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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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Just now, CT Rain said:

Tossing the low level thermals with the GFS but that would be a pretty nasty ice event down here. 

That would be ridiculous I think down in that area. If we are able to torch the midlevels as much as the GFS says, then someone in SNE would get a monster ice storm. I'm still guessing it doesn't end up that warm aloft, but we gotta consider it for sure.

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Just now, snowgeek said:


Like the good old days.....when both Boston and Albany could cash in with a storm.


.

1994

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2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

 congrats on 45K

Thanks

Good luck up there... hope you guys are able to get a nice snowstorm out of this 

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10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

damn what a QPF bomb

NAEFS was a slight increase in the strength of the IVT plume at 12z today, maybe a once every other year type event.

EPS was definitely stronger, with the return interval more like 5 to 10 years.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

NAEFS was a slight increase in the strength of the IVT plume at 12z today, maybe a once every other year type event.

EPS was definitely stronger, with the return interval more like 5 to 10 years.

The moisture plume coming from basically the Bay of Campeche gives me more confidence of higher QPF than usual. Not sure I am ready to buy 2-3" amounts north of the sfc front where convection will be less, but 1.5-2 might happen.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

NAEFS was a slight increase in the strength of the IVT plume at 12z today, maybe a once every other year type event.

EPS was definitely stronger, with the return interval more like 5 to 10 years.

I'm guessing you already have some of this loaded in the grids?

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Is the UKMET out anywhere yet and if so, how is it? I don't see it updating on the UQAM site.

When does it "normally" begin rolling out?

This is the best image that comes out before the normal maps at ~11:45

 

50565989_2217198101644936_5721638213483757568_n.jpg

  • Confused 1

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Harvey Leonard going with an off shore storm track. "Colder solution storm"  Doesn't believe the Arctic air can be moved.  Heavy snow and sleet at times.  Amount of sleet involved is based on final storm track. 11:00 PM NEWS CHANNEL 5

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The moisture plume coming from basically the Bay of Campeche gives me more confidence of higher QPF than usual. Not sure I am ready to buy 2-3" amounts north of the sfc front where convection will be less, but 1.5-2 might happen.

If you look at a Wilks 2006 reliability diagram for QPF you'll see that all models tend to have a wet bias for QPF. They too often are too wet. 

I'm trying to find a specific North American diagram with recent stats, but no luck. For Europe the EPS is something like 80% of the forecasts for heavy QPF, it actually occurs about 50% of the time. 

I suspect North America would be no different in that regard.

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