OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Check those returns here, Going to end up pulling 1" of 25:1 fluff from the convergence from the ULL and the slp out to the east from today's system............. Great flakes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 I hate to be that person as mentioned before but as unpredictable as models always are and despite the trends of the season this really is a situation (complicated setup, models showing multiple competing areas of vorticity, convection, and low pressure centers, plus fairly large model divergence and shifts so far) where we will likely still have a good bit of uncertainty by tomorrow evening. The fast speed and variable intensity won't help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Great flakes now. Were maximizing that meager qpf, I may have to borrow Brian's leaf blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I'll be hopping for that secondary area of lift displaced far to the NW of the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 0z GFS should come in a little NW, but let’s see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 GFS looks more amped through 18...but it's been pretty far SE, so not totally shocking. Narrow the goalposts some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 That looks like a decent bump on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 GFS could be a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Yeah, This GFS run is going to be NW of 18z, Not a shock though seeing it was half way to England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Yeah gfs was near Bermuda so looks closer to euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 lol, The cape is raining this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah gfs was near Bermuda so looks closer to euro. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Yup...starting to get a consensus now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Scooter with 12”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Wow, that's actually a really intense banding look this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Yup...starting to get a consensus now. Let the NW, earlier closeoff trend begin please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 41 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean there is more to forecasting than New England. NWP continues to get better, year over year, even if it doesn't seem that way in your backyard. And I can't believe I'm doing this but, the FV3 is an improvement over the GFS. My guess is that there was too much complaining about clown maps from the field and so implementation got delayed. Which says more about the forecasters than the models in my opinion. Very true. I can't speak for the rest of the country cause I don't pay attention besides NE and NYC area but you obviously know more than me. I'll take your word for it considering you are a NWS Met and those are NWS/NOAA models so if anyone on this board has good knowledge of them, it's you. I was just going on what I've noticed it (FV3) does verbatim and what I've read on here from others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Now that is what were looking for, I think H85 actually closed off that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Somebody inside of 495 is getting smoked on that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Gfs is a crushing right around the morning commute here... probably a snow day with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs is a crushing right around the morning commute here... probably a snow day with that look That's a happy thing for you, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Now that is what were looking for, I think H85 actually closed of that run. Yeah we actually got 40 knots slamming into the Cape from the SE at 850mb...that's gonna produce a really good area of ML fronto further to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The h7 fgen near the south shore is sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: That's a happy thing for you, right? Well... maybe. I work in facilities for a school district... so a snow day would mean I’m not in at like 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Foxboro over to Hingham looks to jack as per that depiction...maybe into N RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 *puts away noose* not today old friend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said: Very true. I can't speak for the rest of the country cause I don't pay attention besides NE and NYC area but you obviously know more than me. I'll take your word for it considering you are a NWS Met and those are NWS/NOAA models so if anyone on this board has good knowledge of them, it's you. I was just going on what I've noticed it (FV3) does verbatim and what I've read on here from others The FV3 would currently be an incremental improvement on the GFS. The real benefit could be down the road, emphasis on could as long as we don't shoot ourselves in the foot as we transition to the next gen of US modeling. Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we actually got 40 knots slamming into the Cape from the SE at 850mb...that's gonna produce a really good area of ML fronto further to the northwest. That's a real good look on the GFS for interior SNE. I would suspect QPF (or at least ratios) will be better through the ORH area than what is depicted verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we actually got 40 knots slamming into the Cape from the SE at 850mb...that's gonna produce a really good area of ML fronto further to the northwest. Folks will get a nice thump on that NW side of that, This one has more upside to it then yesterdays just pawing over the data from the last 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Foxboro over to Hingham looks to jack as per that depiction...maybe into N RI The best banding actually is prob NW of them this run...though the GFS QPF won't depict that...it almost never does. It's a pretty good look even almost back to where you are...but def for like Ray to 495 and down into C CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Fast mover...limits the damage unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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