NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I've been spamming this thread so I'll chill out but look at this FRZA output. this is on top of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: hey bob....im going to try to be positive a bit. Looking at yesterdays run...where the high was off the coast....this is in a much better place for todays run. Noticed the same thing...get that high to trens stronger the next few runs and we might be even more in business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The overall takeaway is that there has been remarkable run to run agreement between the GFS and Euro and their ensembles about a significant threat next Tues-Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now looking under the hood, what has room to trend in our favor to make this a mostly snow event? (Stronger 50/50? And would we have to pull off a colder solution without a -NAO?) We're just going to have to wait awhile. There are 3 shortwaves in front of the potential and none of those 3 are resolved yet. Potential is there. Mixed event is favored. And any outcome is possible. That won't change until probably sometime this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Noticed the same thing...get that high to trens stronger the next few runs and we might be even more in business! This is a good lesson for midlevel panels. Look at the wind barbs. See where south meets north way up in VT/NH? That's where the confluence is. WAY too far north for us to get an all snow event. It's equally as important to track the trend with confluence as it is with high pressure placement. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Yeah, as someone else mentioned, this looks to me like Vday 2007. It was a nice event, but could've been much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: This is a good lesson for midlevel panels. Look at the wind barbs. See where south meets north way up in VT/NH? That's where the confluence is. WAY too far north for us to get an all snow event. It's equally as important to track the trend with confluence as it is with high pressure placement. About those wind barbs.... at which level should I be looking at? 850mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We're just going to have to wait awhile. There are 3 shortwaves in front of the potential and none of those 3 are resolved yet. Potential is there. Mixed event is favored. And any outcome is possible. That won't change until probably sometime this weekend. Yeah I was gonna say that I was wondering if there was a scenario where one of the first two waves acts as a 50/50 as it departs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: High is retreating so no confluence or 50/50 to lock it in. Basically it just gets bullied. I can easily see how it could be more snow or even all snow but at the same token I can see how it could be just ZR to rain. Not a good setup for all snow so I'm expecting a mixed event of some variety unless a semblance of a 50/50 or confluence starts showing up. I see, thanks. When you just look at the MSLP panels that high to the N was huge improvement over 0z...as Ji mentioned. But the primary gets all the way up Erie.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Fozz said: About those wind barbs.... at which level should I be looking at? 850mb? 850 and 500 but 850 is the most important when it comes to marginal and ptype. The issue is we have ridging in front of the shortwave. The hp could be 1060mbs and still retreat. A transient 50/50 could turn the whole thing into a monster event. EPS will be interesting to see if mid and upper levels are degrading or improving. Ultimately we want northerly midlevel flow as precip is on the doorstep and that will require flat/confluent flow in the mids and upper levels no further north than say NYC but central PA would be better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yeah, as someone else mentioned, this looks to me like Vday 2007. It was a nice event, but could've been much better. I hate ice storms on bare ground. But if we have snowcover a nice preserving 3” solid ice glacier on top can be fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 38 minutes ago, BristowWx said: not to deb but look at the trend. its continuing to shift north and its only Tuesday. with nothing to really keep it south there is little to stop north trend to a point of course. I think it's not that great for DC metro as is compared to previous. Trend? Did this not just sort of appear on our radar yesterday? Maybe the night before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 850 and 500 but 850 is the most important when it comes to marginal and ptype. The issue is we have ridging in front of the shortwave. The hp could be 1060mbs and still retreat. A transient 50/50 could turn the whole thing into a monster event. EPS will be interesting to see if mid and upper levels are degrading or improving. Ultimately we want northerly midlevel flow as precip is on the doorstep and that will require flat/confluent flow in the mids and upper levels no further south than say NYC but central PA would be better. Could one of the first two waves do the trick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Here's another good visual. The space between the tough in the west and 50/50 is too wide so ridging pokes northward. The lobe over Hudson needs to press down to the Great Lakes in order to force the storm underneath us. It's possible for sure but this panel shows how far away we are for a nice all snow event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Could one of the first two waves do the trick? Sure. The panel I just posted shows the 50/50 too far east and not effective so either that has to be located further west or the lobe in between the trough in the west and 50/50 needs to be a good bit south. A lot of days in front of us and the whole event could end up being nothing close to what we're already seeing. Just pointing out features to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hate ice storms on bare ground. But if we have snowcover a nice preserving 3” solid ice glacier on top can be fun. yes if we can get 3-5 inches of snow first...it could be a really fun wintry event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: You better delete your fb then Yep. Enjoy your ice Thanks cosgrove 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hate ice storms on bare ground. But if we have snowcover a nice preserving 3” solid ice glacier on top can be fun. Except if you have 4 legged kids... looks like I could be spreading salt in the back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Thanks cosgrove Remember, you must enjoy your one inch of ice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 the Canadien is funny...it usually only shows winter storm when no other model shows it. But when the euro/gfs has a storm, it usually shows rain/cutter/warm. I dont get that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Goodness the weenie is crazy in the 12Z suite today. Not sure I like being in the bullseye 4 days out. But what a beautiful set of runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, Steve25 said: So you're "out" on the threats over the next 10 days because of HM? Not out but there is a reason the storm will be a snow to ice to rain mix It happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 DT Aleeting hours ago --- LOL! People all talking that he had ended winter.. that was until he didn't.. LOL! As far as the pattern, I am very worried about a lot of close calls more than ice. Also, we are too close to the bullseye on Saturday.. it will likely shift north and that again could leave some heartbreak. The pattern is almost good but not great! Seems like it may be great when I am out of town the last week of Feb though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 We need to keep the D8+ deal in perspective a little. We just drilled down to fine details on an op run with more than a week to go. lol. Before we get to that period we still need to get through the current departing storm and 3 additional shortwaves embedded in the flow. The cascading effect of each feature greatly reduces accuracy as time goes on. The only guidance we should drill down with the details are the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: DT Aleeting hours ago --- LOL! People all talking that he had ended winter.. that was until he didn't.. LOL! As far as the pattern, I am very worried about a lot of close calls more than ice. Also, we are too close to the bullseye on Saturday.. it will likely shift north and that again could leave some heartbreak. The pattern is almost good but not great! Seems like it may be great when I am out of town the last week of Feb though. we got some breathing room lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 drilling down for the purpose of explanation is appreciated though even if it's meaningless in terms of the actual storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Gfs shows less SE riding then every other model. Probably why it has the most snow and should be considered an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We need to keep the D8+ deal in perspective a little. We just drilled down to fine details on an op run with more than a week to go. lol. Before we get to that period we still need to get through the current departing storm and 3 additional shortwaves embedded in the flow. The cascading effect of each feature greatly reduces accuracy as time goes on. The only guidance we should drill down with the details are the ensembles. the euro was all over the saturday storm just a few days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we got some breathing room lol. Well, we just need better and better look.. we did go from nothing to something fairly quick.. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Man, there's a lot to like on the EPS for next week... Even with the big spread in tracks, many of the solutions get it done around here. Weenie maps will be out shortly. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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