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wdrag

OBS thread 2A-Noon EDT Sunday March 10, 2019

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Snow or sleet should begin ~2A-3A nw NJ and develop east northeastward with better chances for a start as snow when you get to the Hudson River and points east into Connecticut. The southern edge of any very brief slight sleet (or even wet snow) accumulation should be near Interstate 80 prior to sunrise EDT. Significant icing is possible over the high terrain above 1000 feet from nw NJ into se NYS and western CT before temps at even the highest elevations of NJ/SE NYS exceed 32F around Noon Sunday.  Best chance for any small snow accum appears to be the very northern fringe of this NYC forum area.  Hope we can get some reports of wintry accums of some sort. 

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31/14 here with clear skies. We'll see if we can drop a few more degrees before the clouds come in. Nice AFD from Upton,

FXUS61 KOKX 100004
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
704 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure will move into the Great Lakes region as an
attendant warm front approaches from our south tonight. The warm
front moves just over or south of the coast Sunday, followed by
a cold frontal passage Sunday evening. Canadian high pressure
will then slowly build from the west into the mid week. A
frontal system will impact the region late Thursday into Friday.
High pressure will then build into the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Have made some tweaks in the near term based on observations and
trends. Have high clouds coming into western sections just a
touch more than previous update. Overall though, the trend
appears to be slower as latest HRRR and RAP have precip arriving
a good 3 hours later. Have adjusted start time back a bit for
late tonight and Sunday morning. Extreme eastern areas may not
see much precip until around 11 or 12z. Also adjusted near term
temps and winds to better fit early evening observations.

Skies initially remain clear across the area into the evening
as dry air from a departing deep layer ridge slowly begins to
modify. Winds will be light at first, which combined with clear
skies, particularly across eastern areas, may lead to favorable
radiational cooling, with low temperatures likely occurring
early. Thereafter, a non-diurnal trend occurs as a warm front
approaches the area and cloud cover rapidly increases as a deep
low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region. Expect
temperatures to gradually increase through the remainder of the
night.

Winter headlines remain unchanged. Expect a wintry mix across
the interior. Snow accumulations will occur at onset. Trended
towards WPC forecasts with regard to forecast amounts, which is
more in line with the SREF ensembles on the lower end of
predicted amounts. Initially the antecedent dry air mass will
take some time to saturate, and some degree of ridging aloft and
subsidence will still be over the region. As the night
progresses, warm advection will aid in lowering snow ratios,
with sleet eventually mixing in as a 925-700 mb low level jet
strengthens. The potential for heavier snowfall is limited to a
short amount of time, so higher end ensemble amounts upward of
3-4 inches may be difficult to achieve.

Thereafter with strengthening warm advection, there will be a
period with sleet and freezing rain across the interior, while
coastal areas quickly transition to rain. As deep layer forcing
for ascent increases with the short wave passing to the north
and the warm front approaching, there is potential for moderate
rain to occur into the morning.

All areas then become rain by afternoon, with rates quickly
decreasing as dry air aloft advects into the region. Some
lingering drizzle may be possible until the cold front passes
through. High temperatures will be closer to climatological
normals.

&&

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It was heavy heavy sleet here for a while, now it's flurries and drizzle. 34/25/SSE-SSW4-6

edit: 15 minutes after this post Drizzle turned to moderate wind driven snow and the wind is way up. The local weather stations are still showing low winds but up here on my hill it's blowing at least 15.

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Good morning all from Wantage NJ 8s High Point.  I'll check CoCoRAHS and PNS's for further reports.  Per prior, we had 0.5" sleet-snow-sleet 325A-~&A.  Since, we've had some freezing rain with a glaze on all untreated wooden surfaces at a sensor temp of 32.4. I estimate the glaze as less than 1/tenth inch radial.  Three images are attached. One of the glaze, and a second of the snow sleet mix.  I also attached yesterdays ~0830z/9 probabilistic ensemble image for 1" or greater snowfall.  MUCH better than some of the algorithms used by the websites that we use, inclusive of ensembles which I think are more rudimentary in their conversion schemes (10 to 1).  I think in these situations it is better to use the available operational POSITIVE SNOW DEPTH change as a conservative bottom number for snow-sleet accumulations.  I'll repost this on the March banter. I think you'll like the POS S Depth change, especially in situations that occur frequently which is above freezing layers aloft limiting dendrite growth, and of course with temps above freezing at the surface.  Hopefully this is not old news and is useful for review. 905A/10

1OXGd1RrRjqRVa75FRaVlw.jpg

aYiTg9xqQG+x8DSMo4ZdQg.jpg

Screen Shot 2019-03-09 at 5.52.48 AM.png

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It snowed pretty hard from ~5:30-6:30 then it flipped to heavy sleet for 30 minutes before shutting off for a while. It was accumulating nicely then the sleet compressed it into the warm ground very quickly and I ended with 1/2" of frozen accumulation. By 7:15 it was raining and made a sloppy mess of things but at least no ice so that's a win. If you trust the p-type radar it's freezing rain 1/8 mile from me over the top of the small range of hills I'm on. 33/31/SSE4/RN-

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