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snowman19

March, 2019

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8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario (cutter, rain) and IMO the most likely for Monday 

I'm still not seeing where the Euro track is a cutter? Yea its a track that would lead to mostly rain for our area but I'm not seeing a cutter.   

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5 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Icon looks a bit worse for monday but has some more snow for Saturday than it’s previous run. 1-3 for Saturday and another 3-6 for monday. Friday also has an inch.

Yea the city isn't getting a foot Monday like it previously showed, if the city gets 3-6 it would be a huge win in this winter. I'm not really paying much attention to the other two little events because neither seems like more than an inch. 

 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Yea the city isn't getting a foot Monday like it previously showed, if the city gets 3-6 it would be a huge win in this winter. I'm not really paying much attention to the other two little events because neither seems like more than an inch. 

 

Saturday could be good way better but the lifting is not being recognized by the models too much. Icon had a decent event there almost.

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS is a perfect run for the metro area for Sunday Night/Monday wish it wasn't still 4 days out

but has been consistent - run to run continuity developing....BUT rain/snow line too close for comfort...….

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

but has been consistent - run to run continuity developing....BUT rain/snow line too close for comfort...….

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

Need to be near the rain line to get the best snows, thats why I said it's a near perfect run but yes this could easily be a soaker so have to be cautious.

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5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS is a perfect run for the metro area for Sunday Night/Monday wish it wasn't still 4 days out

 

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

but has been consistent - run to run continuity developing....BUT rain/snow line too close for comfort...….

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

Last run was better and colder but I’d take this run and sprint 

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People keep calling this a monday storm, but it's really a sunday evening/night storm. It will be out of here by early monday morning. Good to see the Canadian trend colder. Hopefully EURO will too.

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

People keep calling this a monday storm, but it's really a sunday evening/night storm. It will be out of here by early monday morning. Good to see the Canadian trend colder. Hopefully EURO will too.

Yea agree I was thinking that too, this is really Sunday evening, it'll be done by around 3-4 am if the CMC/GFS are right. If a Euro like solution happened the storm duration would probably be longer but also a lot wetter. 

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

snowfall_total_accum_10to1_NECONUS_hr144.thumb.png.eb7feac9bd800a35ff044a1489a9fa29.png

Sorry to be negative but if anyone thinks that track will hold until Sunday they are setting themselves up for disappointment. These storms trend north. Snow breeds snow. This will end up being a CNE/NNE special. I hope I’m wrong but there is just too much time for this to come north.

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A little snow tonight , tomorrow night and a possibly bigger storm on Monday. 

Euro has a few snow events to watch moving forward.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The hugger or cutter track followed by cold has been relentless since the fall. 

You would think we would get ONE storm by luck. 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s as if a piece of the record breaking WAR from 2018 got stuck in place. So any really amped system huggs the coast or cuts like the system last weekend. We definitely need a lucky break with one of these systems like we got with the November hugger snowstorm. Root for a weaker and less amped system for Sunday into Monday. 

The storm at the end of the EURO run is probably the best chance, as the frigid cold will be in place already.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

One of the coldest first weeks of March on record for the CONUS as a whole. The 2010’s delayed spring theme is still going strong.

https://mobile.twitter.com/commoditywx/status/1100454735574982657

3DE6F9DB-0CBA-4B1C-AA58-273E10832102.thumb.gif.e7629e6ba544bc3f3274cb5784c85e0b.gif

 

In going with this theme, of the four winter months December through March, March has not been the warmest of thee four since 2012. That has never happened for six years in a row in 150 years of records. Also throw in that March has been the snowiest month in NYC in 3 of the last 4 winters. For all of the posters that wish every February for spring in March, just unnatural here historically, consider that.

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8 hours ago, 203whiteout said:

Sorry to be negative but if anyone thinks that track will hold until Sunday they are setting themselves up for disappointment. These storms trend north. Snow breeds snow. This will end up being a CNE/NNE special. I hope I’m wrong but there is just too much time for this to come north.

Yes I would expect a bit of a bump north but I'm not sure they'll be major changes. I don't really love the airmass in place so this is definitely going to be a thread the needle scenario.  

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