universe intrinsically limited by finite time - including ... the Universe its self - eventually does.   

 

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6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

whatevs, Euro is gonna lock in a sne landfall from here on out. so it's all moot

This’ll be the second consecutive run with impacts up here. Nothing available to kick it once the ridge builds in. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

This’ll be the second consecutive run with impacts up here. Nothing available to kick it once the ridge builds in. 

yes but last run gave yanksfan the biggest impact, which I refuse to accept unless it is going to finally do the job

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