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Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

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the flakes are small but it is pouring snow right now.  already a dusting+ on the ground

 

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Trust me, there has been an internal debate on this else where. I'll let [mention=3997]RCNYILWX[/mention] explain more if he wants to.
But for now it stays WWA, and an upgrade may or may not happen.
I fully agree a WSW should be n effect though. Amounts will be near or exceed criteria, combined with winds, commute on a Monday morning...
I'm not going to be critical of decisions made today at my office, was there for the internal discussion, certainly not an easy call. However, personally I would've done the upgrade from Lee and Ogle and eastward to Cook for many of the same reasons mentioned (impacts to rush hour, heavy rates, wind, etc) plus pretty good likelihood of getting warning criteria amounts in well under the typical 6"/12 hour standard. We'll see how it all plays out.

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24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm not going to be critical of decisions made today at my office, was there for the internal discussion, certainly not an easy call. However, personally I would've done the upgrade from Lee and Ogle and eastward to Cook for many of the same reasons mentioned (impacts to rush hour, heavy rates, wind, etc) plus pretty good likelihood of getting warning criteria amounts in well under the typical 6"/12 hour standard. We'll see how it all plays out.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, given this new forecast snowfall from 10 minutes ago, I am not sure why the warnings weren't extended south.  

image.png.1646a9d2096328a27955a4650c755318.png

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So far the snow is fairly granulated from the wind which may keep ratios in check.  Was thinking 13:1 earlier, but it may be more like 10:1.  Should see some nice rippage though for the next few hours before the dry slot arrives.  3-5" still looks decent, but may be on the low end of that.  

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9 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said:

Southeast Michigan still lacks model consensus. HRRR showing 4-5. Canadian showing 6. GFS just came in with 8. NAM at 5. Guess we'll see what happens.

4 - 8 inches sounds like a pretty good consensus to me?

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7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

So far the snow is fairly granulated from the wind which may keep ratios in check.  Was thinking 13:1 earlier, but it may be more like 10:1.  Should see some nice rippage though for the next few hours before the dry slot arrives.  3-5" still looks decent, but may be on the low end of that.  

Like the look of the radar out your way.  I think your fate will be mine, roughly speaking, so try to get to 5" please.  :snowing:

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Like the look of the radar out your way.  I think your fate will be mine, roughly speaking, so try to get to 5" please.  :snowing:

Haha.  Looks pretty legit out there right now with the wind whipping and fairly low visibility.  Quite the change from yesterday's snow glober.  Later on as the back edge approaches the snow may get more convective and hopefully the flake size improves with that.  Temps will be a bit warmer as well.  The good news is even if we only get 2-3" it would be a fairly dense snow which won't compact.  Similar to that wind-blown event we had with the Jan 18-19th event.

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

I've heard there's some debate and I'm sure both sides have merit...my lean is this should definitely be a warning, though given they just updated their grids to bump downtown Chicago to slightly over 6" and held with an advisory my guess is at this point there won't be an upgrade.  I don't want to come off as looking for a reason to complain about a random NWS office.  I discussed the Chicago forecast with the met putting it together at work late this afternoon and was surprised by no warning, and was wondering if anyone here was chiming in or not. 

Thoughts on GRR's southern counties then?

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31 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Thoughts on GRR's southern counties then?

Since you asked, I do not agree with GRR's decision here.

I think IWX boxing them in with a warning in their SW MI counties despite forecasting the exact same amounts of snow sums it up well.

I am not sure why their advisory expires at 7 PM Monday when LES kicks in quickly Monday evening. 

GRR's southern counties will be getting heavy snow/wind during the rush with temps remaining very cold until later morning, worst conditions during and just after the rush.  Then unlike northern IL they see squally lake effect snow showers with gusty winds and falling temps kick in immediately behind the storm Monday evening and lingering into Wednesday, which I think will just cause roads to just become snow packed as the cold weather sets in.  The lake effect will also be good at reducing visibility as the cold lowers the DGZ below the clouds, resulting in a lot of small flakes falling with gusty winds.  Not great for heavy accumulations but still will impact travel for an extended time in conjunction with winds chills getting close to their warning criteria.  This all shoots down "how long it takes to get back to normal" criteria they mentioned earlier in the winter.  Amounts hit criteria anyways.  And it's high impact and prolonged.  So I'll just leave it as I don't agree with GRR.  It should probably be a long duration WSW through the day Tuesday at least, IMO. 

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That convective looking band the models keep hinting at ahead of the cold front over extreme eastern IL into IN and southern MI looks interesting.  Some decent PVA and lapse rates are almost steep enough for upright instability/CAPE through the DGZ.  If it’s all snow (which it probably can be at least farther north?) it might be quite exciting for a time.  

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The front edge of the snow in NE IL is still saturating the dry low-level air, and lift in the DGZ improves with the heavier precip in a few hours.  I think between the two flake size improves over the next few hours, though with a rather narrow DGZ and best lift focused JUST below it ratios probably aren't out of control...probably a 12-15:1 as opposed to the typical clipper 18 or 20. 

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A bit over 2" now, but the back edge of the main snow band is less than a half hour away.  Looks like we'll end up at, or just shy of 3".  Nice little event, but a bit too fleeting to be noteworthy for this particular area.  Still will be enough to get our snow depth up over 16", so def no complaints from me lol.

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Flake size is abysmal, straight sugar falling. Granted, it is pouring and drifting is becoming an issue. 

Unless flake size really kicks up a notch, going to fall short of estimate. 

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2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Flake size is abysmal, straight sugar falling. Granted, it is pouring and drifting is becoming an issue. 

Unless flake size really kicks up a notch, going to fall short of estimate. 

FWIW the flake size stayed very small during the heaviest band when it moved through here.  

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6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

FWIW the flake size stayed very small during the heaviest band when it moved through here.  

That’s what I was afraid of. Staying awake (rocking the baby, sweet excuse to watch it snow) until this next heavier band works through, but if it’s pixie dust, it may be bed time. 

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1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

That’s what I was afraid of. Staying awake (rocking the baby, sweet excuse to watch it snow) until this next heavier band works through, but if it’s pixie dust, it may be bed time. 

It's like grains of fine sand falling out here. I'm throwing in the towel and calling it a night. If I wake up to 3 inches in the morning I'll be surprised. 

The timing and blowing around is going to make travel horrendous in the AM so I don't fault my daughter's school being canceled. 

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Two things are apparent right now...Guidance that came in drier this evening (NAM/HRRR/ECMWF) had the right idea. Also, snow ratios are much lower, at least to start, than thought.

The combo of these two means snowfall totals for most areas will likely under-perform.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Two things are apparent right now...Guidance that came in drier this evening (NAM/HRRR/ECMWF) had the right idea. Also, snow ratios are much lower, at least to start, than thought.

The combo of these two means snowfall totals for most areas will likely under-perform.

I went into this with the expectation of fairly low ratios down here... maybe 10 or 12 to 1 at best, so hopefully it doesn't come in lower than that.

Also, it's looking like the northwestern row of counties in IN has a chance to come in with similar totals as much of Chicago metro, as that band of precip swings northeast later.  What do you think?

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