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Stormlover74

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

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13 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Yes, I've also had 2.3" here in the Bronx during the entire meteorological winter. The biggest event, aside from November, was the 1 3/4" snowfall that I recorded on Tuesday that was combined with sleet and ice. Incredible to think in some winters we see this amount of snow in an hour; others it takes a whole season to accumulate a few measly inches. 

If we have a benign ending to the winter, this will be the least snowiest winter I've experienced since 01-02 when Dobbs Ferry only received 8" all winter. (I was in New Hampshire for the 11-12 winter, where we were well below average but still had over 50" with 25" coming in the October storm.) I've been incredibly lucky...had almost 50" in the Bronx last year, 58" in Southern Brooklyn in 13-14, nearly 70" in Dobbs Ferry in 09-10 and 10-11. But averages are averages for a reason, and we were due for a ratter. We're also seeing a continuation of the extremes where NYC sees fewer winters with 20-30", as was common in the 1980s, and more winters with 40"+ or <15". 

Yeah, I recently mentioned the lack of 20-30” snowfall seasons this decade. ISP is yet to have a single season in this range for the 2010’s. Most of the years this decade were 40” and above. 

ISP snowfall

1 2019-04-30 7.2 75
2 2018-04-30 65.9 0
3 2017-04-30 39.3 0
4 2016-04-30 41.4 0
5 2015-04-30 63.7 0
- 2014-04-30 63.7 0
7 2013-04-30 46.9 0
8 2012-04-30 4.7 0
9 2011-04-30 55.3 0
10 2010-04-30 53.8 0

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I recently mentioned the lack of 20-30” snowfall seasons this decade. ISP is yet to have a single season in this range for the 2010’s. Most of the years this decade were 40” and above. 

ISP snowfall

1 2019-04-30 7.2 75
2 2018-04-30 65.9 0
3 2017-04-30 39.3 0
4 2016-04-30 41.4 0
5 2015-04-30 63.7 0
- 2014-04-30 63.7 0
7 2013-04-30 46.9 0
8 2012-04-30 4.7 0
9 2011-04-30 55.3 0
10 2010-04-30 53.8 0

How did ISP get so much last year? I had 48" in the Bronx. Did they get a lot more in the January 950mb megastorm?

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15 minutes ago, nzucker said:

How did ISP get so much last year? I had 48" in the Bronx. Did they get a lot more in the January 950mb megastorm?

ISP picked up 15.8 with the 950 mb benchmark blizzard. They were also in a prime location for the heaviest late season snows.

ISP 17-18

Dec....6.0

Jan.....22.0

Feb.....1.4

Mar.....31.9

Apr.......4.6

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4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Are we talking Wednesday at day or Wednesday night into Thursday? 

Wednesday day into night

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another day that the highs beat guidance. 60 degrees at Newark now. 3rd 60 degree day this February.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kewr

That was a given, idk why forecasters never go over on days like this. 

I think we will score some light events next week. There's a ton of confluence that's acting like a 50/50 low helping to keep systems from getting too amped. 

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nao is taking a dip to  negative next week. EPO is negative and mjo 8.

A lot of favorable things for this storm.

Using sound meteorology to prognosticate, not just model hug.  Thumbs up. 

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4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Using sound meteorology to prognosticate, not just model hug.  Thumbs up. 

The southeast ridge is still there so there will be a fight between the ridge and confluence.

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29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That was a given, idk why forecasters never go over on days like this. 

I think we will score some light events next week. There's a ton of confluence that's acting like a 50/50 low helping to keep systems from getting too amped. 

63 now at Newark.

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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another day that the highs beat guidance. 60 degrees at Newark now. 3rd 60 degree day this February.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kewr 

yeah I was a little surprised at how mild it felt outside in lower Manhattan now. Big spread in temps though.  Staten Island is 61 while Queens Mesonet is 49. That not by the Rockaways either that's Queens College off the LIE.

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29 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nao is taking a dip to  negative next week. EPO is negative and mjo 8.

A lot of favorable things for this storm.

Slop to all rain setup once again, only this time the antecedent air mass isn’t as cold. It is not favorable for this storm either

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15 minutes ago, dWave said:

yeah I was a little surprised at how mild it felt outside in lower Manhattan now. Big spread in temps though.  Staten Island is 61 while Queens Mesonet is 49. That not by the Rockaways either that's Queens College off the LIE.

Cooler along the shores with the southerly flow and 41 degree ocean temperatures.

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32 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The southeast ridge is still there so there will be a fight between the ridge and confluence.

But if teles are more favorable this time around, let's hope the confluence is stronger than last go 

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

How many times are you going to keep doing this, this winter? Serious question? You’ve been super hyping everything into a snowstorm for going on 4 months now, with less than 2 inches total to show for it 

What about other winters though? I've noticed for years you downplay every snow threat. It has worked well for you this winter, but other recent winters when we had way above normal snowfall you were wrong most of the time. The way you post makes it seem as if you hate snow, yet your name is snowman. You have every right to like whatever type of weather you like, but I'm just curious ...... do you like snow or not? If you don't then maybe you should change your name to summerMan or something like that lol.

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10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

What about other winters though? I've noticed for years you downplay every snow threat. It has worked well for you this winter, but other recent winters when we had way above normal snowfall you were wrong most of the time. The way you post makes it seem as if you hate snow, yet your name is snowman. You have every right to like whatever type of weather you like, but I'm just curious ...... do you like snow or not? If you don't then maybe you should change your name to summerMan or something like that lol.

New contest: Pick an alternate name for Snowman 19. I sorta like the one he has. As always ....

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

That was a given, idk why forecasters never go over on days like this. 

I think we will score some light events next week. There's a ton of confluence that's acting like a 50/50 low helping to keep systems from getting too amped. 

My forecast was actually lowered this morning from upper 50s to low 50s. Meanwhile it's 63

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19 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

What about other winters though? I've noticed for years you downplay every snow threat. It has worked well for you this winter, but other recent winters when we had way above normal snowfall you were wrong most of the time. The way you post makes it seem as if you hate snow, yet your name is snowman. You have every right to like whatever type of weather you like, but I'm just curious ...... do you like snow or not? If you don't then maybe you should change your name to summerMan or something like that lol.

I have no clue how he said the airmass this upcoming Wednesday will be worse than this past storm yet the models today show more snow lol

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Slop to all rain setup once again, only this time the antecedent air mass isn’t as cold. It is not favorable for this storm either

That's very surprising you would say that. :deadhorse:

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