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stormtracker

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

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11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Not pretending. I know what I live with. Sorry for intruding on your trolling. You do you.

The weather affects SAD. If me talking about the weather affects your mood that’s something else. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Last time he said that I got 5” of snow the next day. 

Watch we will get the major coastal storm on Thursday now lol. I am still waiting for my 400% above normal snowfall.

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Just now, Ji said:

this is already the hottest spring ever. Terrible

You know what will happen everything will bloom and then killing freeze will come.  Almost guaranteed. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Last time he said that I got 5” of snow the next day. 

Outside of that event, which didn't deliver for most of the region (and ofc the western highlands upslope etc), he did end up being right for the greater MA region. Not that it was a very bold call given how the winter was playing out.

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5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

You are not talking about weather. You were trolling to be a jerk. 

Ok fine...the weather affects SAD, if my trolling affects your mood THAT is something else! 

 

Furthermore I was trolling a troll for comedic affect.  And you got the joke and still decided to make a big deal out if it.   Even he didn’t throw a fit over it. 

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Outside of that event, which didn't deliver for most of the region (and ofc the western highlands upslope etc), he did end up being right for the greater MA region. Not that it was a very bold call given how the winter was playing out.

You got screwed again but we did get two more snow events that affected the DC-Baltimore area after that. The 4-6” event later in February and the 1-3” one March 1. Plus the one that affected extreme northern MD and PA was the mid Atlantic too by his regional boundaries. And he said winter was over for the whole northeast including New England and they had a pretty snowy period actually. 

We certainly didn’t have an epic period or anything but I had 18” of snow after his “winters over” declaration and places a little north of me in his “winters over” zone had even more.   Imo he busted bad. Not for Richmond. Not too bad in DC. But god awful north of there and he included them. He was over reacting emotionally because of his disappointment at his failure in VA.  It was his call for the northeast and New England when a pretty big snow event was only 48 hours away for them and they typically do ok in a epo gradient pattern that I said was crazy. Not his call for DC south. 

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3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Glad you find my wife's situation funny ravensrule, thanks for that reaction. you are, as always, such a kind board member.

I find your incessant complaining funny. I feel bad for your wife’s situation. Huge difference. 

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4 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

I hear you, but there is SUCH a bias on this board by snow zealots that even mentioning kinda liking seasonal warmth tends to be shouted down or made fun of.  In any event, the cold IS an issue with my wife - as much or more so than the sun, and I can tell you that days like yesterday and today help.  I know no one here controls the weather, but begging for crazy snow events and anomalous cold into late March and April is like nails on a chalkboard to some for personal reasons.

But you are posting on a winter storm thread (it literally has winter in the thread title), where most people come to chase track snow storms and root for them to happen.

I also am not diminishing, as I have some winter blues myself, but tracking snow and experience the snow is the best antidote for me, so that's why I root for snow.  

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

According to DT (Wxrisk) winter is over in the mid-atlantic region and I agree. He also says it will be dry for the next 10 days.

According to NWS, I have a 20% chance of snow Sunday night and a 20% chance Monday morning.  Just saying.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You got screwed again but we did get two more snow events that affected the DC-Baltimore area after that. The 4-6” event later in February and the 1-3” one March 1. Plus the one that affected extreme northern MD and PA was the mid Atlantic too by his regional boundaries. And he said winter was over for the whole northeast including New England and they had a pretty snowy period actually. 

We certainly didn’t have an epic period or anything but I had 18” of snow after his “winters over” declaration and places a little north of me in his “winters over” zone had even more.   Imo he busted bad. Not for Richmond. Not too bad in DC. But god awful north of there and he included them. He was over reacting emotionally because of his disappointment at his failure in VA.  It was his call for the northeast and New England when a pretty big snow event was only 48 hours away for them and they typically do ok in a epo gradient pattern that I said was crazy. Not his call for DC south. 

Yeah if he included NE then definitely. Although by their standards it was still pretty underwhelming outside of some localized areas. I don't pay much attention to him or any of the twitter dweebs but from what I recall posted here he was saying 'winter over' for the MA. Seems I was wrong about that part. For the DC area and points S and E though, he ended up pretty much correct. But like I said, hardly a ballsy call even for those areas.

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Lots of whine in here. Got have a good hunk of aged Gouda to go with it. :lol: Remember it’s just weather. Not life and death. 

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9 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

It's a chocolate lab...how can you tell?

Well, it sure isn't because it smells like chocolate when he drops a deuce in the backyard.

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19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Anyone staying up for the Euro?  Just checking.

I'm watching the Michigan vs Iowa game then calling it a night.   Piss on the Euro......I've given up

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9 hours ago, Icefishingrocks said:

I'm watching the Michigan vs Iowa game then calling it a night.   Piss on the Euro......I've given up

Euro looked bone dry and on the chilly side for the next 10 days. I'd gladly take that.

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4 hours ago, MD Snow said:

The differences at 500 at 120hrs between the gfs and cmc/icon/fv3 are pretty crazy. 

They all find very different ways not to snow. 

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

FV3 cranks up the storm just off the coast next Thursday. Still evolving. 

Stay safe.

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Damn I’ve been begging for warm and dry, but this dude on a different level. It may be just easier to just stay off the board during winter and seek help bro instead of expecting everyone to accommodate your needs.

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20 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok fine...the weather affects SAD, if my trolling affects your mood THAT is something else! 

some 

Furthermore I was trolling a troll for comedic affect.  And you got the joke and still decided to make a big deal out if it.   Even he didn’t throw a fit over it. 

The weather affects some people in a individual manner.   Some people get migraines when the sun flickers through barren tree limbs during winter.  Some get migraines from movement of frontal systems and energetic pressure changes.  Some are apprehensive about being in any car when the roads are the least bit slippery.  Some suffer from excess UV exposure.  Some of scared of being snowed in their homes during a power failure.  Some have a surging blood pressure during thunder and lightning.  Others have mentioned allergy-related health challenges.

I doubt this forum has evil people that wish that their favorite weather will torment another person.  Still, this is the appropriate forum forum people to discuss the types of weather that they find fascinating.

There are probably forums that provide support and empathy for those that crave living in an entirely non-threatening safe space.

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Except for the GFS I thought the other models (Euro, CMC, ICON, FV3) showed some half decent potential for next Friday with just some adjustments here or there. They all are handling the trough and energy driving down somewhat differently from each other so it is obvious that there are still question marks on how this will evolve. Think what it will ultimately come down to is whether we see some decent height rises in front of the dropping trough to get some turning of the trough axis as the flow slows. To get an idea what I am talking about just look at the FV3

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20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Except for the GFS I thought the other models (Euro, CMC, ICON, FV3) showed some half decent potential for next Friday with just some adjustments here or there. They all are handling the trough and energy driving down somewhat differently from each other so it is obvious that there are still question marks on how this will evolve. Think what it will ultimately come down to is whether we see some decent height rises in front of the dropping trough to get some turning of the trough axis as the flow slows. To get an idea what I am talking about just look at the FV3

It would be something if the models start showing some of the strong solutions again from days ago because now we are talking day 5/6 not day 10/12.

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31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Except for the GFS I thought the other models (Euro, CMC, ICON, FV3) showed some half decent potential for next Friday with just some adjustments here or there. They all are handling the trough and energy driving down somewhat differently from each other so it is obvious that there are still question marks on how this will evolve. Think what it will ultimately come down to is whether we see some decent height rises in front of the dropping trough to get some turning of the trough axis as the flow slows. To get an idea what I am talking about just look at the FV3

 

8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It would be something if the models start showing some of the strong solutions again from days ago because now we are talking day 5/6 not day 10/12.

Well as losetoa pointed out even though we haven’t had purty op runs to drool over the h5 setup has remained at least somewhat close on some runs. Enough to keep an eye casually on it. It’s a long long shot but not totally dead.

I’m just not talking about it much because a few people are annoying the crap out of me every time anyone tries to discuss winter potential lately. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

Well as losetoa pointed out even though we haven’t had purty op runs to drool over the h5 setup has remained at least somewhat close on some runs. Enough to keep an eye casually on it. It’s a long long shot but not totally dead.

I’m just not talking about it much because a few people are annoying the crap out of me every time anyone tries to discuss winter potential lately. 

No one is annoyed up in the Central PA thread. Please let us know your thoughts. Some of us still enjoy tracking every last snow potential.

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On 3/15/2019 at 3:02 PM, wkd said:

You could try climbing Mt. Jefferson and then take the Appalachian trail over to Mt. Washington. Easier than the climb up Mt. Washington.

Thanks for the tip

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5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No one is annoyed up in the Central PA thread. Please let us know your thoughts. Some of us still enjoy tracking every last snow potential.

I generally agree with showme. One issue is the flow is really progressive over the top. One way to get something would be for a more energetic system out of the Midwest to do it by itself.   It wouldnt be a coastal climber and only effect the latitude it exited at. But the coastal is running interference on even that. 

Absent that we would need some kind of phasing. Right now the northern stream is acting to suppress. But if something were to dive in further west and heights could rise some in front...it’s unlikely but not impossible. This time of year I would hesitate to just ignore such an energetic upper level system coming through. But there are problems preventing this from being a good setup att. 

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