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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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Gfs Hour 114 looks like a better cad signal . High is more expansive overhead . Hopefully a good hit for Wed

Confluence overall looks better for sure . Beat  that se ridge lol.

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1 hour ago, MountainGeek said:

Does the old GFS just go away entirely when that happens? Sometimes it has been nice to have as a data point with its known biases. 

I've seen comments to the effect that the FV3 has a bias towards keeping heights lower than they should be, which can make it tend to favor snow. Last thing we need for the MA is more fantasy digital snow in the med/long range. 

So, basically a higher resolution version of the DGEX.  That's great for digital snow, not so much for actual snow.

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Gfs Hour 114 looks like a better cad signal . High is more expansive overhead . Hopefully a good hit for Wed

Almost looks banana high-ish at 126?

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs Hour 114 looks like a better cad signal . High is more expansive overhead . Hopefully a good hit for Wed

Confluence overall looks better for sure . Beat  that se ridge lol.

The ridge looks worse though.  Pushing even further west.  

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

The ridge looks worse though.  Pushing even further west.  

That's the whole problem...we ain't got nothin' to beat it back with! I mean...are we already out of time for a save, here? (since it already looks this bad with the se ridge)

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

That's the whole problem...we ain't got nothin' to beat it back with! I mean...are we already out of time for a save, here? (since it already looks this bad with the se ridge)

140+ hrs is an eternity.  I wouldn't could it or anything out yet.

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46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And that has been the most frustrating part of this winter up to this point: everybody is baffled and it absolutely sucks. How can we have even reasonable confidence in LR forecasting (even 2 weeks or sooner) going forward? Been absolutely useless this year--I want some answers (even if they come later after the season is over)

It's only frustrating because for our area the winter didn't live up to expectations.  I didn't hear anyone complaining in 2014 when most expected a mediocre at best winter and it was snowing constantly from early December to April.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's only frustrating because for our area the winter didn't live up to expectations.  I didn't hear anyone complaining in 2014 when most expected a mediocre at best winter and it was snowing constantly from early December to April.  

Was the LR constantly wrong (except in the positive direction) back then too? It's not the early winter calls that bother me most...but the weeklies, and even patterns two weeks out that mostly flopped. And again...was the met community in general as baffled by that winter as they seem to be by this one?

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That ridge tho. Wheres Chuck?

He's using the 8 bit maps on NOAA to analyze the meso-low in Botswana that will ultimately lead to a -PNA induced NAO

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25 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Yeah, it would be interesting to see why the LR guidance consistently got it wrong this year.

My best guess is for the same reasons the humans got it wrong.  90% of seasonal forecasts made assumptions about the winter pattern that weighted the modoki nino pretty heavily.  Usually that is a good bet as enso is a major pattern driver.  However, and in hindsight maybe this wasn't given enough attention, when the nino is weak there is a higher instance of other pattern influences overriding and not getting the typical nino pattern.  That is what seems to have happened this year.  We spent the majority of winter in MJO phases that are more typical of a nina than a nino and so we ended up with some weird hybrid pattern with some components of both mixed in.   It appears to me that the numerical guidance continuously tried to get the pattern to what the classic modoki nino analogs looked like.  So probably they were making the same mistake.  At range...as the current pattern "wore off" and the guidance struggled to see whatever OTHER factors were affecting the pattern...the guidance would over weight the enso and go right to the modoki nino look.  Then would constantly adjust around day 10 when it became apparent and they could see the affect of those other influences.  But as for why the guidance was unable to see those other factors and weight them correct I have no idea.  But the humans weren't any better so it seems petty to be too critical of the NWP when it's only as good as the people who program it!

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's only frustrating because for our area the winter didn't live up to expectations.  I didn't hear anyone complaining in 2014 when most expected a mediocre at best winter and it was snowing constantly from early December to April.  

Yep. This winter, if nothing really changes over the next month, would typically be like a C grade, but I would give it an F because of how much it failed compared to hype/expectations.

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The um...ICON pummels us, followed by a deluge.   

 

I'm talking about the ICON.   Desperation level: 11

It's actually ZR signal past the initial snow. Temps in the 20's to near 30 when the rain hits :yikes:

I hate the precip algorithm on TT for the Icon. I also just hate the Icon

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's only frustrating because for our area the winter didn't live up to expectations.  I didn't hear anyone complaining in 2014 when most expected a mediocre at best winter and it was snowing constantly from early December to April.  

True enough...and it's not only our area that has been frustrated or disappointed this year.  While nobody was complaining in 2013-14 of course, what was the guidance like then?  Not the signals that long-rangers looked at early on which may have indicated that year would be mediocre...but as time went on through the winter.  I honestly don't recall how the models did then in either the short or medium range then.

I think perhaps the most frustrating thing this year is that the guidance consistently has shown very good looks in the medium range, only to gradually fall apart.  And other signals such as the MJO even were indicated to go into favorable phases, but the response has been less than desirable, apparently.  And it wasn't just one model going wild with good looks, it was mostly across the board.  Very difficult year in that regard, it almost makes one want to throw up your hands in even attempting to estimate the week 2 period.  As you were asking the other day (don't know if anyone had an answer yet?), what the heck is causing the inconsistent response to what should be highly favorable MJO phases in the east?

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2013-14 had a lot of complaining early on from those who missed out on those northern events. I don't completely blame them. But later on, it ended up being a great winter for everyone.

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Something not getting any attention but its hurting us is the trend towards a slower system.  That is a big deal when the cold is weak and retreating.  There are other problems, the failure of any of the systems this weekend to bomb and create suppressive flow behind it, the trend of the 50/50 to end up further northeast in how it is oriented, more ridging...but equally a problem is this is now a full day slower than it was 72 hours ago.  

Latest run for 6z Wednesday

precip hasn't even moved in yet

gfs1.thumb.png.e44fd1fdfc5e2d1b038fcedcb05aa9f1.png

a day ago

storm is well underway at the same time

gfs2.thumb.png.6d78441f3ae7f51a23c733dbbd4fdab4.png

3 days ago

storm is over and already off the map lol

gfs3.thumb.png.548a4e3d1373015f0e8b12ac33317011.png

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18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's actually ZR signal past the initial snow. Temps in the 20's to near 30 when the rain hits :yikes:

I hate the precip algorithm on TT for the Icon. I also just hate the Icon

I think the ICON overdoes cold surface temps. The overall track and progression of the storm doesn't look like hours and hours of 28 degree zr to me, especially with the high moving off the coast. 

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Just now, Fozz said:

I think the ICON overdoes cold surface temps. The overall track and progression of the storm doesn't look like hours and hours of 28 degree zr to me. But I'm just an amateur.

ICON actually did OK with surface temps the other day, I never made it above freezing the whole storm.  Wish I had.  Lost a huge pine tree and a ton of large branches.  I have some major cleaning up to do once the snow melts.  

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18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's actually ZR signal past the initial snow. Temps in the 20's to near 30 when the rain hits :yikes:

I hate the precip algorithm on TT for the Icon. I also just hate the Icon

This

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CMC is 2 big ol cutter rainstorms.  Not even close.  
We roll with that. It's most likely of outcomes even if it's the cmc. Let's move on to next rain events

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Something not getting any attention but its hurting us is the trend towards a slower system.  That is a big deal when the cold is weak and retreating.  There are other problems, the failure of any of the systems this weekend to bomb and create suppressive flow behind it, the trend of the 50/50 to end up further northeast in how it is oriented, more ridging...but equally a problem is this is now a full day slower than it was 72 hours ago. 

So it was already a tough go before...but now that it's slower? Yikes...Are we already at the point of no return? Lol

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

CMC is 2 big ol cutter rainstorms.  Not even close.  

It was a precarious set up to begin with, and has only trended worse over the past couple days. This is probably the most likely outcome.

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Sorry to dump this during the 12z model suite but schedule is off today.

The SOI has gone solidly negative and the MJO is now into Phase 8 for 2 straight days.  So the progression didn't fail completely.  But there might be some hints why we are not getting the response we need.  

There was a mention the other day that to get the response to a specific mjo phase we actually need it to progress into the NEXT phase.  So we would get phase 8 if the wave is progressing into phase 1.  I looked into that and I found several other sources saying the same thing so this seems to have merit.  Apparently a stalled MJO tends to continue the expected pattern of the previous phase often.  The CMC and GEFS products stall the mjo is phase 8 and cycle it around there.  But that would make sense why we continue to be stuck in a phase 7 look for the next 2 weeks.  

Additionally look at the actual forcing charts for the GEFS.  It makes sense that it had a great look for around the 20th and degraded it over the last week...look what it was forecasting for the tropical forcing then vs now

oldGEFSmjo.thumb.png.60be0800f69e82f88c439d152b4f1dc0.png

That was a very strong phase 8/1 look, even if the chart didn't show it

But look at the latest run

newgefsmjosignal.thumb.png.b3c2b78bb164cd63f25a04cd31a7560c.png

This is ambiguous and kind of a non signal (its not a bad look...but not one that would bully the pattern either)

So it would make sense that the GEFS shifted away from a great look that would align with a strong mjo phase 8/1 and into an ambiguous pattern look late.

The EPS makes less sense.  It progresses the wave through phase 8 to 1 but it also continues to have a lag with a phase 7 look until very late in the run.

euroMJOgood.gif.febf508071f337239cff5e9b33669448.gif

I know that is the non bias corrected but that IS what the euro is forecasting so the pattern should align to that.  That is a good looking mjo progression.  

Maybe this is error...maybe just maybe the eps is playing into its bias and the other guidance is just wrong with the mjo.  Maybe...

As for where the indexes go.  The SOI looks to remain negative the next week.  After that it becomes more ambiguous but not hostile.   At that point the damage should have been done with the negative burst though.  

I do think the GEFS and CMC are wrong with the mjo.  They have continued to adjust every day then go off the rails after a few days.  Right now the GEFS and EPS mjo are identical for the next 5 days....then the GEFS starts to diverge.  It has been doing that and wrong for a month.  It goes off on a tangent after only a few days and continually corrects one day further each day.  No reason to think it is correct now.  

BTW no shock the CFS is the best look in the long range given this mjo look. 

CFSgood.gif.f5ddf679496e2041d16e563fa3a558a0.gif

This would override any negative other influences imo so if the CFS scores the coup on the mjo maybe the other guidance adjusts...but that seems a tall order.  NOTHING else supports this level of amplitude with the mjo wave next week.  

The conclusion:  On the whole the pacific tropical forcing looks favorable.  Perhaps not perfect... the mjo wave becomes more ambiguous then I would like but in general the forcing is AROUND phases 8/1 and there is subsidence over the maritime continent and the soi remains negative.  Perhaps we see guidance finally response for a better period in March but I have just about given up for week 2 as the -PNA SE ridge look to dominate regardless of the pacific forcing.  

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