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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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Just now, canderson said:

Looked like it was flipping before that to me but my eyes suck. 

 

Yea it looked a lot worse than the NAM but the panels on the GFS are 6 hours and Nam 3 so the snow seems to go out faster but it is snowing in between panels (my interpretation).

image.thumb.png.70443f93a9cea7193aa463c0f116e941.png

 

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GFS's soon to be big brother is much more NAM like.   This panel is close to or right after the flip to sleet in LSV.  @pasnownut is not going to accept it showing 6-8 for him.  LOL.  Its been a fun night of "As the Model Turns"

image.thumb.png.69158a11f7cfd11ae9e196c5a167c87e.png

 

 

 

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I think it still looks like a good chance of a 4-8" snow for the southern half of PA, except far SW and far SE, with some areas getting under a jet streak and pushing into double digits whether in PA or N Md.   GFS and FV3 are both having lackluster winters (IMO) so unless the Euro goes pretty far south I am guessing NWS stays with their WSW's.  

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25 minutes ago, canderson said:

Hard to bet against the GFS to me, given it’s stability the past four days and seasonal record. 

I think the GFS has been pushing the warm air north too quick for most of our events this winter but the idea of keeping heaviest precip just to our south it is currently not alone.  Euro EPS is south of OP and UKMET is with the GFS too and current NWS and NCEP forecasts seem to be favoring GFS/GEFS for some reason.  Just feels like NAM is going too crazy with QPF early on in event right now so blend of the two puts @Cashtown_Coop in bullseye again lol.  

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Could not head off without posting this impressive HRRR pic.  6 AM Wed and the hounds of major snows are just starting for us.  The 700MB line still in South VA at this point.

 

image.thumb.png.e3badacdee6e763351a50489e55dc895.png

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CTP's early morning take on snowfall. They mention in their updated AFD that they're waiting one more cycle for headline updates (probably 12z models). I would think given overnight runs and early 6z stuff that we're on track for the watch area to be warnings at the least. Most everybody else should see advisories except perhaps the far NW of the CWA. Could argue a few more counties may get into the warning (UNV-SEG) region if some of the more robust further north solutions we've seen have their way, but right now I think these numbers are pretty good. Pretty similar to the Euro, which I feel has been a pretty good compromise of things. Regardless of headlines, the dual snow/ice combo will present a high impact to travel from the I-80 corridor south. 

StormTotalSnowWeb.thumb.png.e66ca08f8da3bb2d1ff44a3d1613fd8e.png

 

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Just now, anotherman said:


Ji?

That’s great! He should just say that it’s an “epic disaster “

 At least @canderson sometimes makes bets in regard to how much snow Harrisburg gets & offers to buy us a beer if we get a certain amount of snow!

I’m just having some fun here. I really enjoy his comments most of the time.

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Changing oil in three trucks today and making sure everything is good to go. Looks like this will be a quick, heavy hitter and leave a nice mess behind. At least when we’re cleanjng up on Thursday, it should be sunny and pleasant in the mid to upper 40s. This storm should put at us budget for the season. Kind of surprising since we haven’t had many snows this year. Boy have we used a bunch of salt/calcium though. 

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So what are the odds this turns into a big ice storm? They're already calling for 0.25in around harrisburg. I hate ice. I have a friend who used to live in missouri that lost power for a month because of a crippling ice storm. Hoping nothing like that happens here lol

 

Edit: Didn't see the post above lol since I wrote that post out a while ago. Yeah looking like the ice threat could be bad.

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18 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

So what are the odds this turns into a big ice storm? They're already calling for 0.25in around harrisburg. I hate ice. I have a friend who used to live in missouri that lost power for a month because of a crippling ice storm. Hoping nothing like that happens here lol

 

Edit: Didn't see the post above lol since I wrote that post out a while ago. Yeah looking like the ice threat could be bad.

Ice is always my big worry as well. Usually when they're calling for it, it never really pans out. No science behind this, but i have a weird gut feeling this time that this back end ice is going to be an issue. 

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EC and Nam stayed steady and GFS caved to the others and is now well into PA so we probably have our best idea now.  Euro still insistent on 8-12" in far Western LV before sleet takes over.

image.png.9819eb6ba9808e5d59c6c8d4cf9b7904.png

 

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good morning @AllWeather !

What are your thoughts on this storm?

I think you guys have a pretty good handle on it. Reminds me of the November storm. I like 4-8” across the LSV before changing over. More in northern/western spots, especially at elevations. I’ve always tends to underperform from models but could see some 0.25” amounts with a few spots more than that in the typical sheltered “bowls”. 

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8 hours ago, bubbler86 said:

GFS's soon to be big brother is much more NAM like.   This panel is close to or right after the flip to sleet in LSV.  @pasnownut is not going to accept it showing 6-8 for him.  LOL.  Its been a fun night of "As the Model Turns"

image.thumb.png.69158a11f7cfd11ae9e196c5a167c87e.png

 

 

 

Uh....that shows 3-5.5” for me. 

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

CTP's early morning take on snowfall. They mention in their updated AFD that they're waiting one more cycle for headline updates (probably 12z models). I would think given overnight runs and early 6z stuff that we're on track for the watch area to be warnings at the least. Most everybody else should see advisories except perhaps the far NW of the CWA. Could argue a few more counties may get into the warning (UNV-SEG) region if some of the more robust further north solutions we've seen have their way, but right now I think these numbers are pretty good. Pretty similar to the Euro, which I feel has been a pretty good compromise of things. Regardless of headlines, the dual snow/ice combo will present a high impact to travel from the I-80 corridor south. 

StormTotalSnowWeb.thumb.png.e66ca08f8da3bb2d1ff44a3d1613fd8e.png

 

That seams reasonable. 

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Euro continues to target CTP with the best snow for this storm, followed by a good amount of ice.

 

9B4B7719-4408-4544-BEFF-36FB558D15DB.png

C5D9CB58-0DE0-4B61-B0AB-3ED1292242BB.png

It has been unvaivering. It and the NAM give one hope that this storm is happening 

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Uh....that shows 3-5.5” for me. 

Showed 6-8 in western Lancaster county.  Close enough for me to troll you over it.  The current FV3 did pull back some out your way. 

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35 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

It has been unvaivering. It and the NAM give one hope that this storm is happening 

The EPS & Euro Control have been locked in for several runs now as well. They both target CTP for the best snow!

 

BEDC0DEB-13E7-4307-8251-B622CFA05F45.png

E8DE4C1F-C0D3-42FE-AA69-328079575E3C.png

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16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The EPS & Euro Control have been locked in for several runs now as well. They both target CTP for the best snow!

 

BEDC0DEB-13E7-4307-8251-B622CFA05F45.png

E8DE4C1F-C0D3-42FE-AA69-328079575E3C.png

Yeah, I'd think Seven Springs, Raystown, Magville and of course that cashtown snowhog would have best chance at crackin a double digit number (and 10-11" would me max IMO).  With antecedent cold I always get concerned at how long it can hold, and as currently modeled, you need best forcing before column becomes marginal, and thats a couple hour window.  This isnt CCB's, so ratios would likely be 10:1, maybe 12:1 for a short period of time.  

Again, I'm not being a Deb, I'm being honest w/ myself and keeping expectations in check (one only needs to look back to last weeks bust and realize that this storm shares similarities), but as a whole still has better potential.  Its a nice storm all the same, and in this tough winter in the LSV, I'll take it just as modeled.

 

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4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

How about the euro.   It has been rock steady for 3 days now.   When it’s locked in like that, I wouldn’t bet against it. 

The storm in mid January had the euro giving us a foot the night before it rained all day. The GFS completely nailed that storm.

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That’s great! He should just say that it’s an “epic disaster “

 At least @canderson sometimes makes bets in regard to how much snow Harrisburg gets & offers to buy us a beer if we get a certain amount of snow!

I’m just having some fun here. I really enjoy his comments most of the time.

To my credit, I was looking at the GFS and miscalculated the changeover due to its 3 hr panels. I thought we got cutoff prior to when the model did. :)

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