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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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Today was awesome! .06 on the gauge for today with faint distant rumbles of thunder! Win! :gun_bandana: Two more days left of potential severe? There better be basktball-sized hail on Thursday. :fulltilt:

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35 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Watch canceled for entire SLGT area lol

3rd bust in a row (last night had like 1 rumble of thunder btw) in my yard.

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30 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Another day without even a drop.  There is a storm firing 3 miles to my east right now.  Maybe I'll get to hear a rumble of distant thunder!

I actually chuckled a little when I noticed that on radar a little bit ago lol. I'm watching what's going on out there for my area later on. 

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33 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I actually chuckled a little when I noticed that on radar a little bit ago lol. I'm watching what's going on out there for my area later on. 

Wish you luck better than mine.

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

3rd bust in a row (last night had like 1 rumble of thunder btw) in my yard.

 

53 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I actually chuckled a little when I noticed that on radar a little bit ago lol. I'm watching what's going on out there for my area later on. 

We know how this works: our best severe days are (usually) not heralded beforehand. 

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59 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

 


I could have sworn I saw a bit of rotation in the storm too. I actually took a video of it but it’s pretty cruddy. Maybe I saw my first legit rotation though...

 

Looks like a tube in there!

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4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Looks like a tube in there!

Looks the same to me.  Although I don't think it's over the bridge; it's a bit further back down the river.

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every day I'm not feeling it has given me rain.  So I'm not feeling it today despite the 80% chance.  Thats just because it can't storm 3 days in a row IMBY.  It just can't.  

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15 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

You're also more famous than me...so you're at a higher risk. If anybody wants to mess with me they won't do much damage to little old me. 

ha, i'm not famous, but thank you for the compliment!

40 minutes ago, H2O said:

every day I'm not feeling it has given me rain.  So I'm not feeling it today despite the 80% chance.  Thats just because it can't storm 3 days in a row IMBY.  It just can't.  

can you send it up my way? 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

ha, i'm not famous, but thank you for the compliment!

can you send it up my way? 

maybe.  These things tend to be wishy washy so i can't guarantee my efforts will be successful

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

maybe.  These things tend to be wishy washy so i can't guarantee my efforts will be successful

what good are you :) 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

what good are you :) 

I provide and have provided years upon years of entertainment.  And sound yogurt advice.

 

I have made calls.  It will rain for you today.

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10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

NAM nest keeps spitting out a nice supercell in the vicinity of DC on Thursday.  

The SPC discussion is rather "meh" overall. It certainly doesn't look as robust as those one or two NAM runs. Seems like they might have been flukes...

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2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

The SPC discussion is rather "meh" overall. It certainly doesn't look as robust as those one or two NAM runs. Seems like they might have been flukes...

What, you don't like "poor lapse rates" and limited instability.  Tough to please ;)

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

What, you don't like "poor lapse rates" and limited instability.  Tough to please ;)

After some legit severe days around here I've been disappointed recently. Guess I can't complain after having two tornadoes in a weeks time frame go right by my apartment. 

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        Would love to see better lapse rates tomorrow for sure, but there are still a number of things to like.        This is an anomalously strong June trough arriving at the right time of day.    (We did really well with good dynamics on June 2).     As a result, while the surface winds may be too weak or veered for widespread supercells, the overall wind profile is impressive, and the lift will be strong.     Most CAMs show full heating tomorrow with temps approaching 90.         There will be storms, and there is a good chance that at least some of them will be SVR.

        It's a SLGT day for sure, but in terms of what we need for ENH potential, the NAM nest mid-level temps are a bit cooler than the HRRR and would allow for more instability.    And the best wind fields will overspread our area more towards 23z,  so later initiation would be helpful - the low-level shear will really improve towards 00z if any storms are still around.

 

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4 minutes ago, high risk said:

        Would love to see better lapse rates tomorrow for sure, but there are still a number of things to like.        This is an anomalously strong June trough arriving at the right time of day.    (We did really well with good dynamics on June 2).     As a result, while the surface winds may be too weak or veered for widespread supercells, the overall wind profile is impressive, and the lift will be strong.     Most CAMs show full heating tomorrow with temps approaching 90.         There will be storms, and there is a good chance that at least some of them will be SVR.

        It's a SLGT day for sure, but in terms of what we need for ENH potential, the NAM nest mid-level temps are a bit cooler than the HRRR and would allow for more instability.    And the best wind fields will overspread our area more towards 23z,  so later initiation would be helpful - the low-level shear will really improve towards 00z if any storms are still around.

 

Unfortunately we don't tend to do well when we need timing or moving parts to come together :(

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LWX does mention ML Lapse Rates around 7.0 C/KM and fat cape... with sig amount in the hail growth zone on the soundings in their AFD:

Mid-level lapse rates should also increase, nearing 7C/km.
This will help to make for some "fat CAPE", with a significant
amount in the hail growth zone. Thus, storms on Thursday
afternoon will have potential for large hail in addition to
damaging winds, though right now at least, the tornado threat
appears limited.

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

LWX does mention ML Lapse Rates around 7.0 C/KM and fat cape... with sig amount in the hail growth zone on the soundings in their AFD:

 

 

            some of the guidance shows good lapse rates developing as the upper trough swings east, but others delay the mid-level cooling, leading to the crappy lapse rates that SPC mentioned in their initial day 2 outlook.     The revised day 2 outlook, though, is very encouraging and while it's unclear if they're talking about the mid-Atlantic, they do mention supercell and attendant tornado threat in the east.        As I mentioned earlier, the wind fields will definitely be strengthening later Thursday afternoon, so if we can get some local backing of low-level winds near boundaries, storm rotation is on the table.

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So...I know this isn't exactly on topic (although this is severe weather)...But I wasn't on these forums during the derecho back in 2012. How much in advance did the various know it was coming? (man that was some epicness that night!)

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...I know this isn't exactly on topic (although this is severe weather)...But I wasn't on these forums during the derecho back in 2012. How much in advance did the various know it was coming? (man that was some epicness that night!)

I wasn't here on the forum either, but I think there was decent guidance agreement that a big severe day was coming a few days before. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...I know this isn't exactly on topic (although this is severe weather)...But I wasn't on these forums during the derecho back in 2012. How much in advance did the various know it was coming? (man that was some epicness that night!)

Ian had posted about it a couple days before. the signs were there that a derecho was possible, but they are hard to solidify a forecast for until they've formed. and even then, they have to hold together as they make the trek. 

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