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February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

The main moisture plume is pushed to our north and west. SE ridge is flexing...just another way to fail...we always find a way lol 

I'm telling ya...We solve one problem with CAD...but now we gotta worry about not having enough moisture because of the se ridge! So it goes around here...fix one issue and another comes, lol

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27 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

Really outlines my issue with the FV3. Euro has 1-3" and the FV3 gives a foot. Whose right? That model had really struggled with snowfall output maps this winter. Scary as it becomes the GFS next month.

First of all the fv3 actually is predicting about 8” in DC don’t exaggerate using that flawed snow map.  The snow depth map is much more accurate.  The kuchera has weird banding issues and the 10-1 has ice issues  the depth one seems to match up better with what it is actually showing if you do the work and look at temps at all levels and precip and figure it out yourself so this is a better idea what it’s really saying.  

1B11676A-432F-43AB-83FB-3DFB71A6DA9B.thumb.jpeg.f66b5419b196ec750fdc419692e71142.jpeg

that’s still really good...6-9” around DC  10-12 Far NW  but let’s not exaggerate it any more.  It’s bad enough!

But is it really that far off from the euro...both imply the change from snow to non snow is around 18z so just about all this precip before is snow.  The only difference is the euro aims that moisture feed slightly NW of the FV3.  At 72-84 hours that’s not a huge difference but since we are right in the area where that relatively narrow band is going to hit it matters big to us!  But look at them...not that different 

euro 24 hour qpf ending 18z924DBB4A-ED3D-4772-A3EB-C02917E3D4A9.thumb.png.37320656a706ab89ce58f8834440692f.png

fv3 24 hour qpf same time  

BE6BE256-C365-4E91-97AA-71D97F4369CF.thumb.jpeg.4ddcf25e70fe79aaa6eb45d45e326d2c.jpeg

they just disagree where that banding is aimed by about 40-50 miles.  That’s all.  

 

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1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes

If it wasn’t the Euro then there would be less pessimism.  But it fails just like the rest.  Maybe less often.  

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Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes

Certainly not everyone. Just the people whose only contribution in the past few pages is to react to one single snow map...

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1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes

Think this run just kinda brought home a potential fail scenario that should taper our expectations for now...we gotta look for how much that se ridge flexes because, from what I understand, it could make a huge difference!

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3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes

Not at all.  I’m still enthused by this event even if I “only” see 1-2” followed by slop.  Fun to track and with the CAD setup, could be some nice surprises since we do well with CAD.  The biggest question mark is where the heaviest WAA sets up as PSU noted above.  

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Just now, gymengineer said:

Certainly not everyone. Just the people whose only contribution in the past few pages is to react to one single snow map...

Se ridge pushing moisture NW is a tangible threat...does it mean to just punt? No...but it is something to keep in mind. Hope it improves on future runs!

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15 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes

Nope. Just dissecting another possible solution. This possible solution is more of a fail solution for us. That’s why things haven’t sounded positive the last 30 mins. You come to a solution by disecting each model run and then applying knowledge of your climo/geography and tendencies with different storm setups that you’ve watched happen before.  Tracking is a marathon not a sprint. We win some and lose some. You win the same way you lose. Digesting many different model runs that arrive at a final solution. Not by reacting to each different model run as the only possible solution. 

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15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

SW PA gets the short end of the snow stick often so glad for them.  I am trying new tactic of positive thinking.  

Blue knob looks right in the bullseye.  

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10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nasty amount of ice on the Euro in the 81 corridor after a decent thump. Especially in the Winchester/Martinsburg area. Would be a real mess.

Yep....and actually areas  from ne Georgia to just south of Maine gets  some ice .And even the Euro is probably most likely too quick scouring out the cad .Real impressive storm on the way imo. 

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Oh, look, more people freaking out over shifts in models 3 days away from a storm. Shocker. Truly unbelievable  

 

IF YOU WANT ALL SNOW, Every storm and a ton of it, move to buffalo or Vermont or Maine or the top of the Rockies or Sierra. You live the mid Atlantic. Stop expecting a KU every single storm. 

The models mostly show an appreciable snowfall for Wednesday. Yes, some show only a 2-4 type storm currently. Dark sky is forecasting 6-9” for Wednesday here in central MD.

I’m thinking the potential is there for along the lines of 4-7” in central MD, 6-9” far NW and more like 2-5” by DC and along 95 and points east-southeast if things fall properly into place. 

Stop with the snow weenie suicide every time a model waivers, for the love of god. Mother Nature  is actually punishing you for bi**hing so much 

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One thing to keep in mind, the models aren’t going to have a good handle on where the moisture feed is going to land for at least another 18-24 hours until this Sunday night storm pulls out. In the the interim, we can just sit back and enjoy the battle between the strong HP and SE ridge.

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25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nasty amount of ice on the Euro in the 81 corridor after a decent thump. Especially in the Winchester/Martinsburg area. Would be a real mess.

Euro is a major winter storm for here.  A lot can change with 72 hours to go but as of now we are in a good spot across guidance.

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I think 2-4” is a nice reasonable forecast for Baltimore and I’d be happy with that. We all know the Winchester to Westminster corridor is gonna be jackpotted with this 

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33 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I think 2-4” is a nice reasonable forecast for Baltimore and I’d be happy with that. We all know the Winchester to Westminster corridor is gonna be jackpotted with this 

Don't forget the infamous Leesburg/Rockville/HoCoMoCo/NW DC deathband. That ALWAYS sets up. Thats another usual jackzone.

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This has a good chance of being the biggest storm of the season for some of us.

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2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Simplified answer is warm air is being spread from the southeast over the Atlantic towards our region.

More on that. It’s often a High centered over Bermuda (Bermuda High) that can both help and hurt with winter patterns. Too strong and it forces storms to our west, often causing it to rain. Except in this case the strong cold HP is suppressing it over our area (exactly where remains to be seen). Alternatively if the High is not too strong it can help force storms up the coast instead of out to sea.

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Just now, Fozz said:

This has a good chance of being the biggest storm of the season for some of us.

I believe I got 5” with that one storm about a month ago or whenever it was. Not sure if I can beat that with this one or not. Kinda expecting 2-4” at this point but the good thing is that it may be hot and heavy for 4-6 hours unlike the 5” storm I got which was like 15 hours of light snow lol

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3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I believe I got 5” with that one storm about a month ago or whenever it was. Not sure if I can beat that with this one or not. Kinda expecting 2-4” at this point but the good thing is that it may be hot and heavy for 4-6 hours unlike the 5” storm I got which was like 15 hours of light snow lol

4.2" here. I think exceeding that is doable where I'm at.

And I totally agree.... even getting 2-3" in the span of a few hours is a lot more fun than 4-5" in 24 hours.

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1 hour ago, jewell2188 said:

A classic example of wasting tax payer money. And another example of “use the budget or lose it next year” 

I can help. First off, VDOT needs to stop reading JIs forecast on Facebook...

:lol:

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