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February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat


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1036 mb highs tend to be stubborn to give up their cold air at the sfc.  So far, nothing telling me we see most of Manhattan north go above freezing anytime soon.

You'll see some occasional bursts of snow but this is a sleet dominant storm and will remain so.

Think theres a period of ZR this evening, but the warm nose is elevated enough that this *should* mostly be sleet.  

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52 minutes ago, jr461 said:

Since areas to the south are unexpectedly mixing with and switching to snow, is that a good sign that freezing rain is not imminent (yet)? 

It would seem that the upper level warming has not penetrated enough layers yet given the widespread sleet and now snow again in central NJ.

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I dont know how unexpected it is.  The warm nose is between 825-700 for the most part.  That's about right.

 

Think sleet is the predominant p type, but the further south you go, the quicker the waa in the 850-925 layer, so higher risk for a period of zr before plain rain this evening/overnight. 

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Just changed back to snow here around 1 pm - wow, did not expect that!  Coming down moderately.  As of 1 pm, we're up to 1/2" of "new" sleet (with a little snow) and the other table has 1 and 1/4" on it, as it should.  Still 27F.  

It's been alternating between snow and sleet and a mix and coming down moderately.  As of 2 pm, we're up to 3/4" of "new" sleet (with some snow) and the other table has 1.5" on it, as it should (had 3/4" of pure snow until 10 am).  Up to 28F from 27F.

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6 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Hrrr has trended a few degrees colder the last few runs. Freezing rain north of the city is a real possibility 

 

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Maybe they can hold onto the sleet.

I sure hope so. It's been pounding sleet here for 90 minutes now and was a sleet/snow mix for about that long before and all snow before that. There's now a bit less than 3" of slurry that sux to even walk in. It's 18* so if it did flip to frzg rain everything will turn into a solid block of ugliness.

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25 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I dont know how unexpected it is.  The warm nose is between 825-700 for the most part.  That's about right.

 

Think sleet is the predominant p type, but the further south you go, the quicker the waa in the 850-925 layer, so higher risk for a period of zr before plain rain this evening/overnight. 

Thanks, glad to hear that.  Zr is my (and many others) biggest concern.

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Take a look at the traffic graphic  So, while this storm has clearly been a bust for many for pure snowfall amounts, the sleet has been hellacious and now looks like it might hold on past the 3-4 pm expected changeover to rain, at least for much of the 95 corridor NE of maybe Princeton. HRRR doesn't have the NB-NYC corridor out of the sleet until 5-6 pm for NB/Edison and until 7-8 pm in NYC and show at least a couple of hours of possible freezing rain (but very hard to predict that accurately) before maybe 1/2" of plain rain.

While most folks in the 95 corridor and outside of the warned counties in the area probably only got 1" or less of pure snow, most of these folks have likely gotten about an inch of sleet, so far (3.3" of "snow equivalent for a total of 4+" of snow equivalent so far). As I've said a few times, sleet's impact is likely to be similar to snow's, as we're getting the same mass and impact is largely based on mass (for plowing/shoveling/driving; visibility is worse in snow), plus sleet melts more slowly than snow and so salt is less effective on it. 

Not surprisingly, roads are a mess, area wide, as per the map and only a mess north of 276/195, where the snow/sleet has fallen (and not S of there where it's been mostly rain).  So maybe a bust for "pure snow" but not a bust at all for impact. IMO and the "nothing burger" crowd needs to admit defeat.  And it will likely get even worse, especially if we top things off with some ZR.  

https://twitter.com/nymetrowx/status/1095385429078142978/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1095385429078142978&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fnymetrowx%2Fstatus%2F1095385429078142978

 

DzOXH1mWsAIvlBK.jpg

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Totals so far

CONNECTICUT

...Fairfield County...
   Danbury                2.5   115 PM  2/12  Public
   Bethel                 2.5   130 PM  2/12  Social Media
   New Canaan             1.7   220 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Bridgeport Airport     1.5   100 PM  2/12  Co-Op Observer

...New Haven County...
   North Haven            2.5   235 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   West Haven             2.1   130 PM  2/12  Public
   Seymour                2.0   125 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Guilford               2.0   130 PM  2/12  Co-Op Observer

...New London County...
   Ledyard Center         1.5   230 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   New London             1.0   230 PM  2/12  CoCoRaHS

NEW JERSEY

...Bergen County...
   Ridgewood              1.3   100 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Franklin Lakes         1.1   100 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   East Rutherford        0.5  1130 AM  2/12  Trained Spotter

...Essex County...
   Cedar Grove            1.6   130 PM  2/12  Public

...Hudson County...
   Hoboken                1.0   100 PM  2/12  Public
   Harrison               0.5   230 PM  2/12  Co-Op Observer

...Union County...
   Newark Airport         1.2   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer

NEW YORK

...Kings County...
   1 SSW Bergen Beach     1.0  1245 PM  2/12  NYC OEM CERT

...New York County...
   Central Park           1.0   200 PM  2/12  Park Conservancy

...Orange County...
   New Windsor            2.4   130 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Monroe                 2.0  1237 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter

...Queens County...
   Rego Park              1.0   130 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   NYC/LaGuardia Airpor   0.8   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer
   NYC/JFK Airport        0.8   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer

...Suffolk County...
   Mattituck              2.5   130 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Ridge                  2.0   135 PM  2/12  Social Media
   Upton                  1.4   100 PM  2/12  NWS Office
   Yaphank                1.3   125 PM  2/12  Public
   Islip Airport          1.2   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer
   Babylon                1.0  1200 PM  2/12  Social Media
   Central Islip          0.5   130 PM  2/12  Social Media

...Westchester County...
   Larchmont              1.3   150 PM  2/12  Public
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6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Take a look at the traffic graphic  So, while this storm has clearly been a bust for many for pure snowfall amounts, the sleet has been hellacious and now looks like it might hold on past the 3-4 pm expected changeover to rain, at least for much of the 95 corridor NE of maybe Princeton. HRRR doesn't have the NB-NYC corridor out of the sleet until 5-6 pm for NB/Edison and until 7-8 pm in NYC and show at least a couple of hours of possible freezing rain (but very hard to predict that accurately) before maybe 1/2" of plain rain.

While most folks in the 95 corridor and outside of the warned counties in the area probably only got 1" or less of pure snow, most of these folks have likely gotten about an inch of sleet, so far (3.3" of "snow equivalent for a total of 4+" of snow equivalent so far). As I've said a few times, sleet's impact is likely to be similar to snow's, as we're getting the same mass and impact is largely based on mass (for plowing/shoveling/driving; visibility is worse in snow), plus sleet melts more slowly than snow and so salt is less effective on it. 

Not surprisingly, roads are a mess, area wide, as per the map and only a mess north of 276/195, where the snow/sleet has fallen (and not S of there where it's been mostly rain).  So maybe a bust for "pure snow" but not a bust at all for impact. IMO and the "nothing burger" crowd needs to admit defeat.  And it will likely get even worse, especially if we top things off with some ZR.  

https://twitter.com/nymetrowx/status/1095385429078142978/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1095385429078142978&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fnymetrowx%2Fstatus%2F1095385429078142978

 

DzOXH1mWsAIvlBK.jpg

 It was quite bad earlier in New Brunswick but the salters were out and the Rutgers grounds people were keeping on top of things. My concern is the classes that end in the evening.

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45 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

1036 mb highs tend to be stubborn to give up their cold air at the sfc.  So far, nothing telling me we see most of Manhattan north go above freezing anytime soon.

You'll see some occasional bursts of snow but this is a sleet dominant storm and will remain so.

Think theres a period of ZR this evening, but the warm nose is elevated enough that this *should* mostly be sleet.  

Models usually get cad wrong.

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6 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Are you there?  Have heard only reports of snow/sleet from northern Mercer. 

 

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Totals so far


CONNECTICUT

...Fairfield County...
   Danbury                2.5   115 PM  2/12  Public
   Bethel                 2.5   130 PM  2/12  Social Media
   New Canaan             1.7   220 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Bridgeport Airport     1.5   100 PM  2/12  Co-Op Observer

...New Haven County...
   North Haven            2.5   235 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   West Haven             2.1   130 PM  2/12  Public
   Seymour                2.0   125 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Guilford               2.0   130 PM  2/12  Co-Op Observer

...New London County...
   Ledyard Center         1.5   230 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   New London             1.0   230 PM  2/12  CoCoRaHS

NEW JERSEY

...Bergen County...
   Ridgewood              1.3   100 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Franklin Lakes         1.1   100 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   East Rutherford        0.5  1130 AM  2/12  Trained Spotter

...Essex County...
   Cedar Grove            1.6   130 PM  2/12  Public

...Hudson County...
   Hoboken                1.0   100 PM  2/12  Public
   Harrison               0.5   230 PM  2/12  Co-Op Observer

...Union County...
   Newark Airport         1.2   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer

NEW YORK

...Kings County...
   1 SSW Bergen Beach     1.0  1245 PM  2/12  NYC OEM CERT

...New York County...
   Central Park           1.0   200 PM  2/12  Park Conservancy

...Orange County...
   New Windsor            2.4   130 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Monroe                 2.0  1237 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter

...Queens County...
   Rego Park              1.0   130 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   NYC/LaGuardia Airpor   0.8   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer
   NYC/JFK Airport        0.8   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer

...Suffolk County...
   Mattituck              2.5   130 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Ridge                  2.0   135 PM  2/12  Social Media
   Upton                  1.4   100 PM  2/12  NWS Office
   Yaphank                1.3   125 PM  2/12  Public
   Islip Airport          1.2   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer
   Babylon                1.0  1200 PM  2/12  Social Media
   Central Islip          0.5   130 PM  2/12  Social Media

...Westchester County...
   Larchmont              1.3   150 PM  2/12  Public

I was wrong on this storm----I predicted a changeover to rain early--instead it went to sleet and stayed as sleet.  Probably about .5 inch snow

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Just now, jfklganyc said:

Live drive Adirondacks to Westchester

 

Snow began at Glens Falls

Heavy snow in Capital Region

Sleet mxing at Windham

All sleet at Saugerties

 

Road conditions bad north of Saugerties

Much improved with sleet

How can you say with a clear conscious that roads are much improved with sleet... LOL

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20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Totals so far


CONNECTICUT

...Fairfield County...
   Danbury                2.5   115 PM  2/12  Public
   Bethel                 2.5   130 PM  2/12  Social Media
   New Canaan             1.7   220 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Bridgeport Airport     1.5   100 PM  2/12  Co-Op Observer

...New Haven County...
   North Haven            2.5   235 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   West Haven             2.1   130 PM  2/12  Public
   Seymour                2.0   125 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Guilford               2.0   130 PM  2/12  Co-Op Observer

...New London County...
   Ledyard Center         1.5   230 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   New London             1.0   230 PM  2/12  CoCoRaHS

NEW JERSEY

...Bergen County...
   Ridgewood              1.3   100 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Franklin Lakes         1.1   100 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   East Rutherford        0.5  1130 AM  2/12  Trained Spotter

...Essex County...
   Cedar Grove            1.6   130 PM  2/12  Public

...Hudson County...
   Hoboken                1.0   100 PM  2/12  Public
   Harrison               0.5   230 PM  2/12  Co-Op Observer

...Union County...
   Newark Airport         1.2   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer

NEW YORK

...Kings County...
   1 SSW Bergen Beach     1.0  1245 PM  2/12  NYC OEM CERT

...New York County...
   Central Park           1.0   200 PM  2/12  Park Conservancy

...Orange County...
   New Windsor            2.4   130 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Monroe                 2.0  1237 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter

...Queens County...
   Rego Park              1.0   130 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   NYC/LaGuardia Airpor   0.8   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer
   NYC/JFK Airport        0.8   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer

...Suffolk County...
   Mattituck              2.5   130 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Ridge                  2.0   135 PM  2/12  Social Media
   Upton                  1.4   100 PM  2/12  NWS Office
   Yaphank                1.3   125 PM  2/12  Public
   Islip Airport          1.2   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer
   Babylon                1.0  1200 PM  2/12  Social Media
   Central Islip          0.5   130 PM  2/12  Social Media

...Westchester County...
   Larchmont              1.3   150 PM  2/12  Public

1 inch for the park. .8 for the aiports, upton on twitter this morning had 3-6.  Also had 5 inches at White Plains this MORNING.  These totals are spot on what I predicted on Sunday.  I mean its not even close.

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If, like me, you haven't been paying attention to the medium term, due to today's storm, take a look at the Feb thread.  You'll thank me.  Just about all of today's 12Z global models (including the Euro) show multiple winter weather threats on the table for 2/16 and 2/20 (and beyond). The 2/16 system isn't that far off, either (potential 2-4/3-5" event).  

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

It's been alternating between snow and sleet and a mix and coming down moderately.  As of 2 pm, we're up to 3/4" of "new" sleet (with some snow) and the other table has 1.5" on it, as it should (had 3/4" of pure snow until 10 am).  Up to 28F from 27F.

Not much the last hour or so. Up to a total of 1.6" of snow/sleet from 1.5" an hour ago, but heavy precip is on our doorstep. Should still be sleet, I believe, but temps are up to 29F now and 32F temps are only about 15 miles from us now, so it's possible we'll get to 32F in the next couple of hours. It's also possible we'll have some freezing rain before then. The only saving grace there is that it wouldn't be accumulating on bare ground/pavement for the most part, so would hopefully not become a sheet of ice if it fell.

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