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Ji

January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

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Icon should be an interesting run. We need some good news today. that should do negative tilt before it hits East coast

 

icon_z500_vort_us_47.png

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Icon should be an interesting run. We need some good news today. that should do negative tilt before it hits East coast

 

icon_z500_vort_us_47.png

NS sw comes in and boots it once it transfers to the SC coast

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The setup on the Op Euro is eerily similar to 1993.  It’s just not as strong of a system but it digs into the Gulf more than a normal storm ever does.  You rarely see places like Greenville or Atlanta near a CCB in a system.  The difference is the setup across the Lakes is poor and there is is more of a WAR than 93 so the system isn’t anywhere close to as cold up the coast 

Go big or go home 

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Just some slight encouragement from today's NCEP 3-7 day discussion:

"ANOTHER ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE EAST EXISTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MON. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEEN LESS THAN AVERAGE, THE 00 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE SHOULD EXTEND FAIRLY FAR SOUTHWARD GIVEN THE COLD PATTERN BECOMING  ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY."

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Woof...This would be fun...too bad it’s the phase happy CMC.

8DBCD2FE-ACD6-4FFA-8D44-B3AB705BEF59.png

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Just now, LP08 said:

Woof...This would be fun...too bad it’s the phase happy CMC.

8DBCD2FE-ACD6-4FFA-8D44-B3AB705BEF59.png

basically its the 1993 track without the cold air 

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By the looks of the pattern next Sun-Mon is another needle threader. Either gets squashed by the PV or if phased lots of warm air aloft being punched in. A week out so this is just cloud talk and conjecture obviously. We can certainly score but I think we do better after the pv starts to pull back just after that period. Certainly intriguing seeing some very deep lows along the GOM and SE and mid Atl coast on models this time of the year. Keeping expectations in check for now.

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GGEM storm at D9-10 would sure end this January on a good note!

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9 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Woof...This would be fun...too bad it’s the phase happy CMC.

8DBCD2FE-ACD6-4FFA-8D44-B3AB705BEF59.png

yeah that is a potentially a doozy.  A look at surface is one you wont often see...even if it wont happen.  Here it is for fun

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

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plus, fwiw, the CMC has a follow up looming down in Alabama that 500 pattern verbatim would put the MA right in the crosshairs.  Takeaway to me, is a better window of opportunity is looming.

 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Gfs blows.  Says what storm. 

Yeah, concerning, but at 7+ we all know there is plenty of time for change.

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Just now, pasnownut said:

Yeah, concerning, but at 7+ we all know there is plenty of time for change.

what's the odds the gfs will get back to back storms right?

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Just now, pasnownut said:

plus, fwiw, the CMC has a follow up looming down in Alabama that 500 pattern verbatim would put the MA right in the crosshairs.  Takeaway to me, is a better window of opportunity is looming.

 

I agree.  Looks like we will have our chances for sure, no matter what the GFS says.  By the way I noticed you were from Akron, I was born and raised in Ephrata 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, concerning, but at 7+ we all know there is plenty of time for change.

Oh yeah, for sure.  Not sweating it. Just noticing how it sucks and different than the cmc.  Which we know is a shit model. 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, concerning, but at 7+ we all know there is plenty of time for change.

Again, the period has potential.  I would never ever worry about the 7 day forecast in this state of flux, and when the GFS and the CMC are used for that range, well just forget it. There are some things lining up that make the Jan 27 -28  th threat legit.  But, yeah, I see what you are saying and one thing is 100 %certain,  things will change in the next model cycles.   

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5 minutes ago, kdskidoo said:

what's the odds the gfs will get back to back storms right?

That’s why I’m concerned. Lol

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2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

cmc 210-234 for $500 please

Be nice to see that at end of the upcoming EURO run. Imagine, a storm system coming up to the benchmark from the GOM.

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5 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said:

I agree.  Looks like we will have our chances for sure, no matter what the GFS says.  By the way I noticed you were from Akron, I was born and raised in Ephrata 

As was I. Pm me. Small world. 

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either the GFS model is trash or the pattern is trash. They both cant be right

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If I'm being honest, from 7 days out, the only model I really want to see showing a snowstorm is the Euro. I don't start to put any trust in CMC, GFS, and FV3 until we get within 5 days. There's definitely a signal for some type of storm around next Monday. Details are extremely blurry. 

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46 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Just some slight encouragement from today's NCEP 3-7 day discussion:

"ANOTHER ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE EAST EXISTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MON. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEEN LESS THAN AVERAGE, THE 00 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE SHOULD EXTEND FAIRLY FAR SOUTHWARD GIVEN THE COLD PATTERN BECOMING  ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY."

that's good enough for me right now.  I always imagine they have access to some super ensemble that give them confidence to make a statement like that...probably don't but it would be nice to think that. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

either the GFS model is trash or the pattern is trash. They both cant be right

They said the transition period over the last part of January would feature big temp swings and a lot of back and forth with the models, but things would be more stable once the big cold settles in at the beginning of February.  I hope we get one of those long lead-time tracking events in a couple weeks.

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