Greg Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I really hope this one works out for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just slightly easier to use a snow map. It was tough doing math class after a bake sale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just slightly easier to use a snow map. And this is why I went to Millersville for Marine Biology instead of Meteorology. Although if I had to choose again I probably would have went the Meteorolgy route... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: F-gen is really pretty simple, because you're just dealing with changes in fronts (temp differences). Shear, diffluence, and tilt. So you stretch or shrink temp gradients (u), you diverge or converge temp gradients (v), or you tilt them up or down (w). I do not think you know what the word “simple”means... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just slightly easier to use a snow map. Creators of the FV3 apparently agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I do not think you know what the word “simple”means... Compared to the QG-vorticity equation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Jesus lol. Aneays gfs was sweet in a lot of spots but as will and others said, had nice potential well NW of QPF max. Don’t be a queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I do not think you know what the word “simple”means... You work your way up to these things...all of the smaller basic equations that you eventually piece together and substitute in to get the larger ones. The only thing that used to irk me was keeping track of your signs whenever you had to plug data into the equations for a specific problem. It's easy to lose or gain a minus sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Ukie is def more amped too...seems like all the guidance sans NAM at 00z is more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is def more amped too...seems like all the guidance sans NAM at 00z is more amped. This is definitely the opposite of last night and to think we still have 18-24 hours to go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Well here we go. Not getting burned on something that has some of the same flags as last night. Some of my reasoning behind this: 500mb: Flat (zonal-like) and fast flow...very little, if any, room for amplification. Vorticity field is crap...too much of it. Likely will be a ton of convection and numerous vort maxes within the flow. No closed off H7 low (I recognize the kink) but seems like that happens south and while H85 closes off, it as well is south. Looking at WV imagery...hard to envision this gaining much in the way of latitude...unless that area of vorticity streaming SE from the northern Plains can help out...that is looking meh. This morning's system likely set a baroclinic zone...this storm could follow right along that track There is going to be a TON of convection in the SE tomorrow and for the fish...that is going to rob moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is def more amped too...seems like all the guidance sans NAM at 00z is more amped. Would not be the first time we saw a SE drift in the 36-48 hour period to come back in the 12-24 window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is def more amped too...seems like all the guidance sans NAM at 00z is more amped. There has been a few flags on the positive side tonight on this as outlined earlier, I would not be surprised to see the Euro move in that direction, The 18z run of the Euro i have noticed since it came on can be wishy washy at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Would not be the first time we saw a SE drift in the 36-48 hour period to come back in the 12-24 window. You mean like most all of them this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Well here we go. Not getting burned on something that has some of the same flags as last night. Some of my reasoning behind this: 500mb: Flat (zonal-like) and fast flow...very little, if any, room for amplification. Vorticity field is crap...too much of it. Likely will be a ton of convection and numerous vort maxes within the flow. No closed off H7 low (I recognize the kink) but seems like that happens south and while H85 closes off, it as well is south. Looking at WV imagery...hard to envision this gaining much in the way of latitude...unless that area of vorticity streaming SE from the northern Plains can help out...that is looking meh. This morning's system likely set a baroclinic zone...this storm could follow right along that track There is going to be a TON of convection in the SE tomorrow and for the fish...that is going to rob moisture I’d at least double your 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Rpm anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I’d at least double your 2-4 That's what I did yesterday and got totally screwed. I can't see how tomorrow night brings anything different than what just happened. This almost looks quite similar to last night...the pattern is the exact same (only major difference I see is with s/w strength digging out of Canada). The QPF field up this way initially seems to be heavily influenced by a vort max models have arriving out of the OV. I'm sure we'll have WAA induced precip, but perhaps not as intense as what is shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That's what I did yesterday and got totally screwed. I can't see how tomorrow night brings anything different than what just happened. This almost looks quite similar to last night...the pattern is the exact same (only major difference I see is with s/w strength digging out of Canada). The QPF field up this way initially seems to be heavily influenced by a vort max models have arriving out of the OV. I'm sure we'll have WAA induced precip, but perhaps not as intense as what is shown. Tomorrow nigjt is totally different. You have a decent s/w in ththe flow, a juicier airmass, higher 850 inflow etc. It is zipping along so we won’t see huge totals, but it won’t be like last night. As a side note, those near taint may get a massive convective thumping of man snow. Guidance really has that look near those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That's what I did yesterday and got totally screwed. I can't see how tomorrow night brings anything different than what just happened. This almost looks quite similar to last night...the pattern is the exact same (only major difference I see is with s/w strength digging out of Canada). The QPF field up this way initially seems to be heavily influenced by a vort max models have arriving out of the OV. I'm sure we'll have WAA induced precip, but perhaps not as intense as what is shown. Forget about last night, tomorrows a different night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tomorrow nigjt is totally different. You have a decent s/w in ththe flow, a juicier airmass, higher 850 inflow etc. It is zipping along so we won’t see huge totals, but it won’t be like last night. As a side note, those near taint may get a massive convective thumping of man snow. Guidance really has that look near those areas. Are you talking about the main s/w coming in from the northwest or stuff coming up from the southwest? I certainly agree with your thoughts and with that I think all of that aligns better for SE CT...perhaps that would need to be pulled back farther NW, but the track of everything doesn't have me very confident for a good part of the state. Also looks like things really crank a bit later so this would be a much better deal for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tomorrow nigjt is totally different. You have a decent s/w in ththe flow, a juicier airmass, higher 850 inflow etc. It is zipping along so we won’t see huge totals, but it won’t be like last night. As a side note, those near taint may get a massive convective thumping of man snow. Guidance really has that look near those areas. Antecedent day seems to indicate that. I see power issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Not happening Wizzy. I’ll jam my shovel into the wood chipper if I see the same amount as today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: Rpm anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Are you talking about the main s/w coming in from the northwest or stuff coming up from the southwest? I certainly agree with your thoughts and with that I think all of that aligns better for SE CT...perhaps that would need to be pulled back farther NW, but the track of everything doesn't have me very confident for a good part of the state. Also looks like things really crank a bit later so this would be a much better deal for eastern areas. From the southwest. It’s decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: much better from the last few runs for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Thanks Will! I liked it better last night when it was 16-20....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Tomorrow's system looks nothing like last nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Are you talking about the main s/w coming in from the northwest or stuff coming up from the southwest? I certainly agree with your thoughts and with that I think all of that aligns better for SE CT...perhaps that would need to be pulled back farther NW, but the track of everything doesn't have me very confident for a good part of the state. Also looks like things really crank a bit later so this would be a much better deal for eastern areas. Heres the funny part..you thought last night looked good for CT for banding,and the overall set up really didn’t look good at all on modeling besides the banding signal, which never materialized. Tomorrow looks much better and different on modeling, and you think it looks worse? You’re the MET..but this looks way different than today, but you’re the pro, not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: From the southwest. It’s decent. Yeah it certainly is decent. If the NAM is right with that blob of vorticity that sort of comes over CT we will get dumped on pretty good and I'll bust super low. It's tough to tell if this is a legit piece of energy or not...it comes out of the same vorticity cluster so who knows. The GFS looks good too and you can really see the precip blossom with the feature. I just think a good part of CT is right on the border with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah it certainly is decent. If the NAM is right with that blob of vorticity that sort of comes over CT we will get dumped on pretty good and I'll bust super low. It's tough to tell if this is a legit piece of energy or not...it comes out of the same vorticity cluster so who knows. The GFS looks good too and you can really see the precip blossom with the feature. I just think a good part of CT is right on the border with this. You'll have a better idea in about 30 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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