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WxUSAF

February 10-12, 2019 Storm

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23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Amazing in 2018, only God know how much ?!$&@ will be on the ground by Tuesday.  Can only laugh harder looking at the long range thread...But I still love guessing!!!!

:huh:

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12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Came South with the frozed

Looks worse on the southern fringe to me. 

Edit: 12z looked better for dc and surrounding burbs than 18z  

65AEFA30-9ED1-44E6-8C55-DEF0C3919897.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Looks worse on the southern fringe to me. 

Edit: 12z looked better for dc and surrounding burbs than 18z  

65AEFA30-9ED1-44E6-8C55-DEF0C3919897.jpeg

What does the Kuchera map look like? I would assume that counts sleet and zr as sleet and zr.

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I suppose we should continue discussing there.

Lots of great IPAs for sure- but the DFH 120 is the holy grail. Its defo not for everyone, but there is no other with the insane combo of hops and barley- and ultimately abv, that it has.

It is my favorite beer. Way too smooth for what it contains. There are many, many beers with far less of everything (ABV, hops, malt, etc.) that are far harsher. It's black magic.

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3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I wouldnt say slopfest at least for me more frozen then liquid precipitation for me

Yes south central PA should be ok

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Yeah Harrisburg is a bit too far removed from this subforum's boundary. I get it if someone is right across the border, but central PA has much different climo from most of us.

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0z 12k nam looks good for wave one. Snow for northern tier. Mix everyone else. Mix line further south through 29hrs. Surface and 850’s look slightly better. 

Edit...north of Baltimore is really gonna like this Nam run I think...

snow dc north through 39hrs...dare I say a nam’ing in progress? 

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11 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

0z 12k nam looks good for wave one. Snow for northern tier. Mix everyone else. Mix line further south through 29hrs. Surface and 850’s look slightly better. 

Edit...north of Baltimore is really gonna like this Nam run I think...

snow dc north through 39hrs...dare I say a nam’ing in progress? 

850s look about 30-50 miles south at :9 hours.   Good trends as we close in...

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I’m thinking for this type of system, the positive snow depth change maps may be more accurate on accumulations than the 10:1 clown maps. That said, clearly the NAM is still a great run for Baltimore-north 

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3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I’m thinking for this type of system, the positive snow depth change maps may be more accurate on accumulations than the 10:1 clown maps. That said, clearly the NAM is still a great run for Baltimore-north 

Yeah, not bad. 

namconus_asnowd_neus_fh57_trend.gif

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Looks like the model is showing reinforcing cold air draining in Monday evening as discussed by Sterling NWS in their late afternoon discussion.  If that verifies we are talking surface temps near freezing through Tuesday am and some potentially serious ice/ snow for both Monday rush hours and Tuesday am.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm fully entering IMBY mode but 3k NAM has .25" of FRZA down in Charlottesville too... temps are iffy but maybe.

zr_acc.us_ma.png

Need a victory after that Duke loss.

imo...temps will be very dependent on precip rates monday. If precip stays overhead temps will have a hard time reaching the mid-thirties. Same thing with Sunday night. If precip comes in heavy, with dews in the teens, temps will mostly likely drop into the upper 20's. If we can get that it would make Monday's mid-thirties hard to come by...

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm fully entering IMBY mode but 3k NAM has .25" of FRZA down in Charlottesville too... temps are iffy but maybe.

zr_acc.us_ma.png

Need a victory after that Duke loss.

Dude.  UVA played a very good game.  Duke is super talented and made everything they jacked up from long range.  And we were still in it. Big test on Monday night

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9 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

12k NAM has 1.00"+ QPF here through hr 57.  All frozen.

Nam looks Great. Warning criteria snow and ice. 24 hours of snow then 15 hours of ice on top.

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