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Late January-Early February Clipper Train


Hoosier
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8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

If the new Euro is correct we'd be looking at potential snow depth records around here, as there's already a good 8-12" (counting tonight's snows) on the ground.

...Camera pans, man sitting next to roaring fireplace smoking a pipe, peering over his snow covered yard...

“We had a few rough years, but that’s in the past now.”

(Cyclone pats the snow magnet he secured during a dangerous trek to Mt Geos) 

“Snow depth record, here we come” (cranks magnet to 11) 

 

 

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From LOT:

“The timeframe of highest concern for potentially significant (6"+)
snow accumulations is Sunday night through Monday. Models and
ensembles are in unusually good agreement this far out in a strong
clipper/Pacific hybrid type system affecting the region. This
system will have a very impressive thermal gradient/baroclinic
zone to work with, along with possibly up to 150-200% of typical
PWAT for late January, also eye-opening considering the cold
antecedent air mass. Ultimately the track of the system will
dictate who gets how much snow, but felt comfortable with the
categorical PoPs in blended guidance given strong guidance
agreement. A somewhat northward displaced track could even
introduce p-type concerns into portions of the area considering
aforementioned thermal gradient over the region, with a low track
over northern IL favoring Wisconsin for highest snowfall. It also
appears that it will become windy/breezy with the snow, so
blowing/drifting snow could become an issue. We will certainly be
watching this period closely.

Finally, in the wake of the potential Sunday night-Monday snow
event, the concern is what could be a brutally cold shot of Arctic
air in the middle of next work week. While the GFS suite of
guidance is cold, the ECMWF/ensemble suite is particularly
concerning for extreme/record cold. To highlight this, the
ensemble mean of 51 member European ensemble is indicating 850 mb
temperature anomalies of 20+ degrees Celsius below normal next
Wednesday. If a piece of the tropospheric polar vortex can move
over the region as shown on the 12z operational ECMWF, that would
help maximize how cold it gets. Still plenty of time for changes
in this period, but even less cold GFS suite would favor some type
of wind chill headlines next Tuesday night through Wednesday
night.”
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7 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

...Camera pans, man sitting next to roaring fireplace smoking a pipe, peering over his snow covered yard...

“We had a few rough years, but that’s in the past now.”

(Cyclone pats the snow magnet he secured during a dangerous trek to Mt Geos) 

“Snow depth record, here we come” (cranks magnet to 11) 

 

 

Haha!  Actually it was a black ops mission to Detroit to steal it from Josh, who had previously stolen it from Mt. Geos.  :snowman:

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17 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

If the new Euro is correct we'd be looking at potential snow depth records around here, as there's already a good 8-12" (counting tonight's snows) on the ground.

Happy for ya!  Our snow pack got annihilated today.  Just hoping we can cash in on a few inches over the next week to cover up this frozen muck lol.

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18 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Happy for ya!  Our snow pack got annihilated today.  Just hoping we can cash in on a few inches over the next week to cover up this frozen muck lol.

Sigh.  As did ours. Lost most of it late in the day, every time there's a day like this I always hope we will lose less than we do. Calling the average snow depth now 1". Plenty of spots have more, but there are also bare spots. Once everything continues to freeze up at least it will resemble Winter over the complete bare ground that we had for most of December through mid January.

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5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I feel pretty good about this one for the Chicago metro. A bit unnerving the northern shifts in this afternoons guidance, but as we saw with the last two systems, south trend inside 72 hours is the way to go

I concur. Besides, the northward shift isn't universal (right? lol). IIRC, the FV3 was actually to our south with the heaviest snow. I think we're looking as good as any city for now. 

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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea we are a long ways from knowing where this is going to track. Gfs being gfs bouncing all over. I feel I80 north will be the jackpot for this. Just a hunch. But I seen time and time again where these trend south in time but this isn't solely a clipper and more of a hybrid so hard to say

CMC remains steadfast south. 

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