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January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker


Ji
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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol- and follows it up with an overrunning event. Ji clearly learned how to hack ncep this afternoon

gfs_namer_198_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Wow--Totally different from what his older brother put put this run, lol

P.S. (and you and psu are quickly turning this thread R-rated with your talk of German models and porn, ya scadals!)

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

P.S. (and you and psu are quickly turning this thread R-rated with your talk of German models and porn, ya scadals!)

For once maybe the FV3 will be on to something.  It has to start somewhere. 

Pretty remarkable run there.  

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow--Totally different from what his older brother put put this run, lol

P.S. (and you and psu are quickly turning this thread R-rated with your talk of German models and porn, ya scadals!)

Just don't expect anything to hold until we're inside of 5 days. This setup is the exact opposite of a long track storm. Multiple moving parts and windshield wipers are on high. 

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11 minutes ago, luckyamaha said:

850s look great as well for whatever reason we can try and hope for this to hold and we should be good. But the FV3 is a much better model in my opinion now going forward95f69cdfa320ba3b5c00e3559f4803a2.jpg&key=4b7c5b5fe19e04e82f9976d3ea7b45cd290e6865e838b5d124cfd68866b4ab34

 

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It would be nice if it held but i'm 100% sure it won't this far out in time. Gefs basically has no storm at all. It can happen because the ingredients are there but if people get mad when it doesn't hold they are expecting waaay too much from long lead op runs.

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44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just don't expect anything to hold until we're inside of 5 days. This setup is the exact opposite of a long track storm. Multiple moving parts and windshield wipers are on high. 

Oh trust me I've heard that message loud and clear...(I feel like we oughta add a tag to both this and the other thread that says "chaos tracking", lol) Cranky's "benchmark" approach would be wise here...Wednesday to start taking seriously at the earliest!

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It would be nice if it held but i'm 100% sure it won't this far out in time. Gefs basically has no storm at all. It can happen because the ingredients are there but if people get mad when it doesn't hold they are expecting waaay too much from long lead op runs.

Well 12z EPS does have the low off hatters for what that's worth as well. Will wait until Thursday to really get a handle on the next event

 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It would be nice if it held but i'm 100% sure it won't this far out in time. Gefs basically has no storm at all. It can happen because the ingredients are there but if people get mad when it doesn't hold they are expecting waaay too much from long lead op runs.

Thought I read that the GEFS is still the "old" Gfs and the Fv3 wont factor in until later down the road.  I say that because the GFS op is notably different looking at surface and GEFS derived from it, so its not totally surprising that GEFS doesnt have "the look" yet.

 

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Just now, luckyamaha said:

Well 12z EPS does have the low off hatters for what that's worth as well. Will wait until Thursday to really get a handle on the next event

 

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The mslp panel is midleading on the eps. There are practically no snowstorms out of 50 members. I want a snowstorm as bad as anyone here. I just get ticked off when the whine and cheese party starts after an op run beyond its skill range jumps around or loses a storm. Right now there is literally no ensemble support for what the fv3 spit out.

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thought I read that the GEFS is still the "old" Gfs and the Fv3 wont factor in until later down the road.  I say that because the GFS op is notably different looking at surface and GEFS derived from it, so its not totally surprising that GEFS doesnt have "the look" yet.

 

Eps doesn't have it either. Less than 10% of the members showed a storm that drops more than 2" in the region. The gefs is still a decent multi member suite so comparing that skill to the op isn't fair. 

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12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thought I read that the GEFS is still the "old" Gfs and the Fv3 wont factor in until later down the road.  I say that because the GFS op is notably different looking at surface and GEFS derived from it, so its not totally surprising that GEFS doesnt have "the look" yet.

 

I saw a PowerPoint last year that showed a timeline of the "FV3" going mainstream this month but as we have all seen, at least LR wise, verification's have been shoddy so they may have delayed it. 

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps doesn't have it either. Less than 10% of the members showed a storm that drops more than 2" in the region. The gefs is still a decent multi member suite so comparing that skill to the op isn't fair. 

Yeah I know its sorta out on its own (well the CMC likes the storm), and I agree about the GEFS for sure.  Just saying that the Fv3 is notably different surface than its daddy.  

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5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I saw a PowerPoint last year that showed a timeline of the "FV3" going mainstream this month but as we have all seen, at least LR wise, verification's have been shoddy so they may have delayed it. 

Yeah, I thought it was shared that it is being delayed due to some "issues". 

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42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It would be nice if it held but i'm 100% sure it won't this far out in time. Gefs basically has no storm at all. It can happen because the ingredients are there but if people get mad when it doesn't hold they are expecting waaay too much from long lead op runs.

Lol you spelled ji wrong 

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32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps doesn't have it either. Less than 10% of the members showed a storm that drops more than 2" in the region. The gefs is still a decent multi member suite so comparing that skill to the op isn't fair. 

So I mean...if there was still potential for this thing...wouldn't there be at least a little more ensemble support at this point? (I know op runs are jumpy...but is it possible we see a run where they ensembles suddenly jump on it?)

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About the only thing on the GFS 1800 run was a clipper system by next Tuesday.  Nothing for the weekend.  And until I see otherwise, I'm not expecting anything.  Say what you want about the GFS but once it locks down on the 5 day period, it's very consistent and more often than not, pretty accurate.  Who knows, maybe something will magically appear by tomorrow or Wednesday but I'm not holding my breath.  Hell, I'd love to have a winter of nothing but energized Clipper systems.  At least you know they'll be snow. 

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So I mean...if there was still potential for this thing...wouldn't there be at least a little more ensemble support at this point? (I know op runs are jumpy...but is it possible we see a run where they ensembles suddenly jump on it?)

I'd sure like to see ensembles show a stronger signal. It's not a requirement though. We've had plenty of events sneak up in the med range unannounced. Basically an op will show a hit ensembles jump in. Usually only happens during progressive patterns where choas takes over pretty quick. Fast flow is really hard for any model or ensemble to get right once you get out beyond 4-5 days.

I absolutely believe this storm is possible. The ingredients are there. They just have to line up just right. Not much wiggle room. However, seeing limited ensemble support is a red flag. That can change. Needs to happen pretty quick here. 

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