dryslot Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The pope, Delivering some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I going heavier on snow deeper cold, high FGEN, more intense lift precip .5 to .8 with ratios before sleet contamination, very little ice Ratios in a SWFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The ship has sailed on the coastal saving the day. mmm 'pends on what one means by 'day saving' If snow? ...that ship sailed 10 days ago. I don't think other than that one historic bomb run of the 18z GFS four days ago, this ever looked like a snow storm. That said, the amount of secondary being depicted is saving though - whether the models 'see' the boundary layer or not, the low skirting just S of RI is going to slam the door shut on just liquid penetrating N of the CT/RI/MA nexus. The wind NW of PVD is going to be N below about 920 mb or so, regardless of what the models are indicating with those pressure pattern curves. That's ZR... So, if by saving we mean "just rain" versus something else? It's a pretty good savior as is - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 20 minutes ago, weathafella said: What? Harv backed way off that as we got closer. I’d take Harvey’s forecast tomorrow evening to the bank. I didn’t see Burbank’s map but latitude should play better than what is being depicted. I'd take Harv over anyone, but he struggled in that event. Key is to not have to backpedal imo. It was clear he was too aggressive early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: mmm 'pends on what one means by 'day saving' If snow? ...that ship sailed 10 days ago. I don't think other than that one historic bomb run of the 18z GFS four days ago, this ever looked like a snow storm. That said, the amount of secondary being depicted is saving though - whether the models 'see' the boundary layer or not, the low is going to slam the door shot on just liquid penetrating N of the CT/RI/MA nexus. The wind NW of PVD is going to be N below about 920 mb or so, regardless of what the models are indicating with those pressure pattern curves. That's ZR... So, if by saving we mean "just rain" versus something else? It's a pretty good savior as is - Yes...snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes...snow. Well... okay... then it's still not a loss and some saving is happening (haha) seriously though...if we front end 4-8" across the area...then transition to PL/ZR...that snow isn't going anywhere. But I know what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I'm think 8" here just away from the coast before change to another sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Well... okay... then it's still not a loss and some saving is happening (haha) seriously though...if we front end 4-8" across the area...then transition to PL/ZR...that snow isn't going anywhere. But I know what you mean. Yea, I just meant "saving the day" within the context of snowfall. No one is doubting colder outcomes at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We will see. You have been humping the NAM this year with good results. I am thinking the whole column stays colder longer. 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe. It def had a bit more qpf as snow down here regardless of the final northern extent of the mix. I mean we’re still dealing with the NAM in its synoptically challenged time frame. Yeah Steve, I trust it more with the mid level temps in these when we get inside 24-36hrs, but if it’s off synoptically beyond 48hr that could obviously affect thermals and the WCB. It’s clearly 3hr slower with the dryslot on this run so I’m not taking anything from it verbatim. I’ve just been giving friends and fam the typical climo for these...expect 6-10” and probably some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I mean we’re still dealing with the NAM in its synoptically challenged time frame. Yeah Steve, I trust it more with the mid level temps in these when we get inside 24-36hrs, but if it’s off synoptically beyond 48hr that could obviously affect thermals and the WCB. It’s clearly 3hr slower with the dryslot on this run so I’m not taking anything from it verbatim. I’ve just been giving friends and fam the typical climo for these...expect 6-10” and probably some sleet. What are you giving your fam in CT? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What are you giving your fam in CT? Eggs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What are you giving your fam in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Litchfield Libations? Isn't he in Fairfield? Maybe it's Milford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 gfs looked a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: gfs looked a bit colder. With a deepening 981L in Lake Erie, 5mb deeper than 06. Important? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 That is one healthy dump on the 12 GFS into Southern Maine and points NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: With a deepening 981L in Lake Erie, 5mb deeper than 06. Important? Maybe it’s negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Nice snow here on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: That is one healthy dump on the 12 GFS into Southern Maine and points NE. It ingested Metamucil into the grids 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Litchfield Libations? Isn't he in Fairfield? Maybe it's Milford. He was in Fairfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: It ingested Metamucil into the grids And sprayed it all over Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 GGEM tracks the low right up powderfreaks fanny via ALB. Was about time we had a model try that maneuver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 And i would have bet the house it would be that one to do it...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GGEM tracks the low right up powderfreaks fanny via ALB. Was about time we had a model try that maneuver. GEM a perfect candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 MAV-8 muthufukkas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM tracks the low right up powderfreaks fanny via ALB. Was about time we had a model try that maneuver. 10mb deeper than 00z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM tracks the low right up powderfreaks fanny via ALB. Was about time we had a model try that maneuver. Yeah lol that snow map is a disaster. 12z GFS was beautiful for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 12z GFS was 6"+ even to the coast. And MPM can stop worrying with 14" . Most of us would take this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: 12z GFS was 6"+ even to the coast. And MPM can stop worrying with 14" . Most of us would take this. Yeah, Who wouldn't like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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