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ORH_wxman

Feb 18 overrunning threat

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13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Man you need to take a deep breath, you will be mostly all snow, the models are getting more aggressive with the precipitation production, and colder at the surface.

You seem to think I'm worried, or bothered, or stressed.  I'm not.  I'm thoroughly enjoying having something to pay attention to.

I'm just realistic, and live on an island in a bay, and looked at the soundings on various guidance, and a lot of them point to sleet for a time.  That could easily lop an inch or two off, and that's that's what output shows.

The models seem pretty set on an event that's pretty mediocre, outside of the context of this winter.  Wouldn't be shocked to see some people outside of the WSW area get a nice band and overperform, but I also wouldn't want to bet on where.  I wouldn't be gobsmacked if I got 3 inches or even less, honestly.  I wouldn't be shocked if someone in the WSW area got 7 inches either.  I don't see some huge swath of NE getting 6 inches though, but what the hell do I know.  

I don't really care as long as my kid can mound some snow.  I think its going to be a fun morning tomorrow for him.

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52 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Storm Center is near southern IN, at around 1008mb, storm is strengthening

What is it now

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think we should start an observations thread, the precipitation is breaking out across western PA.

We still have model guidance to come before it starts.   Ok my obs-clouds in the SW sky.  33F

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Just now, weathafella said:

We still have model guidance to come before it starts.   Ok my obs-clouds in the SW sky.  33F

Mostly sunny skies, cloudy to the southwest, temperature of 31F

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5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think we should start an observations thread, the precipitation is breaking out across western PA.

Do it!

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3-5 should do it here I think. Maybe get lucky with the stuff floating in during aftn but have more confidence in 3-5.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3-5 should do it here I think. Maybe get lucky with the stuff floating in during aftn but have more confidence in 3-5.

I think that BOX map looks really good.

 

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17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Mostly sunny skies, cloudy to the southwest, temperature of 31F

Temperatures are coldest today near the water.  BOS is 32 with a 070 wind vector.  Ocean is as cold as it gets.  Won’t hurt tomorrow.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Temperatures are coldest today near the water.  BOS is 32 with a 070 wind vector.  Ocean is as cold as it gets.  Won’t hurt tomorrow.

I dropped 5 degrees earlier when wind turned NE. Evapo cooling.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Temperatures are coldest today near the water.  BOS is 32 with a 070 wind vector.  Ocean is as cold as it gets.  Won’t hurt tomorrow.

That is why I don't think we mix, that would be the only reason people are predicting mixing on the Cape.  Storm doesn't track closer than the benchmark.  Also the HRRR is stronger with the return of moisture into SNE.  The latest run which is 21z

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For such a small storm this is sure a bit of a complex forecast. The indications of a narrow band or perhaps moderate...maybe heavy snow is quite interesting. Part of me is wondering if some of the latest trends towards a more potent band are a bit overdone...the 18z NAM develops a pretty intense looking area of fronto right over N CT, but the question is why? The degree of WAA doesn't seem that particularly intense and temperature gradients across a horizontal distance and vertically (I don't think) are anything big to right home about. Bufkit soundings do show sufficient ice crystals, but RH is a little questionable. 

I went C-2'' yesterday for CT...I guess may bump to 1-3'' (I could see some getting 4'' I suppose), but sort of a fine line to rely on what may be a narrow band/zone of snow to yield widespread amounts of 4''. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For such a small storm this is sure a bit of a complex forecast. The indications of a narrow band or perhaps moderate...maybe heavy snow is quite interesting. Part of me is wondering if some of the latest trends towards a more potent band are a bit overdone...the 18z NAM develops a pretty intense looking area of fronto right over N CT, but the question is why? The degree of WAA doesn't seem that particularly intense and temperature gradients across a horizontal distance and vertically (I don't think) are anything big to right home about. Bufkit soundings do show sufficient ice crystals, but RH is a little questionable. 

I went C-2'' yesterday for CT...I guess may bump to 1-3'' (I could see some getting 4'' I suppose), but sort of a fine line to rely on what may be a narrow band/zone of snow to yield widespread amounts of 4''. 

You do look at every piece of guidance right? There’s not one piece of guidance only showing c-2 or even 1-3” for CT

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

That is why I don't think we mix, that would be the only reason people are predicting mixing on the Cape.  Storm doesn't track closer than the benchmark.  Also the HRRR is stronger with the return of moisture into SNE.  The latest run which is 21z

I mean the models that mix you mix you because of a warm layer between 900 and 800 mb, not boundary layer temps. So I don't think the water was ever a factor really.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You do look at every piece of guidance right? 

I look at everything with the exception of the snow maps. Don't care for them. Soundings do show some nice omega into the snow growth zone so I'm sure it will come down quite nicely in spots. But we're relying on a very narrow band of heavier snow to produce more than 2-3''. I'm thinking we see more in the way of embedded heavier echos (so very brief over a particular location) and maybe a 3-4 hour window of heavier snows (maybe like 1/2'' per hour rates) 

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