mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Check the Hourly Weather Graph, you have plenty of snow in the 12 hour Tuesday night period. I have no idea why it splits hairs with the "possibly mixed with snow". The zones are often confusing and I just focus on the discussions and snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Check the Hourly Weather Graph, you have plenty of snow in the 12 hour Tuesday night period. I have no idea why it splits hairs with the "possibly mixed with snow". I've never really looked at those before.....looks pretty ugly for Pit1 with a ton of non-snow if I'm reading it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: I've never really looked at those before.....looks pretty ugly for Pit1 with a ton of non-snow if I'm reading it correctly. It's at least a direct output of what is in the forecast grids. The P&C is just a computer interpretation of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: It's at least a direct output of what is in the forecast grids. The P&C is just a computer interpretation of it. If it plays as I"m reading it, looks like the lower end of the range is possible is where I'd top out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: ftw. Good first map. Only critique is areas that stay all snow should end up closer to 12” imo. Portland, to Rochester NH down to Manchester NH look to be in best spots for this, as of now. JMO. Thinking things continue to tick colder, especially once inside 24 hrs. Baseline forecast is to have the secondary track over south coast MA, but I’m def hedging that South. Imo better chance it develops earlier/faster and tracks near/over the cape, than the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I've never really looked at those before.....looks pretty ugly for Pit1 with a ton of non-snow if I'm reading it correctly. I look at those all the time recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Benjamin and I were in very good agreement last night. Are you all rains to Maine’s Friday/ Sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: If it plays as I"m reading it, looks like the lower end of the range is possible is where I'd top out. Yeah, looking like a 4-6" based on that hourly output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Are you all rains to Maine’s Friday/ Sat? Lot of rains to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, jbenedet said: Good first map. Only critique is areas that stay all snow should end up closer to 12” imo. Portland, to Rochester NH down to Manchester NH look to be in best spots for this, as of now. JMO. Thinking things continue to tick colder, especially once inside 24 hrs. Baseline forecast is to have the secondary track over south coast MA, but I’m def hedging that South. Imo better chance it develops earlier/faster and tracks near/over the cape, than the opposite. I think someone may get a foot, but it's hard to do it on a widespread basis when there is no closed low to our SE. 850 mb tries, but too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, jbenedet said: Good first map. Only critique is areas that stay all snow should end up closer to 12” imo. Portland, to Rochester NH down to Manchester NH look to be in best spots for this, as of now. JMO. Thinking things continue to tick colder, especially once inside 24 hrs. Baseline forecast is to have the secondary track over south coast MA, but I’m def hedging that South. Imo better chance it develops earlier/faster and tracks near/over the cape, than the opposite. What makes you think it will tick cooler? Hopefully that'll be the case in NW Mass. Better yet would be having the end-of-week system do a major shift--but that ain't happening, James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 Overnight guidance pretty much holding steady. Looks like model noise overall to be quote honest. Not a solution I care for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I think someone may get a foot, but it's hard to do it on a widespread basis when there is no closed low to our SE. 850 mb tries, but too late. We’ll relatively torch aloft too. I’m sticking to climo on this since we won’t have redeveloped H7/H85 centers yet. 6-10” with normal SWFE ratios and maybe even a changeover to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: We’ll relatively torch aloft too. I’m sticking to climo on this since we won’t have redeveloped H7/H85 centers yet. 6-10” with normal SWFE ratios and maybe even a changeover to sleet. That's pretty much where I'm at. And I'm definitely regretting posting anything about snow on our social media this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Lot of rains to Maine. Barring the funny 06z gfs, that deluge and warm temps will decimate whatever we get on Tues/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Barring the funny 06z gfs, that deluge and warm temps will decimate whatever we get on Tues/Wed. I have a sump pump now , so bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I’d be more cautious on snow totals and Here is why this is the 10’th time a primary has cut west of us (maybe actually 11-12’th time) we are bombarded with mid level warmth. nam handles mid level temps with most accurate timing and its not close on SWFE’s. look @ nam soundings . Monitor those SNE to KASH is torched by 0z Wednesday by that time .35-.45 precip has fallen besides a bias for wanting more snow bc it feels better to imagine (not joking lol) why go against nam mid level temps in SWFE....for SNE to SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I have a sump pump now , so bring it. Well that’s reassuring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I have a sump pump now , so bring it. With some sudden leak issues around our chimney--which we mistakenly thought were fixed following our discovery of it after one of the first soaking rain storms of this non-winter season--I don't want it brought at all. This is not something we want to deal with 6 days before our scheduled closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’d be more cautious on snow totals and Here is why this is the 10’th time a primary has cut west of us (maybe actually 11-12’th time) we are bombarded with mid level warmth. nam handles mid level temps with most accurate timing and its not close on SWFE’s. look @ nam soundings . Monitor those SNE to KASH is torched by 0z Wednesday besides a bias for wanting more snow bc it feels better to imagine (not joking lol) why go against nam mid level temps in SWFE.... NAM gets sleet well into Quebec. Might be possible but it's still a bit out of its wheelhouse. I'll want to see it inside of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: NAM gets sleet well into Quebec. Might be possible but it's still a bit out of its wheelhouse. I'll want to see it inside of 36 hours. Definitely but those are the soundings I’ll be monitoring and weighing most heavily in mid levels this thing is a strengthening system as it cuts NE thru Detroit I would just be cautious on initial forecasts is all 2-4 south of pike and 3-6 From ASH south at this moment is my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: What makes you think it will tick cooler? Hopefully that'll be the case in NW Mass. Better yet would be having the end-of-week system do a major shift--but that ain't happening, James. I’m noticing a trend across guidance for the primary to close off later at H5. To me that means the chance is increasing over time for an earlier pop of the coastal low. I also anticipate the low level CAD due to that surface high strength/position will be more significant than modeled—even all the way down to the Mid Atlantic at 48 hrs. Expecting to see cold air damning —upper 20’s down to central Virginia wouldn’t surprise me at 12z Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: With some sudden leak issues around our chimney--which we mistakenly thought were fixed following one of the first soaking rain storms of this non-winter season, I don't want it brought at all. This is not something we want to deal with 6 days before our scheduled closing. Just half joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Can't lose this season apparently.... Looks like the EURO/GGEM/GFS all have over 1" QPF as snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I’m noticing a trend across guidance for the primary to close off later at H5. To me that means the chance is increasing over time for an earlier pop of the coastal low. I also anticipate the low level CAD due to that surface high strength/position will be more significant than modeled—even all the way down to the Mid Atlantic at 48 hrs. Expecting to see cold air damning —upper 20’s down to central Virginia wouldn’t surprise me at 12z Tuesday... Thanks--my concern was that the primary looks to continue to deepen suggesting a later redevelopment. 1 minute ago, WthrJunkyME said: Just half joking. Whatever it takes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 You guys are off the rails . Solid 6 to 10 Rt 2 south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Can't lose this season apparently.... Looks like the EURO/GGEM/GFS all have over 1" QPF as snow. Your fortunes may turn in the late-week disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Can't lose this season apparently.... Looks like the EURO/GGEM/GFS all have over 1" QPF as snow. Mansfield might pick up 3 feet by the time dawn appears next Mon morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Can't lose this season apparently.... Looks like the EURO/GGEM/GFS all have over 1" QPF as snow. Just wait for Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: You guys are off the rails . Solid 6 to 10 Rt 2 south. Do you mean north? I'd see 6" as far more likely than 7or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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